Nostalgia Diaries, Pt. 24: Season Ending SNF Games, Pt. 1 (2006 - 2013)

When NBC took over Sunday Night Football in the 2006 season, and basically made SNF into the main feature game of the week, we also got flexible scheduling and the ability to nominate any Week 17 game to the final SNF spot - or more succinctly, the final regular season game of the year. So often, these games have come near Christmas and New Year's (no more, with the 17-game, 18-week seasons). And so often, they've been great games that bring up great memories in my life given how often we've traveled during these holiday times.

2006 - Dec 31st: Chicago Bears - 7  @  Green Bay Packers - 26

Significance: None - not sure why this was not flexed out....

Where Was I: New Year's Eve Party at a Family Friends place

The Game: Admittedly an auspicious start for this idea. I'm trying to figure out if the flex scheduling wasn't a thing yet in 2006, or if there was just nothing better. I believe the Packers theoretically had a chance at the #6 seed coming into the week but by kickoff they were eliminated. The Bears were locked into the #1 seed weeks prior, but actually played in this meaningless game and was exceptionally bad, going 2-12 with 3 INTs and a 0.0 passer rating. Of course he would remain the starter playing ok enough to not kill the Bears chances to make the Super Bowl. The game would also be recalled, probably untruthfully so, as a bit of a springboard for the 2007 Packers team that went 13-3.

The Memory: I was at a family friend's place for New Year's Eve, and I distinctly remember watching this game, or at least having it playing on their TV in the upstairs where we were probably playing floor hockey or something. I remember being amused at how bad Rex Grossman was and how people pilloried him for playing like crap in a game that meant less than nothing. Granted, Grossman was just bad in general, but his poor play here absolutely did not carry over.

2007 - Dec 30th: Tennessee Titans - 16  @  Indianapolis Colts - 10

Significance; The Titans got the #6 seed in the AFC, where if they lost Cleveland would've made the playoffs

Where Was I: At home, pretty sure

The Game: Honestly, looking back it really was a rocky start (though things would get going soon). Here only the Titans cared about this game, and the Colts were more than happy to lay down and rest their starters (as they did constantly in the Manning/Polian era). The Titans still barely won the game, getting the #6 seed where they would fall meekly to the Chargers. The Browns were the real losers here, as their shocking 10-win season was for naught.

The Memory: Again, I have no real recollection of the actual game, as me like I'm sure many, checked out when it was clear the Colts would pull their starters. If anything, the real takeaway was the maddening "rest vs. rust" stuff that happened every time the Colts did this. of course, 2007 would be a great test case - the Colts did end up losing their playoff opener against the Chargers, but also Manning completed his first 16 passes in the game, so they definitely weren't "rusty".

2008 - Dec 28th: Denver Broncos - 21  @  San Diego Chargers - 52

Significance: Winner would win the AFC West, loser get's eliminated

Where Was I: Orlando, Florida at Main Street Disney

The Game: Three weeks prior, the Broncos were 8-5 and the Chargers were 5-8. The Chargers were a far better team even at that point, but the Broncos had that division (and Cutler and Shanahan). The Broncos sputtered, but the Chargers needed an onside recovery in Week 15 to stay alive and got what they wanted. One shot at the division. It wasn't close - the Chargers proved their superiority.

The Memory: We were in Florida that Christmas, which was from about 2002 - 2008 a common occurrence that hasn't repeated since. This year we went to Orlando, but mostly for shopping and other things instead of the parks. But on this day, we went to Downtown Disney for dinner. As a Colts fan that was locked in to playing the winner of this game, I was rooting so hard for the Broncos, because as they showed in this game they were way worse than the Chargers. I didn't really catch much of the game, it being ona couple of TV screens in the restaurant a good ways away - but I just knew after the Chargers pulled it out, that they would give the Colts a real good game, if not beat them outright (which they did). Such was the life of a, relatively, tortured Manning fan. My better memory of this Week 17 was watching the days slate in our hotel room while my family was out shopping - watching the Eagles pound the Cowboys by an orgnasmic 44-6. It was that type of day.

2009 - Jan 3rd: Cincinnati Bengals - 0  @  New York Jets - 37

Significance: Jets got the #5 seed with the win, would've missed playoffs (Steelers make it) had they lost

Where Was I: At home, pretty sure

The Game: I promise, a majoriy of these were good. Here the Bengals half-heartedly played their starters. They had clinched the division, and while technically they could have gotten the #3 seed, they deicded that #3 vs. #4 distinction was rather meaningless. The Jets pounded them and sneaked into the playoffs winning two straight games against resting teams. That type of year.

The Memory: Again, no real memory here. I went into this game more of the approach of a Colts fan smugly sitting wth the #1 seed, very much fine with the Jets sneaking into the playoffs. Sure, I would've liked that Bengals team which was pretty fun to follow that year (a bunch of comeback wins and great performances) to take the #3 seed over the Patriots, but in the end, I didn't fear the Jets, so letting them in the palyoffs instead of Pittsburgh felt fine.

2010 - Jan 2nd: St. Louis Rams - 6  @  Seattle Seahawks - 16

Significance: Winner would win the NFC West (with a losing record....), loser gets eliminated

Where Was I: India

The Game: Before it became a bit commonplace to see sub-.500 division winners, we saw a 7-8 Rams team, fresh off the #1 pick in the draft the year before go to a 6-9 Seahawks team. Charlie Whitehurst started the game for an injured Matt Hasselbeck, and played reasonably well. The Seahawks leaned on a defense that had a few of the first building blocks that would become the Legion of Boom, as they held the Rams to under 200 yards and won the game without too much fuss.

The Memory: I did not watch this game, being in India for my cousin's wedding. By June 2nd, we were traveling on our way to Mangalore (my parent's, and my ancestral, hometown), going there for the first time in 10 years. It was an emotional day for all other reasons than football. I do remember a bit of the outcry after the game - again this was the first time we had a sub-.500 division winner in the 32-team era. People immediately started saying there should be a .500 requirement to qualify and all this. Of course, a week later the 7-9 Seahawks would defeat the Saints in a crazy game (with Matt Hasselbeck back starting), and make a lot of the noise moot. It was a simpler time.

2011 - Jan 1st: Dallas Cowboys - 14  @  New York Giants - 31

Significance: Winner would win the NFC East, loser gets eliminated

Where Was I: At home, watching it live

The Game: The Cowboys led the NFC East much of the season, but a close loss to the Giants three weeks earlier in Dallas, and the Giants beating the Jets off a 99-yard TD by Victor Cruz, set up this win and your in match. In this one, the Giants did all the things that would then repeat themselves week over week through their Super Bowl win. Eli was great, the defense sacked Romo 6 times, they could run the ball when they needed to. It was a total ass whipping.

The Memory: 2011 was an odd season. There were a bunch of interesting storylines around the league (the 15-1 Packers, the Passing Explosion, the Harbaugh 49ers) but Manning's injury soured much of the year. This was a really nice "turn the page" moment ahead of what was a pretty great playoffs. I remember really just soaking up how much the New York crowd loved that game. One particular memory is seared in my brain. Following a Giants TD (either the one that put them up 21-0, or put them up 31-14), it was pretty clear the Giants wree going to win, and they played "Bang on the Drum All Day" and the crowd was singing along, air-banging on air-drums and all the rest, and it was just a great atmosphere. There's been so few of them for either New York team since opening MetLife in 2010, but this definitely was one.

2012 - Dec 30th: Dallas Cowboys - 18  @  Washington Team - 28

Significance: Winner would win the NFC East, loser gets eliminated

Where Was I: At home, watching it live

The Game: In maybe the peak of the RGIII era, he and Alfred Morris ran over hte Cowboys and took the NFC East with their 7th straight win. The good times wouldn't last too long, with RGIII tearing his knee the next week and things going to hell thereafter. It was Alfred Morris who really shone here with 200 yards. Tony Romo had three interceptions, and the Cowboys lost their second straight win and your in game. 

The Memory: The 2012 season was for me the opposite of 2011 - I was uber-invested with the return of Peyton. It ended on a high as well, me foolishly thinking the Broncos were a lock for at least the AFC Title Game, blindly sitting down and watching this one. My neighbor at the time was a really good friend of mine, and his brother was a die-hard Washington fan. He kept reminding me to no end that I had basically picked against them each week in their six game win streak leading into the Week 17 game. To make his heart full, I picked against them again (granted, up to that point, Dallas was probably the "better" team) and it worked as expected. 

2013 - Dec 29th: Philadelphia Eagles - 24  @  Dallas Cowboys - 22

Significance: Same stakes at 2011 and 2012

Where was I: In a Hyatt resort in Maryland with my family

The Game: For the third straight year, the Cowboys lost a win-and-your-in game. They completed the trifecta, losing to Philly after losing to both New York and Washington in the two years prior. This time the game was even at home, but it didn't matter. It wasn't Romo's fault this time, as Kyle Orton had to start for Romo who had a back injury. Orton threw for 350 yards, but two interceptions and the Cowboys missed a 2-pt conversion with 3:50 to go that would've tied the game. Nick Foles in the midst of what we all assumed would be a career highlight-type heater, was 17-26 with 2 TDs and the Eagles under Chip Kelly earned the NFC East.

The Memory: We as a family rarely take "just relax" vacations, but there's a Hyatt Resort somewhere near Annapolis, that we went to a couple of times - normally for the period between Christmas and New Year's. This was one of those times. It was a calm period - with us usually lazing around the resort, making a trip to a nearby town for dinner, and some nice craft beers and the like. It was during this few days of bliss that we were playing rummy as a family with a TV nearby in the hotel common area showing the game. I was half watching the game, half playing my game, but it was a success on both counts. The game itself was really close, had some nice drama, and was a great cap to the regular season (another fun regular season for me what with Peyton setting all kinds of offense records), and for once in our family games of rummy, I dominated.

The Year of Returning to Normal

A year ago, we were a out to enter into the Omicron wave, the wave to end all waves, where we hit a ridiculous million people a day case rate. A few people in the biology and epidimiology communities dared to mention at the time that maybe this, a super spreadable but almost assuredly weaker, version of the coronavirus, would be a blessing in disguise. I hate even typing that, because hundreds of thousands, if not millions, did still die, but from where we sat a year ago, despite vaccines (and boosters by then), staring down another winter of virus, to where we are today, as shocking. But more than that, it is warming, that 2022 despite starting a bit darkly, ending up being hte year that we all were able to return back to normal.

I'm writing this in Bar Hop Brewco, a place I went to last on March 11th, 2020, two days before I would take my final flight for 13 months, going there already knowing that this was the last moment before the Titanic would sink. The world was about to be radically changed in a generational-defining event.

32 months later, I'm only in Toronto because it was the right amount of cost to get here and back to get me just across the line for United 1K status for 2023, something that I earned in 2019 and was more than on my way to earning in 2020 when the pandemic struck. United rolled over everyone's status for 2021 but declined to do so for 2022 - a signal that things were "approaching" normal. For 2023, they decided to go back to pre-pandemic spending and flight requirements, giving the biggest sign yet that things are back to normal in that world. I probably won't make it back during 2023 for 2024, which is the primary driver for this trip.

Sitting here in Bar Hop Brewco, there's a weird sense of normalcy. I did this every couple weeks back in 2019 and early 2020. Same with flying into Pearson airport and making that walk to the rental counter. In a beautifully circular nature, it's fun that the place I'm going to where I've come to this realization a bit, is the same place I went to in my last pre-pandemic trip.

When I say normal, I mean that over the course of 2022 all the remaining holdouts from opening back up did so one by one. From Asia, which ironically opened up because of how bad things got locally - reaching the point that they realized you may as well let people in since we're more likely to give the virus to visitors than vice versa. As we saw in the past week, even China finally opened up and dropped entry quarantine requirements. We all have a vaccine card, but are slowly reaching the point where it is a meaningless bit of paper.

I did trips in 2021 - many of them (enough to get to United Platinum, at least). But all were in one way or the other impacted by Covid. From Barcelona of all places having a super hard 12:30am curfew, to India having an even harder 11:30pm one. To having to wear masks on a lot of the flights. From Rocky Mountain National Park instituting a reservation system. But that all changed in 2022. 

In 2022 I returned to the office, and to office events, getting to reconnect in a more frequent and meaningful way with a larger cohort of our ever expanding office for my company (which grew from probably 50 to 90 over the course of hte pandemic). In 2022 I returned to work trips and client site visits which were really fun until the first time I had to deal with a Newark Airport operational meltdown and a flight that landed local time in San Francisco at 1am. But in the end, 2022 was the year where we stopped caring about Covid.

Granted, many will say that is both foolish and a bit overstated. Covid is still a real fear. The potential of new bad variants is always around. I finally got the disease this February, and I've been convinced at various points that I've had it again. But the number of cases / hospitalizations / deaths is not a ticker on CNN. It is still being shown on nytimes.com, but you have to scroll down a decent amount. Part of this is us becoming desensitized, but more of it is that for the people that have taken their vaccinations, the disease just isn't all that dangerous anymore.

There is some beauty in the world kind of going through a bit of a reset from March'20 - Jan'22. But we've come out of it for the better. We've (and when I say "we", I largely mean "I") become a bit more caring, a bit more "in the moment" and little bit calmer. All the various "first" things that we did for the first time post pandemic working as little recurring gifts for an otherwise jaded world. Say the first full office party I went to in London, or our local Holiday party in New York. From that first client site visit, to the first time at our local Princeton bar when it went back to normal hours. Even the frist time that I had to wait in a bus in bumper to bumper traffic to get into NYC, it was a relief of "normalcy" striking again. 

This really was the year that everything came back, everything opened up. Unlike the 1920s after the end of the Spanish Flu pandemic, we didn't devolve into a bacchanalia. Also there was a lot of sadness in this year, from the Ukraine situation to rising tensions between China and Taiwan, to much else. Things aren't perfect, but things weren't really all that perfect before 2020 either. Things were just as they are - normal, and I'm so glad to be back there.

NFL 2022: Week 16 Power Rankings & The Rest

Ranking the AFC

Tier A-I - The "Just Three More Weeks" Uno

16.) Houston Texans  =  1-12-1  (235-344)

The Texans are really perfecting the "play close so our fans have at least something to watch, but still lose". They aren't guaranteed the #1 pick, but are pretty close to it at this point. Also I have no idea what they were trying to do with the whole two quarterbacks thing. It's all cute anyway since this will be Bryce Young's team come next September.

Tier A-II - The "Maybe try a young QB for once" Duo

15.) Indianapolis Colts  =  4-9-1  (245-337)

14.) Denver Broncos  =  4-10  (218-253)

The Colts are finding new ways to be embarrassing but you can still say that they've been much better with Saturday, beating the Raiders (who aside from the Colts gave have played fairly well recently), nearly beating the Eagles, playing the Cowboys close for three quarters, and then taking a 33-0 lead on the Vikings. Yes, that is an extremely rose-colored-glasses way of looking at things. For the Broncos, they just aren't good, though and with Wilson now out a bit it truly is one of the msot barren, lost seasons we've ever seen. The Broncos over/under before the season was 10.5, and they'll be lucky to get to half of that.

Tier A-III - The "Setting up for 2023" Trio

13.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  6-8  (251-309)
12.) Cleveland Browns  =  6-8  (313-326)

11.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  6-8  (338-337)

It's almost impossible for any of these teams to jump all four of the ones above to get a playoff spot, so we can talk about them a bit more nakedly. The Steelers approaching .500 again is just a true testament to how good Tomlin is, but I just wonder how much more Tomlin would want to do this with a team with a protracted rebuild. He would be a hot candidate anywhere. The Browns got their first win with Deshaun, but have yet to put up 20 points of offense with him. It's probably anyway about seeing where he could be come 2023. Finally with the Raiders, that bizarre, hilarious win was fun (and great karmic retribution for The Tuck Rule, in some ways). The only real intrigue for me is that if McDaniels wants to sign up for another year with Carr. It's clear at this point McDaniels has done enough to warrant a second season, but his relationship and opinion of Carr is a lot less clear.

Tier A-IV - The "Four Teams Enter, One Team Wins (Probably)" Quadro

10.) Tennessee Titans  =  7-7  (255-293)
9.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  8-6  (312-340)
8.) New England Patriots  =  7-7  (300-269)

7.) New York Jets  =  7-7  (281-263)

It seems pretty inevitable that the Titans and Jags will play in Week 18 for the division title. Their season was built on too much smoke and mirrors and it all broke down at the same time. I guess they could still sneak through, much like the potential winner of the NFC South as well, but what's really hurt them is the pass rush falling off in recent weeks. The Chargers got the win over the Titans, but their inability to put that game out of reach said more about their coaching issues on offense more than anything else. For the Pats, that loss coupled with a tough schedule really hurts. BB has to questioned about his choices on the offensive coaching staff. Mac Jones going 13-31 against arguably the worst pass defense in the league is a harrowing sign. For the Jets, tough, close loss, a game that they arguably would've won had Mike White been starting. The defense is clearly good enough even without Quinnen Williams playing. What Saleh has done in two years is magic.

Tier A-V - The "My 2016 Eagles Thing is really coming true" Uno

6.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  6-8  (334-328)

This whole year I've talked about comparisons to the 2016 Eagles (Pederson's first year), but in reality this could end up better. The Jags have a clear path at the division. Trevor Lawrence is playing like a future star, even with middling talent at the skill positions. The defense is starting to play more high risk which has gotten some turnvoers. They aren't a good team, but by word they are the best team in the AFC South. With Lawrence playing like this, that might be true for a while.

Tier A-VI - The "Holding On for Dear Life" Duo

5.) Baltimore Ravens  =  9-5  (304-263)
4.) Miami Dolphins  =  8-6  (345-344)

The Ravens truly need Lamar back. It is clear how dependent they are on his brilliance with the lack of receiving talent. Their defensive improvement has definitely sustained though, adn they are effectively one win away from the playoffs with Lamar probably coming back by at minimum Week 17. For the Dolphins, three straight losses have definitely soured things. They don't have the toughest schedule left needing probably two wins to be safe. The offense showed a lot against Buffalo, dominating parts of that game and if they can improve protection at all for Tua they should be fine.

Tier A-VII - The "If One of us 3 aren't in the Super Bowl, it's March Madness" Trio

3.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  11-3  (414-322)
2.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  10-4  (369-288)
1.) Buffalo Bills  =  11-3  (385-250)

These three have really separated themselves. The only questions are the Chiefs tendency to play down to competition, and the Bills injuries like Von Miller maybe making their defense a little worse than it needs to be. If anything, the Bengals might be the most "complete" team of the lot right now. The Chiefs offense is still excellent, but points have trailed their performance for a bit now which is a problem that can rear itself. For the Bengals, there's a lot to like right now, but I do worry if they're over-leaning on Joe Mixon as they had a good routine with Perrine. For the Bills, the offense is locked in but I do worry about their defense a bit. The pass rush has generally still stayed really good, but against better teams you do worry. McDermott is a creative blitzer when needed but it does expose them a bit, as the Dolphins were able to take advantage of a few times.

Ranking the NFC

Tier N-I - The "Thinking about 2023" Trio

16.) Chicago Bears  =  3-11  (290-358)

15.) Los Angeles Rams  =  4-10  (230-320)

14.) Arizona Cardinals  =  4-10  (292-372)

The Bears are doing a good Texans impression in losing close to good teams to maintain interest. For Fields's sake I hope he can leave this season unscathed in terms of injuries adn the Bears can invest in better weapons for him. What more to say about the Rams. They are just awful, but injuries have ravaged them, to the point that when pointing to the "stars & scrubs" almost misses the point. You can't predict for all of your good players bar Ramsey to get hurt for long stretches. Even if you have great depth you can't overcome that. The Cardinals are a mess, though at least they're ripping the band-aid. Their fall from a fairly "even good by the numbers" 9-2 team last year to this, with a QB with an ACL tear, a roster devoid of young talent, a GM basically on the outs and a coach who will likely join the GM soon, is stark to say the least. It could be an attractive job to play with Kyler, but there are rough times ahead for the Cardinals.

Tier N-II - The "You Guys really are gonna let Tom get away with this?" Trio

13.) Atlanta Falcons  =  5-9  (306-333)

12.) New Orleans Saints  =  5-9  (286-315)
11.) Carolina Panthers  =  5-9  (276-314)

Man the NFC South is truly just gifting a bad Bucs team a division title. Ironically, these three all have better point differentials than the Bucs but you can't see any of them pulling it off (it would take the Cardinals shocking Tampa on Sunday). The Falcons are basically waving the white flag putting in what seems like a way too green Desmond Ridder in there. In the Falcons defense, at 5-8 you shouldn't be "in the mix." For teh Saints, they're still the best of these three on paper and if they just didn't make any one of like ten mistakes two weeks back in New Orleans, they would have the division lead right now. For the Panthers, this is all nice and touching, but games like losing at home to Pittsburgh will utltimately do them in, though technically they do have the division in their control given they can sweep the Bucs and make up the game difference.

Tier N-IV - The "Kind of in it?" Uno

10.) Green Bay Packers  =  6-8  (287-314)

They're in it, and it isn't inconceivable for make the playoffs. It all really comes down to next Sunday's game against Miami. If they can beat them, they have two winnable games at home, first up against a Vikings team that would be playing for really just the difference between #2 and #3 seeds, and the Lions at home. That may be a win and your in game. The offense is more or less fine now with Watson healthy and performing well. Rodgers is settled down nicely. The defense is surprisingly a mess, but it kind of is in sight.

Tier N-IV - The "Depressing potential playoff teams" Duo

9.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  6-8  (247-288)

8.) Seattle Seahawks  =  7-7  (355-355)

The Bucs are just bad. It was hilarious that a lot of people (most notably, Tony Romo) were saying "You can't forget about the Bucs going up 17-0". You know what? You can. Good for the Bucs, they scored nearly a season high with their 23 points, but needed garbage time TD to get there. Anyway, the Seahawks seem to have hit the end of their road. Their rush defense is just too porous adn teams have learned to just commit to the run. The offense is still good - one bad performance against the league's best defense doesn't change that, but this loss puts them in precarious position in terms of the wild card, but a potential 8-9 type season is still a massive success.

Tier N-V - The "Probably safe, and one Hopeful" Trio

7.) Washington Commanders  =  7-6-1  (265-276)

6.) New York Giants  =  8-5-1  (287-312)
5.) Detroit Lions  =  7-7  (369-364)

The Commanders are in a tough spot with that loss, which absolutely was aided by some brutal refereeing. I think what these last few games have shown is that they need something different at QB. Heinecke is better than Wentz, but he's far from good in an offense that is still fairly good aside from that position. For teh Giants, big win and what was really promising was their offensive fluidity for much of it. Saquon was graet, but Jones looked confident and finally a bit at peace with his random set of receivers. For the Lions, it is amazing what they have become in recent weeks. Goff is playing every bit as good as he did in 2018 with the Rams. The defense has reached a level of competence too that gives them a chance in basically every game.

Tier N-VI - The "Just Who Effing Knows" Uno

4.) Minnesota Vikings  =  11-3  (351-349)

I have no idea at this point what to say about this team. Obviously, it's never a good thing to be down 0-33 in the first place, but so much of that was driven by special taems and fumble luck and non-repeatable stuff. If anything, this was the best performance by the Vikings defense in a long, long time. The offense played well once it settled. This is a good team, but that record is so flattering.

Tier N-VII - The "Lesser NFC Prime Contenders" Duo

3.) Dallas Cowboys  =  10-4  (394-269)

2.) San Francisco 49ers  =  10-4  (338-210)

The Cowboys have now won a game they almost lost, and lost a game they should've won, so they're basically back where they should be. They're getting probably an out with Hurts likely missing the Eagles game but are more or less locked into the 5 seed. If I were them, I would start scouting for the Buccaneers now. The biggest risk I see is Prescott turning it over - down to down they're way better than the Bucs. So re the 49ers, who continue to prove that the offense is no worse, if not just outright better, with Purdy at the helm. It may not matter with the level the defense is playing and for now a healthy McCaffrey and Kittle. If Deebo comes back, they really do have a shot here.

Tier N-VIII - The "Maybe quietest potential 1/2-loss team ever" Uno

1.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  13-1  (411-268)

They're the best team in the league, and have the great credit of winning all the close games (their one loss ironically wasn't all that close). Now they have to survive without Hurts but unlike 2017 (granted, it ended in a Super Bowl win) he should be back. Everything is set up for them. They've done well to capitalize on an easy schedule, and set themselves up with needing one win over three games to lock in the top seed. It all should work. Rust, and the coin flip that has come up their way four or so times this year not working for them, is the only real risk they have until an NFC Title Game.

Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

1.) Buffalo Bills  =  14-3
2.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  14-3
3.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  12-5

4.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  8-9

5.) Baltimore Ravens  =  11-6

6.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  10-7
7.) Miami Dolphins  =  10-7

NFC

1.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  15-2
2.) San Francisco 49ers  =  13-4

3.) Minnesota Vikings  =  13-4

4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  8-9
5.) Dallas Cowboys  =  12-5

6.) New York Giants  =  10-6-1
7.) Detroit Lions  =  10-7

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Denver Broncos (4-10)  @  Los Angeles Rams (4-10)  (Christmas - CBS)

15.) New Orleans Saints (5-9)  @  Cleveland Brown (6-8)  (1:00 - CBS)

14.) Las Vegas Raiders (6-8)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (6-8)  (8:15 - NFLN)

I call it "Bad Team vs. Bad Team" Saturday and Sunday, as we get three games between non-playoff teams (technically the Raiders, Steelers and Browns are alive, but not really - same with teh Siants I guess, but I'm boycotting the NFC South). None of these games have much interest other than just to point and laugh that on Christmas we'll get a 4-10 Broncos team without Russell Wilson playing a 4-10 Rams team without Matthew Stafford and there's a good chance it will outdraw the NBA game(s) at the time.

13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8)  @  Arizona Cardinals (4-10)  (Christmas - NBC)

I call it "I told you I'm boycotting the NFC South" as yeah, I'm boycotting it. Other than I'll say given Tom Brady is involved this crap game will absolutely get better ratings than the NBA at the time.

12.) Buffalo Bills (11-3)  @  Chicago Bears (3-11)  (1:00 - CBS)

11.) Los Angeles Charges (8-6)  @  Indianapolis Colts (4-9-1)  (MNF - ESPN)

10.) Atlanta Falcons (5-9)  @  Baltimore Ravens (9-5)  (1:00 - FOX) 

9.) Houston Texans (1-12-1)  @  Tennessee Titans (7-7)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Bad Team vs. Good Team" Saturday and Monday, as we get four games where playoff bound (or hopeful, in Tenessee's and LAs case) teams try to avoid getting spoiled. Ranked in no particular order really. I do fund it funny we get one last Colts primetime game. Man Matt Ryan on the Colts had a lot of us fooled - me included.

8.) Washington Commanders (7-6-1)  @  San Francisco 49ers (10-4)  (4:05 - CBS)
7.) Detroit Lions (7-7)  @  Carolina Panthers (5-9)  (1:00 - FOX)

6.) Green Bay Packers (6-8)  @  Miami Dolphins (8-6)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Make or Break Saturday" as we get three games with road teams that need wins to keep their playoff hopes survive. Technically the Coimmanders, and to some degree the Lions, are OK with losses - mostly given the other may lose also. For the Lions and Panthers, it really kind of is an elimination game. For the Packers, this is really their playoff eliminator, with two winnable home games following.

5.) Cincinnati Bengals (10-4)  @  New England Patriots (7-7)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "We're on to Cincinnati" Sunday, as the Bengals can get their long wanted revenge on teh Patriots for the On to Cincinnati business from eight years back. That was followed by two other blowouts in the series. For the Bengals, basically the entire roster has turned over since 2019, but they can still make a statement for the franchise - basically knock New England out of the playoffs and set their longest win streak in modern times.

4.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (6-8)  @  New York Jets (7-7)  (TNF - Prime)

I call it "Oddly, Al gets a free win" Thursday, as we get a strangely good Thursday Night matchup, one that I'm sure Al Michaels hated from the start of season. The Jags don't technically need this game, so if anything this migth be bigger for the Jets. Of course, the reason the Jags don't is they probbaly can count on the Titans dropping a game. 

3.) Seattle Seahawks (7-7)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (11-3)  (1:00 - FOX)

2.) New York Giants (8-5-1)  @  Minnesota Vikings (11-3)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Spoiler Alert" Saturday, as we get two games where playoff wild card hopefuls need wins and their superior opponents truly don't. I ranked them in order of likelihood of upset, but the Seahawks are basically out with a loss. If anything, the Bengals might be the big winner if the Seahawks can pull the upset - putting their #1 seed in their control (spoiler alert - the #1 game next week is definitely Bengals @ Bills). 

1.) Philadelphia Eagles (13-1)  @  Dallas Cowboys (10-4)  (4:25 - FOX)

I call it "Man, this game is good but looked better before" Saturday, as the Cowboys and Eagles don't really have all that much to play for, especially in light of the Eagles losing Hurts. Assuming the Eagles win one of their last three games, this game is almost meaningless - the Eagles will get the #1 seed and the Cowboys the #5. I just feel bad dropping it when a couple weeks back we were salivating over this.

16 Memories from the 2022 World Cup

16.) Those 3 Minutes when Spain & Germany were Out

This will stand in proxy for the entire group stages which were insane. Not as goal heavy as either 2014 or 2018 (the KO rounds more than made up for it), but had some amazing facts. No team won all three of their group games (first time ever). Only two teams didn't get a point in Canada and Qatar (lowest ever). And for three minutes, Spain and Germany were going to be exiting the tournament, with Costa Rica and Japan going through. It didn't last of course, though that same group did still give us Germany exiting and Japan winning the group having beat both Japan and Germany. This was a wild group stage, and set up things beautifully for the knockouts to come.

15.) The US has Hope

The result was akin to 2010 and 2014, a loss in the Round of 16. If anything, this wasn't even as close as those two, going out in extra time in those two losses. But if anything, this was more promising. The US needs a different coach, and an out-and-out striker, but their midfield, their top players, are getting better. The system is getting better. A lot can happen in four years (will be a recurring theme in this piece) but right now the US shapes up to be quite decent in 2026. These are small victories, but given how much a disaster 2018 was for the US, getting out of the group without too much fuss, being the only team to hold England without a goal, and generally getting the better of play for long stretches against the Netherlands. It was nice watching them again, and even nicer knowing the future is fairly bright.

14.) Qatar & FIFA

Look, this tournament was always going to have a black cloud over it due to the shadiness on how it came about, from the clear bribery involved in Qatar getting the tournament, to the treatment of migrants, the series of bone-headed decisions (like the "one-love" armband thing, and the 180 on alcohol sales in stadiums I do think that there was a definite soft racism/islamophobia in some of the criticisms, and others about valid criticisms being overextended (such as the treatment of migrants, who by and large weren't in great positions back home in India). But in the end, as predicted the dust settled and Qatar seemed to host a decent tournament. Yes it wasn't the same as in a football tradition rich country like Brazil or Germany, but there was something cool about that part of the world hosting hte tournament. Just don't go giving 2030 to Saudi, FIFA!

13.) Liking the Time of Year

I honestly think the original sin of this World Cup in many people's eyes started when Qatar gave up on their effort to temperature control in teh summer and forced the domestic European league's to take a pause. But to be honest, me personally I liked it. It created some epics sports days, where World Cup and NFL Football was taking place side by side, or USA v England on Black Friday. It was novel. I doubt it ever happens again, as there's no Southern Hemisphere place so cold it would require it, but given the World Cup is the biggest prize in that sport, it should take precedence over the European Leagues. I remember when it was first announced there was a lot of questions around would this make for a better tournament, with players in mid-season form, and I think that largely held true as well.

12.) CR7 and Portugal's Paradox

It is so funny leaving 2018, when Ronaldo and Messi saw their countries knocked out on the same day in the Round of 16, that we would find ourselves here four years later. While this probably puts any debate that was left to rest, it should be noted Ronaldo is 2.5 years older and the cliff has come really suddenly. The irony of it all, of course, was benching Ronaldo seemed to allow Santos to let his ultra-creative team play more open, but then gets you things like when that same team can't play through Morocco, you realize the value of a Cristiano who can just get crossed lobbed at him with a decent chance of getting to at least one of those. This is undoubtedly the last time we see Cristiano at a World Cup, and much like Messi he went out in tears. He'll retire maybe the best player ever to never win a World Cup (Cruyff is really the only competition that comes to mind), but at least he has that Euros title.

11.) The Tightening of the World

2018 already showed that the gap between the best team and worst team was closing (everyone scored at least two goals), and 2022 showcased that even further. We had Morocco and Japan win groups. We had Saudi Arabia beat the eventual winner in their opener, and in a game that wasn't a fluke but rather a tactics masterpiece. We had at least one country from every federation make the Last 16. We had Australia win two games, and Senegal and South Korea make it out of their groups. It's for this reason that I'm not opposed to the 48 team tournament - the world is bigger, the world is more capable of offering more than 32 quality teams. They just have to get the 48-team format right. 

10.) Croatia Extending the Run

Croatia ending 3rd to me was more stunning and more commendable than them coming in 2nd in 2018. That 2018 team had most of the best players of this team, plus Mario Mandzukic and Ivan Rakitic. They were a great, stacked team that rode that ability to a final playing great football. This was a smash and grab team on heart that someone nearly did the same thing. Luka Modric was probably getting a bit more plaudits than he deserved but he showed again his ageless brilliance. Their goalie was in my estimation the best one in the tournament (though not as clutch as Emi - we're coming to him). You have to think this is it for Modric, but if so, he along with Perisic, Brozovic, Kovacic, Lovren and so many others that played either in 2018 or 2022 made a lasting impression.

9.) FOX needs a remake

I actually gave FOX some positive feedback in 2018, and I don't regret it. But man did they somehow make things a lot worse. First off, Alexi Lalas got way too much screentime. Second, they neutured World Cup Tonight, which was a fairly reliably good daily recap show in 2018, with Kate Abdo and Guus Hiddink and Michael Ballack and other good guests. This time it was having Ochocinco and leaning into the worst aspects of American sports coverage. The broadcast teams weren't really any different (I still like the main John Strong and Stu Holden team), but overall it just felt way too "FOX". They will get the 2026 World Cup and I do hope they improve some aspects of the coverage. Many aspects, to be honest.

8.) Brazil, for Good or Bad

That Brazil R16 win over South Korea was one of the more beautiful halves of football I've ever seen played. Brazil were something else, with swagger, technical brilliance, incredible precision, and a truly Brazilian flare that seemed to be straight out of 2002 or 1998. But then that same go-for-it mentality is what did them in, pushing for a 2nd goal in extra trime against Croatia, leaving too few in defense for Croatia's counter. It was painful, as was the penalty shootout loss. It was another loss in the QF, and another early exit for what had looked like the favorite, but at least Brazil gave us the fun. It gave us the clip of Tite doing the pigeon celebration with Richarlison. It gave us Vini Jr's smile. It gave us so much more. 

7.) France's Heart

France to me coming into the tournament were something of an afterthought. Pogba and Kante, two midfield pillars in 2018, were out with their replacements being young or untested. Benzema was injured/re-blackballed. There was the winner's curse. All of it then followed by Australia scoring first against them in the opening game. But here we are with all that "Never underestimate the Heart of a Champion" stuff with them coming back again and again and again. The future is of course still bright with MBappe, and players like Tchoumeni and Cammavinga primed for 2026 dominance, but this was a special group for France. As was true in 2018, France had a really understated ability to fight and claw their way to results. For nearly two straight tournaments, they were fearless, clinical and commanding. It just ran out a little too soon.

6.) Morocco's Defense

After their win over Spain there was a great 45-second clip of Morocco's perfect low block with two defensive lines moving and switchign with perfect precision. Yes, the clip also showed equally how risk-free Spain goes to its own detriment, but it was cool to watch a team pull off defense with such mentronomic precision. Ultimately, Morocco's talent deficit couldn't take it past France, but their performance, their very much deserved wins over Spain (where they had more shots on target) and Portugal, were one of the lasting memories of the tournament for me. Playesr like Amrabat and Bafoul, everything their coach did. It was cool that in the first World Cup in the Arab world, a team from a mulsim country made it. And they did 100% deserving their results and their plaudits. 

5.) MBappe's Effectiveness

It's scary that MBappe had 8 goals in this tournament, and already has 12 in his two World Cups, with you would think at least two more. Yes, some were penalties, and yes he was a bit quiet in the Semifinal (or even to some degree the Quarterfinal) but his ability to just show up at huge moments with amazing calmness and brilliance is something else. There was never a doubt that he was going to miss any of the penalties in the final. There was such a smooth inevitability in his goal that tied the game at 2. There was something so powerful of his two goals against Poland. MBappe is easy to hate, but that's almost all due to his issues at PSG. MBappe in the shirt of Les Blues is magical.

4.) Goals in KO Games

I was surprised to learn after the tournament ended that 2022 was the higest scoring world cup. Mainly because I remember it initially setting records early on for the most say 0-0 1st halfs (there were a LOT of them). But a key reason why it was, beating 2018 by three goals and 2014 by one goal, was a record of goals in knockout games. In the 16 knockout games, there were 52 goals. This was five more than 2018 and a whopping 17 more than 2014. In retrospect, 2014 had a panoply of goals in teh group stage but way fewer in the knockouts. Here the knockouts were incredible, and offensive, and full of goals. There were a record five penalty shootouts, but only one was after a 0-0 draw (Morocco over Spain). We had a 3-3 final. We had 6-1 and 4-1 beatdowns. Wé had twice a team force extra time after being down 2-0. It was just an incredible series of games.

3.) Emi Martinez's Balls

By all statistical accounts, Lukasovic had a better tournament in net, including also being the winning goalie for two penalty shootouts. But Emiliano Martinez was a revelation in big moments. He was so good in those shootouts, generally guessing right even when he allowed goals. And of course there was all the shenanigans that he so well toed the line of arrogance and confidence. Finally there was that save, 123rd minute, a looped ball gives France a clear shot at the win at the death, and instead Martinez came out sprawling and made a brilliant save. Immediately up there with the Casillas save in 2010 as the best ever in a World Cup Final (this had less time on it, but the Casillas was truly a 1v1 with more space). While we're on it, I'll throw another one out there, which was Buffon's save on a Zidane header deep into extra time (before teh headbutt, of course) but this one was something else. In a match where the two headliners scored 5 goals, Emi Martinez may have been its best player.

2.) The end of an Era

There's the natural "this is it" aspect to a bunch of players that we expect won't be back. I don't want to dwell on that because (a) that's normal for every World Cup and (b) it's hard to predict four years. Case in point is in 2018, one of my notes was how we can slam the door on Messi or Ronaldo winning a world cup... No, I'm talking about this being the end of an era of world cups. The first one I watched intimately was 2006, when Messi and Ronaldo were the youngsters breaking out on the scene. This caps that era, but also the last one with 32 teams, 8 groups, 16-team knockout round. There has been some cool stability to that format. No more. We're entering a brave new world come 2026 in a still-to-be-announced format with 48 teams involved. I spoke earlier how I'm not categorically against 48 teams (maybe a bit more against a 32-team knockout instead of 24, with 8 getting byes...). Things will be different come US/CAN/MEX 2026. But for a last show for the 32-team era, this was quite a fun ride with an amazing final.

1.) Messi's Moment

What more is there to say. I was never the biggest Messi fan, but especially as he got older and the core around him in Barcelona got weaker, I realized a lot of my issue with an anti-Barcelona feeling, less an anti-Messi one (the exact opposite of how with Brady/Patriots, my animus is far more towards Brady). In the end, Messi is the best player I've ever seen, and as is my longstanding position, I am ecstatic that he as an all-time great was able to win a World Cup. Nothing pains me more than the whole "he didn't win a ring" discourse that has reached a point of no return in US sports, but for Messi it existed in the global stage as well. And the best part for him is that he did it delivering an incredible tournament, a spiritual successor to Zidane's 2006 swan-song (headbutt excluded...). This was no passenger, he led that team. He is that team. He deserves this so much, having to deal with a ton of heartbreak with Argentina that was either too poorly coached (say 2010), or too limited in talent (2014-2018). For once, it all came together, and there was much suffering along the way, but I'll be grateful that I got to see Messi win his World Cup, as much that I, after years of denying it when that Barcelona shirt just warped everything in my mind, am forever grateful I got to watch Messi.

Ovie chasing Gretzky

It's becoming more and more of a certainty that Alex Ovechkin will catch and break Wayne Gretzky's goal record of 894. This has been probably in teh cards for a while, ceratinly when Ovechkin became a goal scoring machine in 2013 or so after a couple year lull (where he still scored 70 goals over two seasonsw). But with him hitting 800 yesterday, with a hat trick no less, it is time to take stock on what this means.

Why? Because we're living in a world where one of the main Wayne Gretzky records is going to be broken. Let's not lose sleep for Wayne, who will still hold basically all other records, and in a weird way, the goals record was the most "breakable". Connor McDavid can continue being as good as he is right now for another 15 yaers, and he isn't sniffing Gretzky's overall points record. He has to improve massively to touch Gretzky's season scoring record. The 894 was the record, but it was attainable. All you needed is a guy who could average 45 goals for 20 seasons (900 goals) - and somehow, we saw one.

Yes, Ovechkin had help for a NHL that while nowhere near the 80s level of offense, left the true dead puck era in Ovechkin's rookie year - granted Ovechkin's arrival itself was part of leaving that era behind. He also played his career in a world where players can age better due to advanced training, medicine and less head-hunting. I don't think those things outweigh Gretzky's edge of, you know, playing in the 80s, but still.

Case in point, when Gretzky finished his age 33 season, he had 803 goals. He played five more seasons and put up just 91 more gioals. Gretzky, as crazy as it sounds, "slowed down" (mostly in the goals department, he was still a point a game player those five seasons) and that opened the door for that 45x20 math to work.

But even all of that, it is still inconceivable that soimeone is about to just do this. We're about to see another huge career record go down, with LeBron set to pass Kareen;'s career scoring record fairly soon. But no one really cares about career records in the NBA. Similarly in the NFL, we've seen many players break what were career passing records, but the game fundamentally changed (more passing, more efficient passing, rules to inhibit defense) that it became inevitable. This was not inevitable. This took a unique talent. One talented enough that he;'s already pretty clearly the best goal scorer of all time, but good enoguh even so to get to 894.

Ovechkin's insane consistency was taken for granted, but also in a very Hank Aaron type way, it just adds up. When I say Hank Aaron, it's because Aaron notably never had 50 home runs in a season. He just had like 40 every year for nearly 20 years. Ovechkin did lead the league in goals nine times, but Gretzky had four seasons with more goals than Ovechkin's career high 65. Ovehckin just put up 50 like every year.

Yes, we can quibble with Ovechkin's defensive (in)ability - though at his best he was better on that side of the ice due to his speed and physicality. We can harangue him for just having a bunch of goals setting up in the same spot on the powerplay for a decade in a half - but if it's easy to do that, someone should have, you know, stopped him. We can do all those things, but at the end of the day, scoring a goal is by far the most consequential event in a hockey game, and he did it better, for longer, than anyone.

Ovechkin's goal scoring prowess shone from basically his first game and first season where he pumped in 50 goals and scored what is still maybe the most audacious goal I've ever seen, with his behind the back while falling down goal against Phoenix. But what's truly amazing is that is just has never stopped. It took a while for the hockey world to come around to him as a winner, a complete player, and all that stuff, but he got his Cup, so because of that we can luckily cut out the noise and just focus on hsi bonkers stats.

It took this 800 chase to both conceptualize how you get to 894, and you do it by just doing what he did. His goal totals read as close to say Aaron's home runs, or the Spurs season win totals. 50-46-65-56-50 in his first five season. Then came that weird "down" shift, where he still had 32-38 goals. He then had 32 in 48 games in the lockiut shortened 2012-13 season. When they came back the next year, the next period of absolute bananes begun: 51-53-50-33-49-51-48. Hard to understand the random 33, but the others were all stupid good.

Ovechkin is going to break Gretzky's record. He's going to pass Gordie Howe pretty soon. Again it is so good that he;'s already won that Cup so no one can throw that at him. It took a while to get here but I am relieved it seems the hockey record is ready for this, mainly because Wayne is. I expect no one to be more happy, more astonished and more gracious than Wayne himself that someone finally broke this record. It was the one that could be had, and we finally found the guy to average 45 goals over 20 seasons to do it.

NFL 2022: Week 15 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "That's the Best Type of Loss" Uno

32.) Houston Texans  =  1-11-1  (211-314)

The Texans are in no real jeopardy of losing the #1 pick at this point. They've got it fully locked down. But even then, why take a chance. The Texans though for once gave their fans a nice little game, came remarkably close to beating a far better team. I don't know if this solves anything other than just proves that benching Davis Mills was one of the most meaningless QB decisions ever. Anyway, the real fun begins with if they'll fire a coach again, and if they pick Bryce Young and who gets to coach him up/

Tier II - The "Just Playing out the String" Quadro

31.) Chicago Bears  =  3-10  (270-333)

30.) Los Angeles Rams  =  4-9  (218-296)

29.) Denver Broncos  =  3-10  (194-238)

28.) Indianapolis Colts  =  4-8-1  (209-298)

There's little pockets of interest for all of these teams, from the Bears with Fields to see if they can continue to grow on some of the momentum they were having before his injury hit, to the Rams to seeing if the Mayfield experience can subsist even longer. The Broncos finally got some sign of life from Russell Wilson, so even though this is a completely lost season, it will be worth watching if it can continue past the one week and maybe give the Broncos something to build on for into next season. For the Colts, I guess it is just seeing if Saturday can have any staying power as head coach (let's all hope the answer is no to that one)

Tier III - The "Sad, Miserable" Quadro

27.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  5-8  (227-293)

26.) XXXXXXXXXX

25.) Cleveland Browns  =  5-8  (300-323)

24.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  5-8  (308-313)

I'll give the Steelers this, they are good enough to play bad teams (or good teams down to a backup, if not 3rd string QB) close. Pickett to Pickens shows some signs of life every week. XXXXXXXXXX. The Browns already are looking ahead to next year when they get Watson for the entire season. They have to hope that Watson with a little playing time and a full offseason looks better than he does so far, with a total of 1 offensive TD over two games. Of course, outside of Browns fans, no one in the world wants to see that improvement. The Raiders ridiculous loss to the Rams starting a QB who just got there, probably slams the door shut on any potential wild card chance they may have thought they had. 

Tier IV - The "NFC South" Quadro (yes, this is slightly gimmicky)

23.) New Orleans Saints  =  4-9  (265-297)

22.) Atlanta Falcons  =  5-8  (288-312)

21.) Carolina Panthers  =  5-8  (260-290)

20.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  6-7  (224-254)

Yes, this is a bit gimmicky. The worst of these four probably belongs in the group above, and hte best in the group below, but to be real, I think its deserved to clump these teams, and if not for say Mark Ingram stupidly going out of bounds a yard short of the sticks, all four teams would be 5-8. The Saints are just a coaching mess - interesting to hear some reports that it might be a Payton reunion? The Falcons may live to regret the haste move to change to Desmond Ritter, as they have some semblance of a chance still. Both they and the Panthers get the Bucs one more time. For the Panthers, every week it becomes a bit more true that they're gamble to not burn it down, and hold onto all their non-CMC best players, is fully paying off. Finally for the Bucs, it turns out that two drives against a bad coached team who is choking, to win a game 17-16 against said same bad team that is now 4-9, does not suddenly mean everything is fixed. They're just a bad team right now.

Tier V - The "Live Spoilers" Duo

19.) Green Bay Packers  =  5-8  (263-302)
18.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  5-8  (294-294)

I guess the Jags have an outside shot of winning the division, especially with a Week 18 matchup against Tennessee, but I think the Jags are too high variance to be comfortable there. The Packers offense has been good for about a month now when Rodgers is in there, and enough so to the point the rumblings of Love wanting a trade have started. For the Jags, they're back at an even point differential, and the great prophecy of mine of them being the 2016 Eagles, is looking as true as ever. Lawrence has really settled down over the past five weeks, and while the defense needs a lot of improvement, if Lawrence continues to improve and be a true starting QB, it enables the Jags to invest most of their draft capital on the defensive side.

Tier VI - The "Soft Middle" Quinto

17.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  7-6  (295-326)
16.) New York Giants  =  7-5-1  (267-300)
15.) Tennessee Titans  =  7-6  (241-276)
14.) Detroit Lions  =  6-7  (349-347)
13.) Seattle Seahawks  =  7-6  (342-334)

The Chargers got a big win yesterday, but their fundamentals, from their bad point differential, and porous defense (yesterday excluded) still have me a bit worried about their staying power. Herbert quieted a bunch of skeptics with his play, but the offense is still just not dynamic enough. For the Giants, they have a huge game this week to right the ship, but the lack of weapons for Jones is increasingly more nad more rearing itself as a problem they can't overcome. For the Titans, its basically the same as the Giants, but in their case they have enough of a cushion to very likely hold onto the division anyway. Tannehill's interceptions are becoming a real problem. For the Lions, they have a pretty clear path to the playoffs, but the defense has to play better. Minnesota self-inflicted wounds handed that game to Detroit. They'll need a couple more like that. Jameson Williams being back was a huge boost. For the Seahawks, there's a bit of a sense that the clock is striking midnight, but even through the loss and the interceptions, Geno is still playing really well. Carroll just has to get that team playing the run better, as all their recent losses share that underlying theme of them getting overwhelmed on the ground.

Tier VII - The "Great AFC East Race" Trio

12.) XXXXXX

11.) New York Jets  =  7-6  (264-243)

10.) Miami Dolphins  =  8-5  (316-312)

XXXXXXXX. The Jets defense is truly excellent, but are there enough easy games for the Mike White (if not Joe Flacco) offense to score enough to clinb back into the playoffs? Even if ultimately they find themselves outside the playoffs, this has been a great year to establish Saleh's place as a trusted head coach for them. For the Dolphins, we've all lauded priase of Mike McDaniel, and for good reason, but now he gets his first real test. His offense looked fallow two straight weeks, including against a bad Chargers defense. Can he pivot back? Can Tua settle down if things are going perfectly per the script? These challenges always come to you eventually in the NFL.

Tier VIII - The "Quasi-Contenders" Trio

9) Washington Commanders  =  7-5-1  (253-256)
8.) Minnesota Vikings  =  10-3  (312-313)

7.) Baltimore Ravens  =  9-4  (301-250)

The Commanders defense surging, and skill position players all healthy, and a relatively light schedule gives me a lot of confidence in them. Win this week hosting the Giants and they're basically locked into the playoffs. For the Vikings, oddly I leave that game feeling ok about them. Their offense was as good as ever. Justin Jefferson is an absurdity as always. The OL looked better. That defense is way too dependent on turnovers though. For the Ravens, they're basically locked into a playoff spot so they really shouldn't rush Lamar. That said, if they're now down to the 3rd string guy, retaining the division could be a real challenge. They have to do 1-game better than Cincinnati ahead of their Week 18 game in the Jungle. Without Huntley, and truly even with him, that could be a problem. The Ravens are very fortunate that their schedule is so soft.

Tier IX - The "I Still have Some Question" Trio

6.) San Francisco 49ers  =  9-4  (317-197)

5.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  9-4  (335-265)
4.) Dallas Cowboys  =  10-3  (360-229)

The 49ers are just a machine right now, and Purdy gives them an element of verticality that they didn't have with Jimmy. Losing Deebo for a bit will hurt, but that's also part of the reason you got McCaffrey, to still function if there were further injuries. For the Bengals, the defense has shorn up well in recent weeks, and while there's a revolving door at wideout in terms of health, Burrow has reached just a stable level, and their system with going all-in on shotgun has given them a very high floor to subside while Higgins and Boyd heal themselves up. For the Cowboys, I'm always ok giving a team a bit of a pass when in the long stretch of a season they play an unexpectedly poor game. In their case, they still won. The division is still probably not going to happen, but the Cowboys also face a bit of a challenge right now with the OL injuries and losing Steele for the season.

Tier X - The "I Will Not Be Taking Any Questions" Trio

3.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  10-3  (384-298)
2.) Buffalo Bills  =  10-3  (353-221)

1.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  12-1  (386-248)

For the Chiefs and Bills, these weren't the cleanest of games. The Chiefs looked amazing in going up 27-0, but far less so when they let the dormant Broncos offense wake up. Some of this is just taking the foot off the gas, more so on defense. This should scare the Chiefs a bit as it was a common occurrence say in 2020, when they went 14-2 but had a poor point differential for that gaudy a record. The Bills offense is in a low period, and Allen needs to get more from Gabriel, McKenzie and Knox. Especially against teams that, like the Jets, can single up a good corner to slow Diggs. The defense however has done tremendously well building a pass rush even without Von. For the Eagles, there's really no real questions right now except posing hypothetical scenarios, your "well, how's it going to look when they're down 14-0 against a good team" types of discourse. They survived their own low period a couple weeks back and are back to hammering teams, with an offense that is getting more impressive each week.

Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

1.) Buffalo Bills  =  14-3

2.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  14-3

3.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  12-5

4.) Tennessee Titans  =  9-8

5.) Baltimore Ravens  =  11-6
6.) Miami Dolphins  =  11-6

7.) New York Jets  =  10-7

NFC

1.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  15-2

2.) San Francisco 49ers  =  12-5

3.) Minnesota Vikings  =  12-5

4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  9-8

5.) Dallas Cowboys  =  13-4

6.) Washington Commanders  =  10-6-1

7.) Detroit Lions  =  9-8

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Arizona Cardinals (X-X)  @  Denver Broncos (3-10)  (4:05 - FOX)

15.) Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8)  @  Carolina Panthers (5-8)  (1:00 - CBS)

14.) Los Angeles Rams (3-10)  @  Green Bay Packers (5-8)  (MNF - ESPN)

13.) Philadelphia Eagles (12-1)  @  Chicago Bears (3-10)  (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Kansas City Chiefs (10-3)  @  Houston Texans (1-11-1)  (1:00 - CBS)

11.) Baltimore Ravens (9-4)  @  Cleveland Browns (5-8)  (Sat, 4:30 - NFLN)

10.) Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1)  @  Minnesota Vikings (10-3)  (Sat, 1:00 - NFLN)
9.) New England Patriots (X-X)  @  Las Vegas Raiders (5-8)  (4:05 - FOX)

8.) Atlanta Falcons (5-8)  @  New Orleans Saints (4-9)  (1:00 - FOX)
7.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-4)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)  (4:25 - CBS)
6.) Dallas Cowboys (10-3)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (6-7)  (1:00 - FOX)
5.) San Francisco 49ers (9-4)  @  Seattle Seahawks (7-6)  (TNF - Prime)
4.) Tennessee Titans (7-6)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (7-6)  (4:25 - CBS)
3.) Detroit Lions (6-7)  @  New York Jets (7-6)  (1:00 - CBS)
2.) Miami Dolphins (8-5)  @  Buffalo Bills (10-3)  (Sat, 8:15 - NFLN)
1.) New York Giants (7-5-1)  @  Washington Commanders (7-5-1)  (SNF - NBC)

Top 20 TV Shows of 2022: #5 - #1

5.) Better Call Saul (Season 6, AMC)

May seem low, and maybe if I ever rewatch Saul years from now I may kick myself for this. But all said, I have one main question with the season that slightly hurts it in my eyes: the ending of three straight episodes on "Gene Takovic" world in gray. Certainly we ew we were going to get the resolution to that particular story at some point, and the show cleaned up all other business in excellent, and beautiful ways - capped with the stunning shot of Lalo and Howard staring face to face, dead in a dug grave in the basement of what would become the superlab. If the show ended in that instant, it is probably higher. In a way it did, as from the next episode we went to Gene world, and some of that was beautiful, as well as unexpected, such as the return of Marie. But in the end, it became just a bit too jarring. It's great that Kim didn't die, but her neutered and Gene/Saul/Jimmy taking the fall was a slight letdown. In the end, Better Call Saul never for me reached the heights that Breaking Bad did, but that is as little an insult as humanly possible. The show did so much else so well, even in this season, showing with painstaking detail the beauty in people acting, thinking and executing in painstaking detail over and over again against an ever bueatiful vista of Mexico and New Mexico. I have no idea what Vince Gilligan will do next, but I believe him that he's leaving Albuquerque behind, and doing os in stly.e

4.) Only Murders in the Building (Season 2, Hulu)

This was my #1 show last year, and to be honest it remained more or less as good. I think this is to fairly say I do think TV was slgihtly better in 2022 as it was in 2021, but in the end they were always going to have a hard act to follow and did a damn good job. The side plots this year felt a bit more weird than normal, particularly everything to do with Martin Short's character realizing Teddy was the real father of the person he thought was his son. But the actual plot was amazing, it weaved people like Tina Fey's character excellently, and as always our various sojourns to view the world through other people in the Arconia's eyes were great as always. At the end of the day, the fact that Steve Martin and Martin Short, in their golden years, are slaving away putting together one of the sharpest, funniest, best constructed shows on TV is amazing enough, but the fact that they've simultaneously revived Selena Gomez's career, and seem to be a magnet for great guest stars (Amy Schumer being this year's Sting) makes it all the greater. More than anything, I don't want this magical pearl of a show to end. It still amazes me it was made at all, but every moment, every episode is just a pure joy in the Arconia.

3.) Winning Time (Season 1, HBO)

As a basketball fan, yes there were some odd inaccuracies, such as key games that they somewhat changed the ending for, and them messing up the cutting of Spencer Haywood, but I'll give them some artistic license. Winning Time had to do arguably the toughest job of any show since maybe People v. OJ Simpson, portray not only real world people, but people who are supe rfamous. If anything, it was even tougher in this version because they had to get people to play basketball reasonably well. Somehow they nailed it, casting incredible talents and people that strikingly resembled, if not acted like, Magic Johnson and Kareem. Even the most stunt-casty of them in Adrien Brody started morphing into Pat Riley the second he slicked back his hair. I'm so curious how long this show plans to go for, but for a first season, and one that truly was dramatic from Jerry Buss buying the team despite being close to broke, and him sexing up the Lakers, to everything to do with Jerry West, they made the thing work. Some of this high ranking may be me admittedly givint them a bit of extra credit for just how challenging a task the show was to pull off, but by God did they pull it off with something that was incredibly heartfeft, funnyEleven , bombastic, sleazy-in-the-right-way, and so much else. 

2.) The Dropout (Hulu)

I'm a sucker for a well told story of failure, of hubris, of all the stuff we want to wish would be bestowed upon the thousands that have thought of, led and profited off of get rich quick schemes, and while some may have prefered the shows this year about Uber or WeWork, for me, the one on Theranos was perfect, mostly because of how good a show it was. It told the stoy fairly, it told the story honestly. It casted excellently, with Amanda Seyfried doing an amazing job protraying Elizabeth Holmes, and the actor who played Sunny being every bit as frenzied and conniving as you would want. More than anything though, the show explained so well how so many people can be led astray beleiveing what they wanted to hope was true.

It was such a frustrating watch, in a good way. How many times did I just yell at the screen "Make her test the damn thing for you". The fact that this show came out the same year that she was convicted to 10+ years in jail made it even more poignant. It may seem a bit trite to hyper-focus on one person's fall from grace, but as the show so beautifully exposed, she knowingly built a house of cards and never could find a way to pull the plug. I hope we get more of these types of shows in the year to come. And I hope if and when we do, they are made as emotionally-charged and nauseatingly true as The Dropout.

1.) Stranger Things (Season 4, NETFLIX)

Look, I get that this would get some blowback. There's enough people that consider Stranger Things a bit too fluff and bombast, and I get it. Yes, there was a lot of hand-wringing, some deserved, about the ridiculous run times of the last few "episodes". But what I say is I don't care. Nothing I watched was better, made me more intensely caught up in it all, made me "feel" more, than Stranger Things. The show somehow was able to pivot away from kid-focused stories in perfect way, doing a season that was straight up horror, and doijng it very well.

Yes, the disconnected plots were rough at times, particularly everything with Hopper in Russia - but the payoff, with him killing the Demogorgon at the same time Robin, Nancy and Steve were killing the last vestiges of Vecna, with Running Up That Hill playing. I don't think any show has used music this well since The Young Pope. They just crafted and mined the hell out of the season's storyline, from the painstakingly slow reveal that Vecna was Henry Creel and more than that the "One" to Eleven's "Eleven". That was perfect. 

The long run times in the end don't bother me, just pretend they were two 45-minute episodes instead of a 90-minute episode and you are fine. The show earned all of that anyway. It was able to showcase a considerable amount of acting talent, using the now teenage actors, aside from maybe Will, really well. I was a lover of Stranger Things from its first season, and stayed with it through a largely uneven third season, for a perfect payoff here, and I can't wait for its finale in 2024.

Top 20 TV Shows of 2022: #10 - #6

10.) House of the Dragon (Season 1, HBO)

The first episode was an intriguing primer, but hot damn the second the old GoT theme played to start the second I was all the way back in. This show answered the age old question of what if Game of Thrones was jsut more focused on one or two plots instead of 5-10. Well, the answer is it ends up pretty damn great. Yes, the time jumps were jarring at times (mostly on who didn't change actors or appearance), and there were certain elements that were maddening, but there are some aspects of the show that remain peerless, exhibiting the best parts of its forebearer. First, writing just incredible villains. The Greens are right up there with the Lannisters and it took no time for that to happen. The actual shooting was excellent (admittedly, I didn't have the dark-screen issues many seemed to), and everything with a dragon was great. In theory this season was all preamble to the real war to come, and if they can pull it off - and given how involved GRRM seems to be, I would bet on them doing so - I expect future seasons of this to fly up the list. I was always really interested as to how this show would be received given how woefully the last season of GoT was, but what shows is that if you tell a good story, tell it with clarity and conviction, you can make up pretty easily for past mistakes.

9.) The White Lotus (Season 2, HBO)

It's hard to compare seasons of anthology shows, but also it could be argued its besides the point. But Mike White's brilliant show invites it by being the same structure, with the season opening up with an unknown dead person, and then you meet a whiole host of mostly rich, white, weirdos (but in Italy). But then we got that kind of attuned version of the theme song, and away we went into some incredible stuff. Not all of it worked as well, particularly there was no Armaund replacement this year, but the story of the two whores scamming Albie had a good conclusion, and everything with the two couples worked, specifically the ambiguity of how it all wraps up, with the uncertainty of how cheated on who, and who knew what. Of course, its hard to talk about The White Lotus without the end of Jennifer Coolidge's arc, and I think it encapsulates everything with this season. It was a bit wornout in the early episodes, but man did it come together super well. If anything, to summarize the sophomore season, I think it was better crafted plot, but less just in the moment brilliance that the first season had.

8.) Righteous Gemstones (Season 2, HBO)

Somehow we went from 2019 to 2022 without the show returning (granted, I know perfectly well why, as there was this whole pandemic thing). It was such a great return though, with them fine tuning everything that made the first season great, accentuating all the positives, such as making the Kelvin and Judy Gemstone characters even better than before, and while using him less than I would ahve liked, saving Baby Billy for some amazing work. They created this world that combined very real issues with teh church (the shameless grifting, the ability to squirm away from scandal, the actual murder main plot) with such craziness that Eric Andre, at basically his most Eric Andre-ness, could seamlessly fit in. Again, my only real qualm was that I don't think there's a level of Baby Billy I am against, so any time he wasn't involved was a missed opportunity. In the end, the show has what could be a very troublesome plot to work with fine tuned to a science, and contineud to mix truly great comedy with about as dark as storylines as you can get in what is on its face a 30-minute comedy.

7.) We Own This City (HBO)

I'm a sucker for anything David Simon, it is fair to say. Add in a return to the Baltimore Police Department, and a show that featured a whole lot of people that were on The Wire (including some hilarious casting, like Marlo as a cop), and I was fully bought in. My only true quibble was the time jumping was very hard to follow, but admittedly that's a small price to pay for what was an incredible series. One of the few criticisms often levied at The Wire was it portrayed an idealized version of cops. I never fully bought this but for whatever truth there was in that, We Own This City broke that down squarely. This was all about crooked cops, about a task force let to do whatever it pleased and run havoc on a city, and how everyone enabled it in the name of stats. There were a lot of similarities to The Wire in the way it was crafted - the way it was shot, the realness of the scenes and the dialogue, but this had a hyperfocus to tell one story (granted a few threads, like a less effective one about government employees trying to monitor a consent decree) and do it with aplomb. Two things about the show, first it made me immediately start rewatching The Wire (in Season 4 right now, and man is it heavy with those damn kids), and second, it shows that as good as David Simon is at telling very different stories (Treme, The Deuce), Baltimore is his main muse.

6.) What We Do in the Shadows (Season 5, FX)

I think its official (though I'm doing this without really looking at the list ahead), What We Do in the Shadows is the best pure sitcom on TV. I know for a fact one of my higher ranked shows is very funny, but there's zero real meaningful plot in this show other than to service about as absurd, but brilliant a cast of characters put on tv. It took a while to admit this, but truly it is true. The writing is incredible, and some of the ideas, like to make Colin reborn an grow from a newborn to a surly teenager over the course of one year, was inspired. But really the performances are what makes this, particularly none better than Matt Berry. I will never not laugh at his ridiculous line read of "New York Citaaaayyyy" in the House Hunters episode. Nandor with the genie was an endless source of laughs. Like another slightly absurdist, but sharper than you think, comedy on FX (Always Sunny), I honestly think this show could go for 10+ seasons easily without losing its sharpness and effectiveness. I truly never want this to end. They've even figured out a way to use Kristen Schaal really well, which can be a challenge, but much like everything else, they excelled at it.