Wednesday, October 26, 2022

The Calm Before the Storm



Early in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Mariners, with me stuck at work in an all-hands meeting, I had friends text me about how Verlander was getting rocked. Of course it was out of friendly hate, but I had a weird response that I actually think at the time was honest: that I didn't care, and I was ok if they lost to Seattle. For one, watching the Mariners run to the playoffs was fun - always fun to watch a fanbase that had gone without success for so long experience it. But mostly, because I was kind of OK with the idea of not having nerve-wracking, blood-pressure-raising October and November nights. Too many of these from 2017 to 2021, some special (if some later tarred by scandal), and some awful.
October baseball is a special type of excruciating joy. It isn't the minute to minute heart attacks of say playoff hockey, but the slow burn of watching outs go by, counting them down or up from basically the third inning onwards. Five straight years of dealing with it, including five straight trips to the ALCS, three World Series trips, and one somewhat tarnished World Series title. That's a great return, but also a whole lot of nightly drama to take in one month a year. I was ok with avoiding all of that this year. And then Yordan hit a truly unique walk-off home run, and I forgot about all that and wanted it back.

From there on, going through the ridiculous machinations of the 18-inning game, escaping ten successive innings of potential walk-offs, to the entirety of the Astros confident, efficient sweep of the Yankees (more on that in a bit), I was fully back in on rooting for this team. And it really is a team, more than the 25 players on this years roster, tis franchise. This franchise that has changed 20 of 25 people since 2017 but still got to at least this point each of the last six years. And even if I'm setting myself up for heartbreak, much like 2019 and 2021 (more to come on that in a bit as well), I don't mind it - just a week left of more drama, heartburn and chewing fingernails.

As I sit here two days before the start of the 2022 World Series, I am fully at peace knowing I will for a week not be at peace. Especially the way this started, with teh Astros going 7-0 heading into the World Series. The Astros are easily the favorites, having a far better regular season, an undefeated start to the playoffs, and a deep, deep pitching staff that should shut down any team. But then again, the warning signs are all over.

Some are more ephemeral - the similarity of having to face another NL East Team that had a ridiculous second half run after a slow start, basically the same recipe that the Nationals and Braves had entering their prior world series. Some are more legitimate - the fact that the entire Phillies offense has been red hot and their wild bullpen has dropped their walk rate and started locking down games. There are signs.

But what is baseball if there weren't. All playoffs long we heard about how random it has all become, as we saw three 100+ win teams knocked out on the NL side of the bracket. Some blamed the expanded playoffs with two more teams, not realizing that doesn't really explain the Dodgers or Braves. Some sighted the extended "bye" for the top seeds, despite three of the four teams winning their game 1 off of their bye. But while all that madness was happening, the Astros plugged along, and calmly ripped out the Yankees.

In retrospect, the Astros were much better than the Yankees, but for sure I spent a bit of time worrying about things. Unlike 2019, the Astros played well in Game 1, and much like 2017, they won the first two games in tight, well played games. The biggest drama being Framber Valdez's double-error, and Aaron Judge blaming the roof for being open. But then I remembered 2017, when the Astros turned those two close wins in Houston into three awful, soulless, haunted losses in New York. That was my intro to the AL in a way. This year was my intro into accepting that for all the Astros faults, and even if we do lose a third World Series - we owned the Yankees.

We can do that, but that doesn't mean we will win this world series. But it doesn't matter. It's about these runs. It's about being a fan of the Patriots of the MLB (another World Series Title would help in that comparison, for sure), being a fan of a team that makes four World Series in six years. Sure, I can complain about the heartache and heartbreak. I can complain about the ruined October nights, but I need to learn to love those October nights, love those quiet innings, those 30 seconds in between pitches, when the mind races to all the outcomes. There should be enjoyment in the pain, the process, the waiting.

At this point, I don't really know what I'm saying, though that is generally a decent reflection of the inner thoughts of a baseball fan whose team is playing deep into October. There are a lot of unknowns, a lot of worries, a lot of potential. I'm ready to get my heart broken again, but more than ready to remember the memories of this 7-0 run, and the ALCS wins in 2019 and 2020, or the comeback to force Game 7 in 2020. This can be a culmination, or a continuation, but what happened should be enjoyed nonetheless.

Monday, October 24, 2022

2022 NFL: Week 8 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Bryce Young Sweepstakes" Duo

32.) Houston Texans  =  1-4-1  (106-137)
31.) Detroit Lions  =  1-5  (146-194)

There's some beauty in two teams with the most obvious need to upgrade at QB being the two remaining 1-loss teams and lining themselves up perfectly for a top pick. No surprise either with it being these two teams. Yes, the Lions has some friskiness early, but that seems to have fully washed away. Similar with the Texans who have perfected losing by 8-17 points. The Lions in theory have a better core around them on offense at least, but need so much improvement on defense. Aidan Hutchinson does seem like a future star at least.


Tier II - The "Probably Over, but still Working" Quadro

30.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  2-5  (107-162)
29.) Carolina Panthers  =  2-5  (124-149)
28.) New Orleans Saints  =  2-5  (175-200)
27.) Denver Broncos  =  2-5  (100-115)

In theory the Panthers and Saints are just one game back in the division, but realistically all four of these teams are done for the season. The Steelers will remain competitive most weeks because Mike Tomlin is just that competent, but their defensive issues can't be overcome until Watt comes back (if he does). For the Panthers and Saints, their have similarly low floors of being good enough to stay competitive in games. The Panthers blowout said a lot more about Tampa, than it did about a Panthers team that is going through an expected post coach-firing bump. The Saints probably will turn back to Jameis asap, but the damage is probably already done at this point. For the Broncos, hopefully Wilson comes back soon, but the season is more or less lost at this point. I guess with the availability of a 7th seed I may live to regret making the proclamation now, but too many teams to overcome, and a harder than you think schedule left to play (including both Chiefs games).


Tier III - The "On Life Support, but still Beating" Quadro

26.) Cleveland Browns  =  2-5  (168-186)
25.) Washington Commanders  =  3-4  (125-156)
24.) Arizona Cardinals  =  3-4  (156-176)
23.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  2-4  (163-150)


Not sure why I have the Browns here and not in the prior group to be honest, other than not liking to do sets of 5 all that often. The Browns are a team when healthy can be competent, but the ceiling of a Brissett offense hsa been reached. The Commanders have enough talent to make a run, but are suddenly in by far the best division in the sport and unsettled at QB. Getting Young back, when it happens, will certainly help. The Cardinals are right there in the division, but I just have no real faith in the coaching. Getting DeAndre Hopkins back in a couple weeks though is something I had forgetting about that could, in theory, unlock the offense a bit for Kyler. I think the 9-2 start last year was a mirage, but with Hopkins they're definitely a better team than they've shown. For the Raiders, the close losses will probably haunt them, but they suddenly have built a very reliable OL, and a positive point differential, not really built by blowouts, is impressive.


Tier IV - The "Muddled Mess of the NFL, Pt. 1" Trio

22.) Chicago Bears  =  3-4  (126-132)
21.) Indianapolis Colts  =  3-3-1  (113-140)
20.) Atlanta Falcons  =  3-4  (163-171)

Hopefully soon we can avoid the "the whole NFL [bar Buffalo, Kansas City] is bad" but when these four teams are right in that middle of the league, it is hard to argue. The Bears are 3-4 and for the first time maybe ever seemed like they had a coherent game plan around Fields. It still bugs me that he's a full year behind Hurst - he has a great arm, is generally accurate, and the Bears need to push that a bit more. The Colts and Rams are at the stage that we should be writing them off, but the Colts are in striking distance of Tennessee with a good defense that should improve if/when Shaq Leonard gets healthy. But the switch to Ehlinger is such a wild card for the rest of the season. The Falcons offense is just so scheme and weirdness dependent that they'll have days like yesterday. The defense without AJ Terrell is a mess. That weirdness will steal them some wins, and technically they're tied for 1st right now? 


Tier V - The "Muddled Mess of the NFL, Pt. 2" Trio

19.) Los Angeles Rams  =  3-3  (104-126)
18.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  2-5  (155-137)
17.) New England Patriots  =  3-4  (155-146)

The Rams are a half game back of first. In other divisions, they would be done. The Jags are my pet team that I can't distance myself from. The down to down talent is there, the point differential is there. They probably should ahve won yesterday. In many ways, they may end up like the 2016 Eagles (Pederson's first year there), a team that finished 7-9 with a positive point differential, setting them up for their 13-3 and Super Bowl season the next year. A lot of that will fall on Lawrence who has to get more consistent, but the core is there. For the Patriots, there's a lot of questions right now. First, is Zappe just the guy now? He had a few good throws early but really struggled in the second half, looking much like the turnover prone Mac is when trailing. The rush defense was also brutal. They should get some benefit of the doubt after prior performances though.


Tier VI - The "We have to Talk about these QBs" Duo

17.) Green Bay Packers  =  3-4  (128-146)
16.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  3-4  (124-124)


A lot is being made of these two teams and for good reason, the two most accomplished current QBs, two of the five or six most accomplished QBs ever, struggling to 3-4 togehter. When the Packers beat the Bucs 14-12 to go to 3-1 what we should've realized is it was two bad teams. I don't honestly know whose problems are more fixable. Is it the Packers who could conceivably get more chemistry as the year goes on with new pieces, or the Bucs who are healthy and have a better track record, but seem so far away from it. Both defenses are underperforming as well, the Bucs more so recently with some attrition and being forced to play more. At the end of the day, these are both bad teams and both have had relatively easy shcedules so far. If not for the names on teh back of their QBs, they would be lower down.


Tier VII - The "Upwardly Mobile Middle Class" Quadro

15.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  4-3  (164-189)
14.) Miami Dolphins  =  4-3  (147-165)
13.) San Francisco 49ers  =  3-4  (145-133)
12.) Seattle Seahawks  =  4-3  (183-186)


At some point the Chargers have to show up and play the way we think they can. Brandon Staley is a pet love for many analytically-minded football people but he really hasn't proven himself as a coach yet and his defense is starting to get torched, even before the recent injuries. Herbert also still doesn't look exactly right, or at minimum they're calling plays thinking he is not. The Dolphins are 4-0 when Tua finishes a game. Yes, two of those were miracle wins, but they have a high floor when he plays and he got back in time before the AFC could run away from them. The 49ers are getting healthy, and I think that loss was a lot more about how good the Chiefs are. We'll get a better sense of them in the coming weeks - they were also treading water around .500 for much of last season. For the Seahawks, I don't buy them long term. The defense is playing above its head, but games like their 32-39 loss in New Orleans are never too far away. And yes, seven games isn't enough to get me fully bought into Geno. I will say his chemistry with Lockett and Metcalf - who seems to have escaped major injury - is great.


Tier VIII - The "Tail end of the AFC" Trio

10.) New York Jets  =  5-2  (159-137)
9.) Tennessee Titans  =  4-2  (115-128)

XXXX. The Jets may not get much higher than this as injuries may start to catch up on them. Losing Breece Hall and another tackle this week. The defense is healthy, and Sale is coachign them up really well, but I do wonder how many losses could they take. Wilson may have to get unleashed more, which long term may be fine. For the Titans, there is a bit of "how are they doing this?" but we all asked that the whole of last season as well. They reached a bit of a happy medium on how to use Henry, and the secondary has really stepped up in the wake of a less effective pass rush without Harold Landry. It helps that they may ahve a Top-5/10 coach in Vrabel.


Tier IX - The "How is this Happening!?" Uno

8.) New York Giants  =  6-1  (150-130)

At some point, the record is the record. I'm sure there have been teams that were 6-1 that fell off, especially when four of their wins are 4th Quarter comebacks, but there are a few certain truths here. The Giants have a good defense that is deep and well run by Wink. Saquon is a monster and barring injury should stay that way. The OL is getting better week by week as they start covering better for their major weaknesses. If the pass offense can stabilize they can be a really good team. But to me they've done enough to think that at worst they'll be a 10-7 type #5 seed.


Tier X - The "Great AFC North Race of 2023" Duo

7.) Baltimore Ravens  =  4-3  (181-161)
6.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  4-3  (173-132)

It seemed that these two would battle it out for the AFC North, and it took a few twists and turns, with the Bengals starting 0-2, and the Browns quick start, but seven games in and here we are. I actually think at this point the Bengals, despite losing to Baltimore, have a better resume and outlook. The OL gets better each week, and the pick-happy Burrow was clearly just a week-1 mirage. Force-feeding Chase the ball a bit early is paying huge dividends, adn the defense has a very high floor of performance. For the Ravens, they finally escaped blowing another lead. Advanced metrics, and me personally, still like them loads, but they have to get over whatever ails them late in games. The pass rush coming back to life was a nice sign that they have to continue forwards.


Tier XI - The "Is This Our NFC?" Duo

5.) Dallas Cowboys  =  5-2  (134-104)
4.) Minnesota Vikings  =  5-1  (139-118)

The biggest issue with people's perceptions of hte NFC seems to be that the teams people thought would be good are the ones I ranked way back in the middle, and these two (put Philly aside for a second) are near the top. But let's get used to it, these are good teams. Dallas has Dak back, and that defense remains excellent and has started to pile up turnovers again. So well schemed and coached. For the Vikings, its similar but about that offense. Yes, we would like more upside from Kirk, but with a healthy set of skill guys, this version of Kirk is good enough with a defense that has played better than expected. Patrick Peterson's ressurrection is a big part of that. Yes, maybe no one would have expected a potential 12-5 Cowboys team playing a 13-4 Vikings team in the NFC Divisional Round, but here we are. Accept it.


Tier XII - The "Big 3" Trio

3.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  5-2  (223-172)
2.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  6-0  (161-105)
1.) Buffalo Bills  =  5-1  (176-81)

We can say that there's a lot of bad teams in the NFL, but there's also three clearly very good ones. If we look at the Chiefs, their losses came in one inexplicable special teams disaster, and to the team ranked #1. The Bills only loss came in a game where they outgained their opponent 2:1. The Eagles have no losses, and a couple good wins. All three teams have done an excellent job so far. The Chiefs offense is incredible, with Mahomes's connection with Juju and MVS getting better every week. The defense will slowly get their guys back as well. For the Eagles, we;ll long have questions on if they can make a comeback if down in teh second half, and they'll need to play better in second halfs after taking huge leads with great 2nd quarters, but these are nit picks. And the Bills are everything we could have wanted, even without having great turnover (especially, fumble) luck so far.


Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games:

Byes: Kansas City Chiefs (5-2), Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)

15.) Denver Broncos (2-5)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5)  (9:30am - ESPN)
14.) Miami Dolphins (4-3)  @  Detroit Lions (1-5)  (1:00 - CBS)
13.) Tennessee Titans (4-2)  @  Houston Texans (1-4-1)  (4:05 - CBS)

I call it "Who Cares" Sunday, as we get some really bad matchups to start us off. To be fair to the Dolphions and Titans, they are +.500 teams, but are pretty uninteresting ones, the Dolphins getting dragged down by a team that may be fully out of it in Detroit. For the Broncos and Jaguars, this would be pretty low even if the Broncos were playing well.


12.) Las Vegas Raiders (2-4)  @  New Orleans Saints (2-5)  (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Washington Commanders (3-4)  @  Indianapolis Colts (3-3-1)  (4:25 - FOX)

I call it "I truly mean it, who cares?" Sunday, as truly this week is another rough one, more because we get a lot of these types of matchups. The Raiders and Saints may play a fairly high scoring game which should at least be entertaining but NFC South terrible-ness notwithstanding, both are already pretty far out of the playoff race. For the Commanders and Colts, they both are I guess in the palyoff race? We also get to Sam Ehlinger for the first time, so there is some intrigue there.


10.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (6-0)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Pennsylvania may not even care" Sunday, as we get a really listless battle of PA. The Eagles truly have a really easy schedule, and a bad Steelers team off of their own bye is another cupcake. The only saving grace for Philly fans is this is the offday of the World Series.


9.) Carolina Panthers (2-5)  @  Atlanta Falcons (3-4)  (1:00 - FOX) 
8.) Chicago Bears (3-4)  @  Dallas Cowboys (5-2)  (1:00 - FOX)
7.) Arizona Cardinals (3-4)  @  Minnesota Vikings (5-1)  (1:00 - FOX)
6.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-3)  @  Cleveland Browns (2-5)  (MNF - ESPN)

I call it "Interesting, for a lot of weird ways" Sunday and Monday, as we get a lot of weird games with intriguing elements. For the Panthers and Falcons, to see which can stake their claim as somehow the 2nd best team in the division. For the Bears, if they can follow up what seemed to be a turning point for a Fields-offense against one of the league's best defenses. For the Vikings, if they can go to 6-1 while still being highly questioned. And finally, to see if Burrow can continue his dominance - an offense as fun as any when they are on fire.


5.) San Francisco 49ers (3-4)  @  Los Angeles Rams (3-3)  (4:25 - FOX)

I call it "It wasn't supposed to be this way" Sunday, as we get the 2nd NFC Championship Game rematch in quick succession. In a weird way, maybe this is the optimal way for this to have gone down. The Rams are a shell of themsleves, and the 49ers are as high variance as they were last year even after supposedly stabilizing. The winner here is probably off the hot seat for the week, but the loser? They are in a lot of trouble.


4.) New England Patriots (3-4)  @  New York Jets (5-2)  (1:00 - CBS)
3.) New York Giants (6-1)  @  Seattle Seahawks (4-3)  (4:25 - FOX)


I call it "New York, New York!!" Sunday, as with both the Yankees and Mets gone, we New Yorkers can focus on how their teams are balling out. Both of these are winnable games, which would be amazing, if New York could reach the half-way point at 13-3 combined. The Jets are probably bigger favorites in this game than any Patriots game in a long, long time (if pre-Belichick). The winner of Giants and Seahawks will be truly having an amazing season. Good stuff here.


2.) Baltimore Ravens (4-3)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)  (TNF - Prime)
1.) Green Bay Packers (3-4)  @  Buffalo Bills (5-1)  (SNF - ESPN)

I call it "Gen-Z's Revenge" Thursday and Sunda, as If you ever wanted a "changing of the guard" weekend, well here you have it. The Ravens have a chance to send Brady to two games under.500 for the first time in his career (seriously). They have a chance to really shine a light on what a mess TB is becoming. And then you get the Bills, off of a bye, at home, in primetime, getting a chance to do something similar to Rodgers (granted, he';s been more than two games below .500 before). These both could be blowouts, they could be close, but who cares. For one week, I'm all in on #Narrative.

Sunday, October 23, 2022

My Top-12: Beer Bars, Cocktail Bars, Clubs

 On a combination of my travels for pleasure and some for work, I've set-up a spread sheet with the same general outlay each time. Some of it is arranging what I want to do each AM and PM and Lunch and Dinner. But there's a spot for night. There's a second tab then that breaks "adult/drinking" activities into various categories: Craft Breweries, Beer Bars (i.e. a place known for beer on tap, but not specifically a brewery of its own), Cocktail Bars and EDM Clubs. So, let's put aside craft breweries since honestly while some stick out I've just been to way too many by now, let's go with the other three to build a Top-10 of each.

Best Beer Bars

12.) Magerks  (Horsham, USA - 2018)



It's weird ranking this one but I'd gone there enough during my project in suburban Pennsylvania that it easily makes the list. It was a giant upscale BrickHouse Tavern type place, but with a far more extensive and interesting tap list of about 30-40 beers, all servied in a giant bar in the middle. The kept the wall of windows open which gave a great atmosphere. They showed every type of sport on their TVs that were above the giant rectangular bar. All of this was great. The place it was in? take it or leave it. If this same place was in a major city, it might be Top-5.


11.) The Raleigh Times  (Raleigh, USA - 2019, 2020)



A couple of these are places I went to during various consulting gigs, including The Raleigh Times, built in the ground floor of the old newspaper building. Technically this is a full service bar more than just a beer bar, and often I went there for food when arriving into town on a late flight. But from a drinks perspective they had about 20 local (Carolinas, Virginia, Georgia) beers on tap, with a great variety of styles, ABV levels, etc. The place also had a really relaxed vibe, with music on a rooftop - though this was more reading it than seeing it as generally that was on weekends.


10.) Loyal Legion  (Portland, USA - 2017)



No surprise that a place like Portland that had itself a crazy collection of craft breweries, has a place where they had about 60 beers on tap, at least half being local craft beer. The bar is large, and in theory is a full service bar, but the imposing row of taps make it clear where they make their money. The beer list featured a ton of stouts as well. In the end, the over-abundance of options is somewhat of a drawback. You would think a bit more discretion could be used. 


9.) NYKS  (Montreal, Canada - many times)



So this one is largely on the vibes side but they do have a solid beer selection, including 2-3 beers of 2-3 local Montreal staples, including generally dark/stout beers. The atmosphere, spitting distance of the Place des Festivals where the Jazz Fest is held. I did go a few times unconnected to the Jazz Fest - including in the dead of winter arriving late into Montreal, it was just a great little refuge in the heart of the city.


8.) Hair of the Dog (Bangkok, Thailand - 2019, 2022)



Hair of the Dog technically sells its own beer as well, but there's not many of that avaiable. What there is a ton of available are other peoples beer, a great mix of IPAs and white ales to really cool you down in the otherwise oppressive heat of Bangkok. The place is run by two Canadians who after moving to Bangkok grew frustrated by the lack of places like this, and they did something about it. The decor is great, with video screens playing random films in the back, with a mix of locals and transplants enjoying a few brews. Great place, just wish they showcased more Thai beer options. 


7.) The Wandering Tortouse  (Phoenix, USA - 2021)



This is the first of two Phoenix places, and I have to say Phoenix has got the beer bar concept locked down perfectly. Giant bar in the middle, tons of seating everywhere else. A giant tap list, of mostly local brews, with a brillaitn color coded system on how they write it, with all IPAs in Green, all Stouts/Porters in purple, all ales in white, all lagers in yellow. So simple, so smart, so effective. Why the Wandering Tortoise is a bit lower than its Phoenix companion is its location being a bit outside the city. It was perfectly fine and safe, and the place was great, but not super easy to get to.


6.) Falling Rock Tap House  (Denver, USA - 2019, 2020)



Falling Rock closed down during the pandemic, more due to some odd rental dispute. It is hard to imagine it is gone. The place was an institution in Denver, and had a giant tap list of nearly all Colorado based craft breweries. I went there maybe four or five times and the place was a joy each time. The only thing keeping it from being higher up is the fact that the decor was a bit blah. There was a lot of normal bar trappings (novelty signs, sports jerseys, etc.), but ti was too bright, too much like a Buffalo Willd Wings type layout. Get past that, and the place was about perfect.


5.) TBD


4.) Hop Scholar Ale House  (Spring, USA - 2018, 2019, 2020)



Most of my picks are in cities. Hop Scholar is very much not. It was in the Houston suburb that I both had a project in, and where I have a cousin that lives in. If anything there's a back road from my cousin's neighborhood that leaves directly to Hop Scholar. Anyway, as a place, it is everything. They have about 20 beers on tap. A very healthy amount of interesting stouts. It doesn't limit itself to Texas, but features enough local options to make it interesting. They also had a good food selection, with elevated pub fries and hot dogs. It was a refuge of a place on a project where I was alone for a long stretch. I don't think anyone should go out of their way to visit here, but if you ever find yourself in The Woodlands, hop on down to Hop Scholar.


3.) Toronado  (San Diego & San Francisco, USA - 2014, 2017)



I believe these two are if not owned by the same people, at least linked. The San Diego location has closed, which is a shame as to me it was slightly better than the San Francisco location. In both cases the place had a weird collection of people (headbangers, goths, everything else) along with about 25 beers on tap. Much like Wandering Tortoise I believe there's some color coding done in the way they show their beer, but I couldn't discern it. Toronado takes full advantage of the wealth of craft beer options in both cities, and were easily my favorite night options in either city.


2.) BarHop Brewco  (Toronto, Canada - 2017, 2019, 2020)



Situated in a dark, dive type bar, with a wall with a projector showing either sports or some old weird movies, and a tap list of about 30 beers, high majority being Canadian, BarHop Brewco was a fascinating place to visit. Half of the brews were sold at $5 CAD on Monday's, which is often the place I went. They had a good mix of bar and table seating. And they had great food - especially a PBJ burger that I had way too much. Everything about BarHop was great, including the crowds whether weekday or weekend. Best part was it was right in the heart of the city, but a block or so off the main drag. BarHop was close to perfect.


1.) The Theodore  (Phoenix, USA - 2021)



As perfect as BarHop was - it wasn't The Theodore perfect. I went there my first night traveling post covid, and it was great. I went there three times that trip and then went months later when I went to Phoenix for my friends wedding. I dragged our mutual friend that was also there to it late on a Friday, him being skeptical, and even he agreed it was fantastic. Giant bar, huge tap list, with that everpresent color coding that I love so much. No food, but food trucks aplently all around. Truly right in the heart of the city, serving as excellent place to either end the night or start one. The Theodore is about as perfect a place as I can picture when someone says to me what a great Beer Bar is.


12 Best Cocktail Bars I've Been To:


12.) Rabbit Hole  (Bangkok, Thailand - 2019)



They didn't have the greatest drinks, but had super creative, generally fruity ones. The decor was nice, a good mix of fanciness without any pretension. The place was well crowded with a good vibe even on what was a Sunday night. Overall The Rabbit Hole was a perfectly great place in a city with probably more reputed, but not as calm options.


11.) The Gin House  (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam - 2019, 2022)



This place may have closed down, it is hard to tell, but The Gin House was a great place in Ho Chi Minh City. My only real complaint is they get a bit too crowded, largely because they had live music Wednesday through Sunday - granted the music was generally good. The cocktails were great. Yes, most were gin based, and I was lucky enough to come when they had a resident mixologist from New Zealand of all places visiting, but they were smooth, refreshing and a great starter for a night out in Ho Chi Minh City - the place I would go to after is coming up in the next category.


10.) Cobbler (Seoul, Korea - 2022)



Cobbler was situated in a pretty seemingly quiet part of Seoul, an area not really well known for bars and the like, but deep in this residential area of narrow alleys is Cobbler. It had great decor, made to look like a clubhouse lodge, with exposed wood everywhere. The drinks were excellent, with no set menu and you just give them your preferences. The drinks were all little, interesting twists on classics, the best being a truly incredibly smoked somkey old fashioned that nonetheless as smooth as any I had. The place was well crafted, well maintained, a truly professional outfit that took pride in just serving great cocktails.


9.) Little Red Door  (Paris, France - 2018)



This place is on the Worlds Top 50 list, and it certainly hits all the right marks. No sign and behind a red door (obviously). The drinks were good, the presentation was good (I remember one drink was served in four parts in four different boxes). The decor was nice. It was all very proper, all very grand, all very Parisian. Honestly, it probably should be higher, but I just didn't go and/or try their selection enough.


8.) Meteor  (Minneapolis, USA - 2022)



It is hard to judge a place like Meteor, which has zero of the acceptable levels of pretension that come with all five above it. If anything it is set-up like a dive bar, with low lights, mostly bar seating and gourmet hot dogs rolling, but has an inventive, playful cocktail list of about 15 regulars. Their use of strange ingredients, like Sesame in a bourbon-based cocktail, or coconut milk in a gin-based one, was excellent. It isn't too expensive coming in at $12 a pop. They even have a decent draft beer list if you want to mix it up - granted that has no real impact on the ranking here.


7.) Milk Tiger  (Calgary, Canada - 2019)



Milk Tiger had the chillest vibe. It wasn't too big, but I guess also wasn't overly popular. Generally you always had a table or a spot at the bar, and the bartenders wouild regale you with stories - as were the collection of crazies that went to the place - while they whipped up excellent $10 (US) cocktails. Milk Tiger specialized in gin based cocktails, which really opened my eyes to what you can do with that liquor. It was a nightly spot to hit before going to an EDM club that will show up in that ranking.


6.) Alice (Seoul, Korean - 2022)


Alice was quasi-gimmicky, in that it was Alice in Wonderland theme - but they didn't hit you over the head with the theme, but instead hit you over the head with great cocktails. There were interesting ingredients, from utilizing soy bean paste, to beer foam and flowers, to so much more. Even the names were whimsical - like "Hippity, Hoppity" and similar things. The best part I appreciated is that none of the drinks were overly strong or bitter, just perfectly balanced, perfectly inventive.


5.) Carnaval  (Lima, Peru - 2022)



Carnaval shows up the Worlds Best 50 Bars list, and after going there I have to say it earns that spot. It gets crowded, but is in a posh area of Lima, doesn't let in more people than they have seats for, and had a great energy aroudn it. The drinks were wild, in both preparation and design - things like alcoholic cotton candy as part of a play on an old fashioned, to a frozen watermelon cocktail that is melted when you tip your glass to combine it with a mint cocktail. It was all a scene, and it was just great.


4.) #FindTheLockerRoom (Bangkok, Thailand - 2022)




Sometimes speakeasies can take the concept of just how hidden their entrance can be a bit too far. FindTheLockerRoom, down a wet and damp alley, and a row of lockers, toed the line. But the second you're greeted with an almost farcical second set of lockers, you enter a beautiful dark, roomy, bar with some incredible cocktails. The cocktails themselves are all reinventions of old classics, and were all uniformly great. The only real complain is the bar was a bit small, but I take it in a sense that fits with the speakeasy theme. Great concept, made a lot better by peerless execution.


3.) Wa-Shu  (Taipei, Taiwan - 2019)



Wa-Shu was a Japanese Cocktail Bar in the heart of Taipei that I went to twice. The bartenders were quick to tell me that they were Taiwanese, but the cocktails featured Japanese-based alcohol mostly. I had multiple Japanese Whiskey based cocktails, including my favorite being a weird one that used peanut butter seeped through a coffee filter to create a peanut butter old fashioned. It was one of the places with no supposed menu, where we tell them a certain flavor, or fruit or type of food, and they'll whip up something that makes sense based on that. It worked every time. The Wa-Shu guys knew very much what they were doing.


2.) Cause Effect  (Cape Town, South Africa - 2020, 2022)



Cause Effect shouldn't be this good. It is placed right in the heart of the most touristy place in Cape Town. Basically this is like if a bar in Times Square was an amazing place. But somehow it is. They are easily the most inventive cocktail makers. Nearly all of their 20+ standard cocktail offerigns are a production, with props and set-ups and incredible staging. My favorite was one where you are given a plate with a depressed area in the middle, which is covered by an image of a bird and you're told you need to puncture the image which then combines with the cocktail below it to create something magical. The place has to be visited to truly understand it, but it is just incredible, and I can't overstate enough how brilliantly weird it is that this place exists in the V&A Waterfront.


1.) Licorecia Limantour  (Mexico City, Mexico - 2018)



I went to Licorecia Limantour without even knowing it was seen as a world renowned cocktail bar. It is high up the Worlds Top 50 bars. Granted, they have multiple locations - I went to both the main one and one in Polanco. Both have the same menu. Unsurprisingly a lot of cocktails were tequila or mezcal based but they were all crafted brilliantly. None were to too strong, all were super smooth to put down. The place had a great vibe in the heart of the city's more trendier areas, with an open layout letting you basically step inside from teh street. Licorecia Limantour was a marvelous part of my trip to Mexico City, and has only increased its reputation since 2018.


10 Best EDM Clubs I've Been To


10.) The Loft @ Skyway Theater  (Minneapolis, USA - 2022)



On the downside, they had maybe the worst drinks of any of them on the list, which is why its 8th. Admittedly they were strong, but their "soda" component of my whiskey soda order was basically water. But at least they were cheap. Anyway, let's get to the upside of the place. It had maybe the best ventilation system of any large space club i've been to. It was so airy, despite being crowded (not overcrowded) and them going heavy on the fog machine. Also the acts the day I went were spectacular. They seem to curate well as the place isn't open every day on the weekend. Great place, just don't expect drinks.


9.) Culture Club Revelin  (Dubrovnik, Croatia - 2017)



I debated whether or not to put this on the list, mainly because it is more of just all-around club than a EDM/House club. Granted they played a lot of that music, but they also played hip-hop, and had girls dancing in cages, and was more of a pure play party spot, than anything else. Not that it's bad. It migth be the best pure club I've been to, certainly the coolest atmosphere, but to me it fits on the list. Just go there knowing what it is.


8.) Cakeshop (Seoul, Korea - 2022)



Two clubs in Seoul make the list this time, and showcase the different elements of what makes Seoul a great city with everything. Cakeshop is lighter, airier, with a great bar on the side, and great tunes. It is a bit less hectic, less "clubby" and headbanging-ey than other spots in Seoul, with the same carefree attitude that made the city work. The music at Cakeshop was just perfect to enjoy, dance to, imbibe to, right in the heart of Itaewon.


7.) Savage (Hanoi, Vietnam - 2019)



I have another Vietnam spot higher up the list. They are very similar in structure, but the main knock, the only knock, I have on Savage is that it was underground so it was a bit hot. They have one area that you enter that has more poppy house playing and a full bar, with another full bar in a shadowy back room that was hardcore EDM. Perfect mix of options, with full ability to move from one to the next. Savage also had full supply of balloons, more to come on that in a second here. Vietnam also has maybe the best bar service of any of these - in these cases the drink aspect is as much as the music, at least for the entry bar / area.


6.) Modular  (Cape Town, South Africa - 2018, 2022)



I have to say, Modular gets way more crowded than my places at ahead of it, but they did a great job of not really making it feel that way, with three full service bars in the same area. They also had a pretty great ventilation and air conditioning. It was packed though. They had no real regard for crowd control. Modular had some of the better DJ sets I've heard in terms of quality top to bottom. If even you're in Cape Town, would fully recommend going there on Thursday. It's slightly less crowded, but every bit as good.


5.) Habitat Living Sound  (Calgary, Canada - 2019)



I'm not sure if they're open or not. They definitely closed for good soon after the pandemic, but then re-opened in 2021, but seem to have closed again. Anyway, it was an experience. The only real downside is that it wasn't that big of a space, but on the plus side, they had excellent crowd control, shockingly cheap and decent drinks (i.e. if you ordered a whiskey soda you got a decent amount of whiskey), and the DJs were all pretty good. The good crowd control actually made this one of the more pleasant clubs to be in. I mourn for Canada's loss here.


4.) Club Faust (Seoul, Korea - 2022)



If I described Club Faust, a dark, large room that is open from 12am-7am, with a series of artists and DJs, you could probably well picture what Club Faust looks like. It is what it is, which is just perfect for what it is trying to be. Seoul is a lot about glitz on one end, but heart and passion on the other. No one would go to Club Faust to be "seen", mostly because you effectively literally cannot see anyone all that well. After a while your eyes do get adjusted, and your ears are great from the get go.


3.) Reset  (Cape Town, South Africa - 2020)



RIP, as this was another one that was a Covid casualty. Luckily Modular still exists, but Reset was just a better venue. With two levels and two performance spaces, a bit more light on the second floor, more heavy in the underground one. Bars had a lot of bartenders. They had great ventilation. The crowd control was decent, but just having it across two floors just made it all seem bigger and better. On the whole Reset was a fantastic place and a real loss in terms of nighttime entertainment for Cape Town.


2.) The Black Box  (Denver, USA - 2021)



There's one major question mark in ranking The Black Box this highly, and that is the fact that when I went in August 2021, they were still doing a reasonable amount of crowd limiting due to covid. There was no mask restriction, but they were operating at half capacity. That said, even if you double the crowd I don't think it would have been so much worse. The space was great - with lounge area with another DJ space when you enter, and a much larger space in the interior. Other than my place at number one this place had the best bar set-up, with at least five bartenders working, and the ability to go to the bar in the outside area at any time. The music was uniformly excellent, with generally three acts that all were great each day.


1.) The Observatory  (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam - 2019)



From the truly loungey lounge that is its main area, to a full service bar with tons of bartenders that make things quick, to the plentiful balloons, to the light, airy indoor more heavy EDM club that had great ventilation, to it also being on the fifth floor with great sightlines of Ho Chi Minh City around you, The Observatory was close to perfect. That Friday and Saturday night spent at it was about as good as it has ever been in a club experience. You truly feel like you are at a rooftop bar one second, and a hardcore EDM club the next. Just an incredible set-up, great msuic, great balloons, cheap but good drinks, and a great crowd with a good mix of locals and expats. It all added up to a perfect experience.

Wednesday, October 19, 2022

2022 NFL: Week 7 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Bryce Young Sweepstakes" Quadro

32.) Carolina Panthers  =  1-5  (103-146)
31.) Houston Texans  =  1-3-1  (86-99)
30.) Chicago Bears  =  2-4  (93-118)
29.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  2-4  (97-146)

The NFL is a bit muddled this year. Generally we'll see some stratification as the season goes on - more teams will end up 5-12 or worse and 12-5 or better, but here we are. The Panthers are dreadful, already on their second coach, and potentially facing a fire sale. Not that it would be a bad strategy. For the Texans, they're already a year into a fire-sale situation and the best outcome of their bye week is probably ridding the franchise of the weirdo known as Jack Easterby. I missed all of the Bears loss, and it seems like that was a godo strategy for my sanity. I still have the Steelers down here because they have some of the worst numbers on paper, and I have a sneaking suspicion that their win over the Bucs was more about the Bucs issues than their own. They kept converting 3rd & 10+ which is not sustainable at all.


Tier II - The "I for no reason have faith" Trio

28.) Arizona Cardinals  =  2-4  (114-142)
27.) Detroit Lions  =  1-4  (140-170)
26.) Washington Commanders  =  2-4  (102-135)

Who are the Cardinals? The team that came within a field goal of taking the Eagles to OT, or the team that looked sullen and disinterested in their loss in Seattle? They have more talent than the other two teams in this grouping, but by far the worst coaching. For the Lions, next week will be a tough game against a Cowboys team getting Dak back, but a great showcase to see if their terrible loss to the Patriots was a sign of a team that just is at too much of a talent deficit. The Commanders have a chance here to turn their season around, but Wentz's issues are looming. Getting Chase Young back will help that defense tremendously, which has started to get better production from elsewhere as well.


Tier III - The "Bad spoilers" Trio

25.) Cleveland Browns  =  2-4  (148-163)
24.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  1-4  (125-130)
23.) Denver Broncos  =  2-4  (91-99)

I don't think any of these three are good, but they have enough upside to win 6-7 games and make games more annoying than they should be. Obviously, for the Browns, I'm judging them by what they are today, not what they could be when they get that predator back. But the bloom seems to be off the Brissett rose a bit (or just Belichick knows him too well). For the Raiders, they may only have one win, but barely a negative point differential, which shows a team that has lost games by one and two points so far. I have a lot of skepticism though of how well they'll play as the season drags on for a coach like McDaniels - if this was McDaniels 1.0, it will go to shit. So this is a nice test case really. For the Broncos, if Wilson can get out of his way, this could be a team that makes a run. That defense is truly fantastic. But man is it painful watching an offense that is not even trying seemingly to play to any of Wilson's strengths.


Tier IV - The "Fun, but Ultimately Harmless" Quadro

22.) New Orleans Saints  =  2-4  (141-158)
21.) Miami Dolphins  =  3-3  (131-155)
20.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  2-4  (138-114)
19.) Seattle Seahawks  =  3-3  (146-163)

All four of these teams are fun in their own ways. The only one I think has a shot at the playoffs are the Jaguars, a function both of their division and lingering belief in their point differential. The Saints keep things interesting, but I think we are starting to see some of the drop-off associated with losing Sean Payton. For the Dolphins, they'll be getting Tua back - let's put the issues to the side of him playing at all - which should unlock the "fun" version of the team. My biggest issue right now is not really buying the coaching - they play too often less than the sum of their parts. For the Seahawks, I may be underselling them right now. Their defense played well for the first time all year. Again, hard to know if that's them or that's the Cardinals offensive issues being more pointed than before. With Geno and that offense though, they'll always keep games fun.


Tier V - The "Did We Write Them Off Too Soon" Duo

18.) New England Patriots  =  3-3  (141-113)
17.) Indianapolis Colts  =  3-2-1  (103-121)

Look, before we all go gaga on the Patriots, let's remember a few things: their three wins are still against bad teams (Pittsburgh, Detroit, Cleveland), and that lines up exactly with what they were last year when they continually blew out bad teams but struggled against any team worth a damn. They're still mostly that this year too, but it is amazing how well Belichick can coach that defense to own mediocre to bad offenses. For the Colts, they are indeed bad, but for the moment they are right there in the division somehow. Matt Ryan and the offense found some life. The OL looked better. There might be a formula here to get to 9-8 or whatever may still end up taking the AFC South. They are not a good team. Neither of these two are really, but they have a path forward. Just please find a QB solution that is not getting whatever the 2023 version of 2022 Matt Ryan is.


Tier VI - The "Ships Passing in the Night" Quinto

16.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  4-2  (141-152)
15.) Atlanta Falcons  =  3-3  (146-136)
14.) Los Angeles Rams  =  3-3  (104-126)
13.) Green Bay Packers  =  3-3  (107-123)
12.) Tennessee Titans  =  3-2  (96-118)

Part of the reason I don't get this season is this bunch of teams that are either way overperforming (Atlanta), or way underperforming (Rams, Packers), and its hard to tell what may reverse itself. The case for is as follows. For the Chargers, tough win, and they should get healthier. Herbert is still the best QB (or at least the best current QB) out of this grouping. The Falcons have shown a general competence with this run heavy approach, and their worst loss was a 6-point loss on the road without Patterson and Pitts. The Rams defense has played well throughout the year, and you would think they can better integrate Robinson as the season goes on. The Packers are basically the same, with theirs more a scheme issue than any true weakness (like the Rams OL). For the Titans, coaching is a huge plus here, as they really shouldn't be that good. We all expected them to take a step back - but maybe they have a higher floor than we initially would have thought. The cases against are also super clear. That OL of the Chargers is turning their offense into somethign resembling the 2020-21 Big Ben Steelers. The Falcons having to trust Mariota. The Rams OL is a weakness that is only getting worse, with the loss of Noteboom. The Packers offense is looking way too much like its late era McCarthy self. And the Titans, while their floor may be higher than we thought, without having adequately replaced Brown, are still a team who entered a knowing rebuild with both eyes open. Some of these will end up playoff teams, but maybe none in the exact way we expected.


Tier VII - The "Let's Talk About Them" Duo

11.) New York Jets  =  4-2  (143-128)
10.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  3-3  (121-103)

My biggest question for the Jets coming into this season was not wondering if their offense would improve with Zach Wilson. It was if Robert Saleh can do on defense what he was brought into do, and that has become a resounding yes so far. While their schedule to date has been fairly light, what they did in Green Bay was impressive, especially consistently generating quick pressure. Sauce Gardner is also a superstar in the making. For the Bucs, it's the opposite question. Yes they have injuries, but there are two concerning trends. The first is more written about that is when even their skill guys are healthy, they just don't score points. The Chiefs game is the only time they've scored more than 21 points. The second is more concerning, which is their defense is coming back to earth. They haven't as consistently generated pressure and started having more coverage issues. They get a few NFC South layups but the rest of their schedule is actually fairly tough.


Tier VIII - The "AFC North Race of 2022" Duo

9.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  3-3  (138-115)
8.) Baltimore Ravens  =  3-3  (158-141)

People can clown on the AFC North, but I think these are both two good teams that both may make the playoffs if they clean a few things up. Weirdly it is the opposite problem. The Ravens have to get better in the 4th quarter, and its mostly self inflicted wounds. Down to Down, they are a Top-5 team in the NFL. Lamar is getting unlucky with picks. Their skill guys are still a weakness. Penalties are becoming a problem on defense. But in the end I buy a team that is good three quarters. For the Bengals, its the opposite, they start too slow. The OL is still a work in progress but trending in the right direction. My biggest question for them is can they consistently generate pass rush. Their coverage is good but is being asked to hold up for extneded periods too much. Both of these are good teams that have had unfortunate moments - a more fair world has them both at 4-2.


Tier IX - The "Isn't this the NFC We All Predicted!?" Quadro

7.) San Francisco 49ers  =  3-3  (122-89)
6.) Dallas Cowboys  =  4-2  (110-98)
5.) New York Giants  =  5-1  (127-113)
4.) Minnesota Vikings  =  5-1  (139-118)

Right now there is a sense the NFC is a weak conference, but I posit it isn't all that weak, but its the teams we didn't expect that are propping it up. The 49ers loss was rough, but to me it says more we're underestimating the Falcons, and I hope they can get a bit more healthy. Their long-term outlook still looks good in my eyes. For the Cowboys, they should be getting Dak back which is huge. I believe in that defense, and CeeDee Lamb has taken a clear step up this year. The Giants are just good. They may not be great, they're not as good as that record, but that is two impressive wins in a row. They've started blocking better. Saquon is used really well, and that defense has adjusted really well to Wink's scheme. For the Vikings, I wish they would play better on a consistent basis, blow a few teams out here and there, but their offense has been very good, the coaching is good. My only real concern is their defense has been takeaway heavy - but generally that is something that in year seems consistent and just falls of year to year.


Tier X - The "Top of the Pops, Pt. 1"

3.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  4-2  (179-149)
2.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  6-0  (161-105)

The Chiefs lost, but played well. That game could have so easily gone either way. The positives are still quite positive, from a set of receivers that are getting more acclimated to the play of Mahomes, so it isn't just Kelce. The defense is still playing well and should get healthier as the season goes on. To me they're clearly the second best team in the AFC in its current state, and change like two plays and we're having a different discussion. For the Eagles, they have to figure out why they are so good in the 2nd quarter and so meh in others. It was a huge drive to go up 26-17 after letting a 20-0 lead go to 20-17. The team is great at what it does. We haven't truly seen them have to come back - their closest attempt was being down 14-0 early against Jakcsonville. I like their offense and their line play is excellent. They are so similar, in a sense, to the 2017 team, just with an even easier schedule.


Tier XI - The "Top of the Pops, Pt. 2"

1.) Buffalo Bills  =  5-1  (176-81)

The Bills are #1 in offensive and defensive DVOA. Now, granted in both they are historically low #1s this far into a season, the fact they are great at both is not lost. They are that good. Their defense is playing well even missing a few secondary players. The run game has come on the past couple weeks. The OL still can improve, and the pass rush has high highs but also goes slow for periods. We're picking nits though. They're excellent in a season with no real clear competition at the moment aside form maybe Philadelphia.


Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Byes: Buffalo Bills (5-1), Los Angeles Rams (3-3), Minnesota Vikings (5-1), Philadelphia Eagles (6-0)

Rough week for byes, with three of the 5+ win teams in the league on a bye. Makes the week as a whole look a lot rougher.

14.) Chicago Bears (2-4)  @  New England Patriots (3-3)  (MNF - ESPN)
13.) Houston Texans (1-3-1)  @  Las Vegas Raiders (1-4)  (4:05 - CBS)
12.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3)  @  Carolina Panthers (1-5)  (1:00 - FOX)
11.) Green Bay Packers (3-3)  @  Washington Commanders (2-4)  (1:00 - FOX)
10.) Detroit Lions (1-4)  @  Dallas Cowboys (4-2)  (1:00 - CBS)
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4)  @  Miami Dolphins (3-3)  (SNF - NBC)
8.) New Orleans Saints (2-4)  @  Arizona Cardinals (2-4)  (TNF - Prime)
7.) Seattle Seahawks (3-3)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)  (4:25 - FOX)
6.) Cleveland Browns (2-4)  @  Baltimore Ravens (3-3)  (1:00 - CBS)
5.) New York Giants (5-1)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4)  (1:00 - FOX)
4.) New York Jets (4-2)  @  Denver Broncos (2-4)  (4:05 - CBS)
3.) Atlanta Falcons (3-3)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)  (1:00 - FOX)
2.) Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1)  @  Tennessee Titans (3-2)  (1:00 - CBS)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs (4-2)  @  San Francisco 49ers (3-3)  (4:25 - FOX)

Honestly, this slate is just pretty bad. I don't even think its worth puns or what-not.

Friday, October 14, 2022

2022 NFL Season: Week 6 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Bryce Young Chase Begins" Quinto

32.) Carolina Panthers  =  1-4  (93-122)
31.) Houston Texans  =  1-3-1  (86-99)
30.) Washington Commanders  =  1-4  (90-128)
29.) XXXXXXXXXX
28.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  1-4  (77-128)

The Panthers firing Matt Rhule is overdue. I don't get what reason there was to even bring him back for this season. It was clear he was not going to cut it as an NFL coach. Anyway, he can go back to college and I'm sure no team will learn the lesson about college coaches generally not working. For the Texans, nice first win and Lovie has the team playing hard, but the talent is still just not there. For the Commanders, they got hte Wentz experience, losing because of him in a game the other units played well. I think Rivera doesn't make it out of the season. For the Steelers, 38-3 is about right, that defense without Watt is just toothless. Hard to make any judgements about Pickett based on that game - and probably the next one too against Tampa.


Tier II - The "We have to talk about them, Pt. 1" Uno

27.) Detroit Lions  =  1-4  (140-170)

I was worried this type of game was looming for the Lions - after losing a bunch of close games they would just fall apart. If anything, this happened to the Lions last year - who were "competitive" in a bunch of games, but ended the season with three wins and a lot of blowout losses as well. Granted, had they not gone for it on 4th down so much they probably score 9 points on field goals, so a shutout loss is a bit exaggerated - it doesn't matter much. They need to just win a game or two to mentally be right.


Tier III - The "Just Plain Weird, Pt. 1" Quatro

26.) Atlanta Falcons  =  2-3  (118-122)
25.) Seattle Seahawks  =  2-3  (127-154)
24.) Chicago Bears  =  2-3  (80-106)
23.) Denver Broncos  =  2-3  (75-80)

There's a lot of teams that have two wins that I have no real idea what to feel about them. I guess that is always the case five weeks in, but more so this year. For the Falcons, I'm impressed they gave up only 21 points, but that offense without Patterson and Pitts was a mess. For teh Seahawks, it is crazy how bad that defense got over the past couple years. I know people "figured out" their old defensive system, but I have to think it would still end with better results than what they have right now. For the Bears, at this point I don';t understand the Fields thing - when they need him to pass they are absolutlely fine. He looks good as a passer. But they just won't commit to it. Bizarre. For the Broncos, they have to hope these are just early season growing pains with Wilson, if not for this season but for the fact they have hundreds of millions committed to him at an age which if anything he'll only get worse.


Tier IV - The "Just Plain Weird, Pt. 2" Quatro

22.) Indianapolis Colts  =  2-2-1  (69-94)
21.) Arizona Cardinals  =  2-3  (105-123)
20.) New England Patriots  =  2-3  (103-98)
19.) Cleveland Browns  =  2-3  (133-125)

The Colts being a Wentz interception away from leading the AFC South is too perfect to be true. They still have a bunch of problems on offense, but the defense remains a surprisingly good unit, especially their pass rush. The Cardinals played tough in that game but it is those little things like the spike on 3rd down, the time wasting earlier in that drive. They just aren't as tight and buttoned up as you need to be to win in this league more than your talent would dictate. For the Patriots, it should't be a surprise that Belichick has the defense playing well, and Zappe is not bad enough to throw them out of games. Against better teams it won't work, but this is a recipe to still win 6-8 games. The Browns are a great study in how to win with your backup. The rest of that roster is good and they are plaiyng up their strengths - the great run game, the consistent pass rush, the secondary. They really should have won that game.


Tier V - The "This is not going as planned" Duo

18.) Los Angeles Rams  =  2-3  (80-116)
17.) New Orleans Saints  =  2-3  (115-128)


The Rams have major problems. The OL is bad, and they have no explosion outside without Woods - Robinson has been a disaster so far. The defense is playing good enough to keep them in games (defensive scores against make points allowed look a bit worse than it is) so there is still chance for that upside, but if the OL does not settle in with any consistency, they are doomed. For the Saints, the defense cratering this year is quite sad. Olave has been great, the OL is playing well, whether its Dalton or Winston, they are competent on that side of the ball, but a defense that was a Top-5-8 unit for years falling of is just sad. They have time to rectify it, but they can't play too much catch-up with the rest of the NFC.


Tier VI - The "Are any of these teams this good" Qunto

16.) Miami Dolphins  =  3-2  (115-131)
15.) Tennessee Titans  =  3-2  (96-118)
14.) New York Jets  =  3-2  (116-118)
13.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  3-2  (122-136)
12.) New York Giants  =  4-1  (103-93)

Part of the reason I'm so confused by this season is there's a lot of 2-3 teams that are better than 3-2 teams, and these five teams (well, four and the 4-1 Giants) are the biggest culprits of that. The Dolphins have two miracle wins and now are in QB hell. The Titans are probably still the most competent team in the AFC South - and I think pretty clearly still the best coached, but they've not looked dominant in any of their wins. The Jets three wins area against three backups QBs, and while Wilson looks far more settled this season, it is hard to get a read on Saleh's defense given the competition they've faced. They certainly seem better, and by personnel they should be, but again, hard to really know. For the Chargers, they just should be better in these games. They shouldn't to need a missed field goal to beat the Browns, or a late TD to stave off collapse against the Texans. For the Giants, I put them highest in this grouping because I do think there is something here. The run game is back in full, the defense is still good. Jones isn't making nearly as many mistakes, which is what plagued him in earlier years. Their schedule gets tougher, but they have a path to 10 wins here.


Tier VII - The "Are either of these teams this bad" Duo

11.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  2-3  (111-80)
10.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  2-3  (108-89)

The best 2-3 teams in my book. The Jags underlying numbers are still strong, and I'm hoping that game was the abberation - not their dominant win in LA two weeks earlier. The defense has remained strong, but Lawrence's accuracy fell off sharply, and this was in perfect conditions. I get he doesn't have the best weapons, but he looked skittish and nervous at times. For the Bengals, if they just hit the extra point in Week 1, I don't think anyone would really be worrying about them right now - as their other two losses were a field goal at the gun, and a loss to a Dallas team that is better than people realized at the time. The defense has remained solid. They do seem to be forcing the ball a bit to Chase, some of that is to keep him engaged while he gets doubled a lot. The promising sign against Baltimore was their run game finally having some life. Maybe like the Chiefs in 2021, their revamped OL just took a bit of time to get into gear.


Tier VIII - The "We have to talk about them, Pt. 2" Uno

9.) Green Bay Packers  =  3-2  (97-96)

They're 3-2, they still have a defense that is good on the field, but should be even better on paper. But that offense man - this just can't be what it is. Maybe Rodgers gets better with his receivers over the course of the season, but the larger worry is that before their renaissance in 2020 and 2021, this is what the Packers were for a good four years - Rodgers complaining, throwing short, not explosive, being overly careful to avoid interceptions. All of those things are seemingly back, and while the defense is good enough to still get them into the playoffs, this is not a good enough team right now to really compete.


Tier IX - The "Good, but should be better" Trio

8.) Minnesota Vikings  =  4-1  (115-102)
7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  3-2  (103-83)
6.) Baltimore Ravens  =  3-2  (138-117)

All three of these teams won on Sunday, and beat average to below average, but not bottom-dweller teams. That's good. What isn't is how tricky those games had to be. The Vikings and Bucs both led huge but had to (1) have a game-winning TD drive and (2) require a all-time shitty roughing the passer call to avoid giving the ball back to Atlanta with a chance for the win. For the Ravens, they had to get a field goal at the gun. I do think all three teams are good, but it would be nice for them just to put a beatdown on the board. All three had their best win, with similar scorelines, back in Week 1, and have been struggling to get at that high level since. All three likely make the playoffs, but haven't shown their true upside yet.


Tier X - The "Defense is killing 2022" Duo

5.) Dallas Cowboys  =  4-1  (93-72)
4.) San Francisco 49ers  =  3-2  (108-61)

Scoring is down in 2022 - this is not a new thought. General scoring and offense rates settle pretty quickly before generally trending down a bit late in the year (weather, injuries, etc.), so the fact scoring is already below prior years is a bit surprising. Two of the biggest benificiaries of this have been Dallas and San Francisco, who have started off well despite playing backup QBs (granted, Jimmy G is probably better than Trey Lance right now). Their defesnes have been dominant. I do worry a bit for San Francisco as they sustained some injuries - including a torn ACL for Moseley. The 49ers in their current iteration to me have a higher upside, but that may change on how Dak looks when he returns in a couple weeks. Kudos though to both teams to leaning into the dynamism of their defenses.


Tier XI - The "Favorites... for now" Trio

3.) XXXXXXXXXXX
2.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  5-0  (135-88)
1.) Buffalo Bills  =  4-1  (152-61)


Looking Ahead to Next Week's Schedule

Byes: Detroit Lions (1-4), Tennessee Titans (3-2), Las Vegas Raiders (X-X), Houston Texans (1-3-1)

14.) Washington Commanders (1-4)  @  Chicago Bears (2-3)  (TNF - Prime)
13.) New England Patriots (2-3)  @  Cleveland Browns (2-3)  (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Carolina Panthers (2-3)  @  Los Angeles Rams (2-3)  (4:05 - FOX)

I call it "Just look away" Thursday and Sunday, as 


11.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4)  (1:00 - FOX)
10.) Denver Broncos (2-3)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (3-2)  (MNF - ESPN)

I call it "Good teams can get right" Sunday and Monday, as


9.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3)  @  Indianapolis Colts (2-2-1)  (1:00 - CBS)
8.) Arizona Cardinals (2-3)  @  Seattle Seahawks (2-3)  (4:05 - FOX)
7.) San Francisco 49ers (3-2)  @ Atlanta Falcons (2-3)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "High Monday Take Variance" Sunday, as


6.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-3)  @  New Orleans Saints (2-3)  (1:00 - CBS)
5.) Minnesota Vikings (4-1)  @  Miami Dolphins (3-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Let's see if they're really good" Sunday


4.) New York Jets (3-2)  @  Green Bay Packers (3-2)  (1:00 - FOX)
3.) Baltimore Ravens (3-2)  @  New York Giants (4-1)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "New York, football town?" Sunday, as


2.) Buffalo Bills (4-1)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (X-X)  (4:25 - CBS)

I call it "Sadly, it will disappoint compared to last time" Sunday, as


1.) Dallas Cowboys (4-1)  @  Philadelphia (5-0)  (SNF - NBC)

I call it "For once, I'm happy to have the NFC East on SNF" Sunday, as 

About Me

I am a man who will go by the moniker dmstorm22, or StormyD, but not really StormyD. I'll talk about sports, mainly football, sometimes TV, sometimes other random things, sometimes even bring out some lists (a lot, lot, lot of lists). Enjoy.