NFL 2021: Week 17 Power Rankings & The Rest

Ranking the AFC Teams

Tier A-I - The "Scouting Colleges ASAP" Trio

16.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  2-13  (217-396)

15.) New York Jets  =  4-11  (276-449)
14.) Houston Texans  =  4-11  (248-401)

Honestly, I don't even care to write about these teams - save for the Texans who have looked sneakily decent with Davis Mills this season. The Jags and Jets don't look anything close to decent with their rookie QBs. For the Jets, what's a bit more surprising, and worrying frankly, is how bad their defense has been this season with Saleh at the helm. I'll give him at least a couple more years, but it's definitely not a great sign for a defense-first coach to have such a bad defense.

Tier A-II - The "Pretend Contenders" Duo

13.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  7-7-1  (301-371)
12.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  8-7  (316-387)

Somehow these two remain in clear wild card contention, if not being exactly favorites to get a spot or two. And despite me being a lapsed Raider fan even I don't want them, or their cousin in Pittsburgh with a similar -70 point differential. The Raiders have some theoretical higher upside but their plan is basically to slow the game to few possessions which they can control to somewhat mask up their terrible defense. Either way, I do hope neither of these teams make the playoffs and let better quality teams in.

Tier A-III - The "Wild Card Fodder" Duo

11.) Cleveland Browns  =  7-8  (314-329)

10.) Miami Dolphins  =  8-7  (305-315)

The Browns and Dolphins aren't bad - certainly I would favor these teams in the playoffs than Pittsburgh or Las Vegas, but still the fact they have negative point differentials this late into the seasons is a bit concerning. Not to jump too far ahead on the Browns, but their Mayfield decision they'll have to make this offseason is fascinating. It can go in many different ways. For the Dolphins, I do somewhat take back the jokes and criticisms I had of them earlier during their seven game losing streak, but their seven game win streak has come against some really soft teams and they're just now getting back to near net-0 on point differential.

Tier A-IV - The "AFC West Graveyard" Duo

9.) Denver Broncos  =  7-8  (298-260)

8.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  8-7  (408-411)

The Broncos were never really serious AFC West Contenders, even in their 3-0 start it seemed a bit fake, but I'm surprised to see the with the best points allowed and a +38 point differential. They'll have a tough time getting into the playoffs at this point, but I do think Fangio deserves another season. For the Chargers, injuries have really cost them, as it has nearly every season for the past decade. I do also think Herbert is getting too boxed in in their offense which is a problem longer term.

Tier A-V - The "Yeah, this is who we really are" Duo

7.) Baltimore Ravens  =  8-7  (355-356)
6.) New England Patriots  =  9-6  (388-260)

The Ravens are somehow still in the #7 spot and with two winnable-ish games left they could sneak into the playoffs. I do hope if that does happen that Lamar is back. The defense is a mess mostly due to an unbelievable spate of injuries, but at least with Lamar playing they have a shot. For the Patriots, it seems Mac Jones isn't  rookie Tom Brady after all. In all seriousness, they've hidden him largely all year (let's go back to the wind ame with three passes...) but in the playoffs that isn't a winning proposition, especially for a defense whose pass rush has seemed a lot less prominent the last few games.

Tier A-VI - The "Yeah! This is who we REALLY are!" Duo

5.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  9-6  (410-324)
4.) Tennessee Titans  =  10-5  (357-326)

The Bengals don't have the best resume when it comes to having them mostly beat bad teams, but what they very much do have is shown an ability to beat up on bad teams and hang with good ones - see their close loss to Green Bay. For the Titans, they were rolling having beaten the Chiefs and Rams easily before first Henry and then Jones and Brown got hurt - this is their chance to recover a bit, with having basically sewn up the division last week and having a chance to get Henry back potentially before the playoffs. They weren't 8-2 good, but they also weren't 1-3 bad.

Tier A-VII - The "Ok, please let one of these three make the Super Bowl" Trio

3.) Indianapolis Colts  =  9-6  (420-316)
2.) Buffalo Bills  =  9-6  (427-264)

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  11-4  (421-306)

It's weird putting two six-loss teams here, but the Colts have shown since their 1-4 start that they are indeed one of the best teams in teh AFC, blowing out Buffalo, beating New England, and even having their two most recent losses come in OT (Tennessee) and by a last minute TD against Tampa, a game they controlled for long stretches. They need to get healthy quick. For the Bills, they are angling at having one of the best seasons by point differential for a six-win team, and so easily could be 12-3 right now (missed QB sneak vs Tennessee, twice losing games with goal-to-go under a minute left for the win vs New England and @ Tampa). The Chiefs ae the Chiefs - that defense has become incredible since moving Jones inside, and maybe more importantly getting Melvin Ingram.

Ranking of the NFC Teams

Tier I - The "Embarrassment and Non-Embarrassment" Duo

16.) New York Giants  =  4-11  (248-365)

15.) Detroit Lions  =  2-12-1  (259-386)

The Giants are an embarrassment - that was an embarrassing loss to the Eagles but to be fair to them most of their losses this year were reasonably close. What is embarrassing is them sticking with Joe Judge (and Daniel Jones, to a lesser extent) while getting a new GM. It's just putting off the inevitable. For the Lions, that was a rough loss, but they're very much not an embarrassment despite their record. They should stick behind Dan Campbell for at least a few more years.

Tier II - The "Thankfully not playoff bound" Quinto

14.) Atlanta Falcons  =  7-8  (278-400)

13.) Washington Football Team  =  6-9  (297-407)
12.) Carolina Panthers  =  5-10  (277-345)
11.) Chicago Bears  =  5-10  (265-373)
10.) Seattle Seahawks  =  5-10  (306-307)

The AFC has three terrible teams and then everyone else has at least seven wins. The NFC.... is not like that. Granted, the Falcons somehow have seven wins, but also the second worst point differential in the conference. They just don't have a future as long as they try to wring out more with Matt Ryan. The Football Team's deep fall these last three weeks is a bit tough to watch as well - they too need a solution at QB. For the Panthers, Bears and Seahawks, all three have some good aspects but coaching questions. For the Bears, not sure how Nagy is still employed. For Carroll, I do wonder if the Seahawks do the samrt thing and say "it's time".

Tier III - The "Shame it happened this way" Uno

9.) New Orleans Saints  =  7-8  (316-305)

This should've been a wild card team. In theory I guess they still could if they get Hill back, but with Winston, this was a playoff team and who knows, may have snuck out the division. Their inability to pair their strong defenses with a good offense around late season these last five seasons now is just depressing. I geuss they'll go out and try to nab a top QB somehow under that ridiculous salary bill, but they had a shot this season for a 10 or 11 win season.

Tier IV - The "Wild Card Round Spoilers" Trio

8.) Minnesota Vikings  =  7-8  (384-372)
7.) San Francisco 49ers  =  8-7  (377-334)
6.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  8-7  (398-318)

The Vikings have an outside shot at the playoffs but will need to win in Lambeau in a game the Packers will likely need to win. Their team has so many bright spots but just zero week to week consistency. The 49ers have the opposite problem with good consistency but a low ceiling, made potentially lower with having Garoppolo out for a bit. The Eagles are basically in line for a payoff spot now, and with their point differential, they do deserve it. Hurts has calmed down and/or been given an offense to run with that fits his skills. I think he is still a bit too erratic to make too much noise in the playoffs, but they are a deserving playoff team.

Tier V - The "Freefalling" Uni

5.) Arizona Cardinals  =  10-5  (394-306)

I really don't know what to say with them. This is the second straight year the Cardinals faded but this time I don't think it shows any true issue with their creation or style. It was just three bad games, or more really two bad games as they easily could have beaten the Rams if you change a play or two. Kyler is working a bit too fast in terms of getting out of normal structure and the defense is finally sensing the loss of JJ Watt. They're still a worthy playoff group but this was a definite 'what could have been' type season.

Tier VI - The "Yeah, one of these four is making it" Quadro

4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  11-4  (442-312)

3.) Los Angeles Rams  =  11-4  (416-326)
2.) Dallas Cowboys  =  11-4  (457-307)

1.) Green Bay Packers  =  12-3  (383-324)

Assuming the Rams hold off Arizona this is a great set of four division winners. I put the Bucs last mainly for injury concerns, which really we won't know too much about the real impact of until the playoffs given they end with the Jets and that dead-man-walking Panthers team. For the Rams, I still have questions and find them the highest variance of these teams, but their high points are quite good. Dallas might be the best team running right now, with a defense that is clearly making its case as a Top-5 unit. The Packers defense is Top-10 quality which given how good Rodgers has been recently should be enough.

Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  13-4

2.) Tennessee Titans  =  11-6

3.) Buffalo Bills  =  11-6

4.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  10-7

5.) Indianapolis Colts  =  11-6

6.) New England Patriots  =  11-6

7.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  10-7

NFC

1.) Green Bay Packers  =  14-3
2.) Dallas Cowboys  =  13-4
3.) Los Angeles Rams  =  13-4
4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  13-4
5.) Arizona Cardinals  =  11-6

6.) San Francisco 49ers  =  9-8

7.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  9-8

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Detroit Lions (2-12-1)  @  Seattle Seahawks (5-10)  (4:25 - FOX)

15.) New York Giants (4-11)  @  Chicago Bears (5-10)  (1:00 - CBS)
14.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-13)  @  New England Patriots (9-6)  (1:00 - CBS)
13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-4)  @  New York Jets (4-11)  (1:00 - FOX)

12.) Carolina Panthers (5-10)  @  New Orleans Saints (7-8)  (1:00 - FOX)

11.) Houston Texans (4-11)  @  San Francisco 49ers (8-7)  (4:05 - CBS)
10.) Atlanta Falcons (7-8)  @  Buffalo Bills (9-6)  (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Philadelphia Eagles (8-7)  @  Washington Football Team (6-9)  (1:00 - FOX)

8.) Miami Dolphins (8-7)  @  Tennessee Titans (10-5)  (1:00 - CBS)

7.) Minnesota Vikings (7-8)  @  Green Bay Packers (12-3)  (SNF - NBC)
6.) Las Vegas Raiders (8-7)  @  Indianapolis Colts (9-6)  (1:00 - FOX)

5.) Cleveland Browns (7-8)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7-1)  (MNF - ESPN)
4.) Los Angeles Rams (11-4)  @  Baltimore Ravens (8-7)  (4:25 - FOX)
3.) Denver Broncos (7-8)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (8-7)  (4:05 - CBS)
2.) Kansas City Chiefs (11-4)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (9-6)  (1:00 - CBS)
1.) Arizona Cardinals (10-5)  @  Dallas Cowboys (11-4)  (4:25 - FOX)

Top 20 TV Shows of 2021, #5 - 1

5.) Narcos: Mexico (Season 3, NETFLIX)

If this is how Narcos ends - and seemingly it is - it will leave being a show that probably is very different than how people perceive it. What's remembered is the bombast of the Escobar seasons, but behind that was a brilliantly shot, well acted story across two countries. What I loved about the final season here was how realistically it showed the factures of Mexico and how pointless trying to control the drug trade was. The season does chronicle the downfall of Amado Carillo Fuentes (probably right there with Escobar and Gallardo in the time of this show) but ends with El Chapo taking his stake, the 'good cop' getting gunned down for asking one too many questions, and the DEA agent doing another buy-bust in a random town. Narcos left some of the flair but brought the heart and the passion. The show never looked better, and in my estimation was never better acted, than it was in this last season. What made it better was the time overlap with the Cali season with some great allusions if not outright references to events from that season. Narcos for me is right there behind Bojack as the best single piece of art that NETFLIX has put out.

4.) The Great (Season 2, Hulu)

At this point I'm half certain the show has very much strayed away from history in a pretty big way, but honeslty the fun is not even knowing. It took me a while to pinpoint this show but now I think I have it: The Great is what you get when you mix Veep with the King's Landing portion of Game of Thrones. The backstabbing (literally), the infighting, the random political alliances, the resounding brilliance that was everything to do with the crocodile. The Great was able to pout some drama in the comedy, really nicely playing out Peter getting back in Catherine's good graces, even through his affair with Catherine's mother. What the show really did well this year is rip through the class warfare but shie a light on just how tough breaking down those institutions would be, from the farcical  to the real. I'm so happy this bizarre satire exists and can't wait to see where it goes in Season 3 leading to at some point Peter's death. It will be a hilarious, wild, captivating ride.

3.) Succession (Season 3, HBO)

If this was based purely on the finale, with Tom turning heel with a season long arc of him getting one over and aligning wth Logan, at the same time Kendall finally comes clean and his siblings take him in, well then Succession would be #1. At its peak it was the best show on television, and honeslty even at its weakest it didn't string too far away from it. It remains a largely plot-driven show, which is ironic given how much of the plot is various incarnations of young Roys take on Logan and lose, but this was the most innovative yet. The season on the whole was still fantastic television, where episodes like Logan barely winning the shareholder vote, or either of the last two in Italy, and everything that was Kendall's depressing Birthday, were just incredibly dynamic, from the dialogue as biting as ever, to the setting and the wildness of the Roy's opulence. Succession finds itself still surging forward even if we ask ourselves more so than in past if we've seen this story before. I still don't think either Season 2 or Season 3 matched the excellence that was Season 1, especially its back half, but man is the consistency of the show three seasons in just remarkable.

2.) White Lotus (HBO)

Every now and then, I'll just hum that hauntingly rhapsodie theme song and just have a great smile on my face. White Lotus, and the one show to come, just checked every damn box for me. Well acted, well plotted, and more than anything just a brillaintly captivating tone from the jump. The show so well started out with the idea that someone died and the went so far the other direction with a brilliant treatise on classicism, patriarchy, white privelage, and so much more that by the team Armand was getting stabbed in teh finale you barely remembered that someone died in teh first place. This was one of those shows that every character, every moment was just so well written and paced. The slow breakdown of the 'perfect marriage', the even more dramatic breakdown of the reverse 'perfect marriage (powerful wife, emasculated husband). The final douse of racism that tore the two friends apart. Every damn minute of Jennifer Coolidge doing whatever the hell she was doing. It was all immaculately done. 

Apparently the show will return on a different resoirt with a different set of people. I'm hopeful there is enough to mine here that this becomes the 2020s answer to Fargo, the anthology series that worked. I do wonder though if this was just hitting the jackpot. Sydney Sweeney is just a great comedic actress as of course is Jennifer Coolidge. And Alexandra Daddario and Connie Britton are just great actresses period (yes, Daddario shined here). But I don't know if they'll find as easily anoher Murray Bartlett who was just so good as Arnaud, easily my single favorite TV character of the year, if not a long time. He himeslf should be in a Fargo season, and that might be the highest praise of all. The White Lotus was the true personification of an Ensemble Cast show, and this one was note perfect.

1.) Only Murders in the Building (Season 1, Hulu)

Look, I would watch Steve Martin and Martin Short do just about anything. So I was a perfect mark for this show. But once we got to the episode told from the perspective of deaf Teddy, I realized that you know what: this is just a damn fantastic show. It was funny, it was charming, it was meta, it was satirical, it was well acted, but it was also an incredible plot - a great whodunit told about as well as any I've seen. I honeslty never would've predicted ol' Amy Ryan's character to be the killer, and in such a dramatic way. But the show was best when it just explored these three characters and their disparate lives, Martin's old celebrity, Short trying to reconnect with his son, everything to do with whatever Gomez's character was doing. The cast of characters in the building up to and very much including Sting himself were so well written and portrayed. For so much of the show it was just incredible fun, never wanting the episode to end, with the snappy writing and great pacing. Most of all, it was just fun.

I feel like a broken record, almost every year extolling the 'entertaining' aspect of my #1 show, from Fargo way back in 2014 to Tiger King last year (Chernobyl a notable exception). Veep in 2015 was the only out and out comedy I put at #1 - and while this is I guess a comedy, what really drew me in was the story. Everything with Teddy, everything with Nathan Lane, everything with Tina Fey as the famous podcaster. To be honest the meta podcast aspect became fully secondary midway through and for good reason - this show was great because we wanted to see these three navitage that weird apartment building and find a killer. That the killer happened to be so unexpected and it leading to one of the great comedic moments form a comedic genius in Steve Martin playing an incapicitated man rolling around elevators, made it all the better. There will be a season two, with the series ending with Mabel standing over a dead body. There are a lot of murders in that buildng, and a lot of great moments to come in the best show of 2021.

Top 20 TV Shows of 2020, #10 - 6

10.) Hacks (Season 1, HBO Max)

Jean Smart is just brilliant. She'll forever be in my good graces for her role in Fargo Season 2 and then Watchmen. One of her other roles is still to come, but in this she just owned that role of being an aging comedian just perfectly. Smart showed impressive comedic chops throughout, but more than that she showed an acidic wit that was just so perfect for the character she was portraying. The story of an aging comedian trying to hang on to relevant was better told from the angle of the comedian and also the young upstart who was questioning if that earlier success mattered. The show around Smart was quite good, and Hannah Einbender is a future star (was cool to realize she is Laraine Newman's daughter!) but this was a role Jean Smart was born to play. Just it should be said a ton of roles fit that description, from Mafia boss, to acerbic grandmother - but aging comedian absolutely is on that list now.

9.) Maid (NETFLIX)

I write this in groups of five, and what I'm quicky realizing with this set of five is how innately sad and depressing some of these shows are. Maid takes the cake for depressing storyline, with a woman with child navigating the awful social safety net in America while fighting for custody against her emotionally abusive partner, and doing a lot of cleaning of houses. I mean a lot. But behind this veneer of depressing tapestry is a truly beautiful show. Margaret Qualley is brilliant as the titular character, bringing so much to every scene. The baby is one of the best baby actors I've ever seen - unendingly cute. Even if the secondary characters are done well - including Andie McDowell as the mom. The show is unendingly real, about the difficulties of women in distress, of trying to make it on your own. The one gimmick they had of the running bank balance was both on the nose but a really stark visualization of just how tough this is. Like a few shows in this group of five, realness is beautiful too.

8.) Pose (Season 3, FX)

Honestly, Pose should be considered Ryan Murphy's masterpiece (well Pose, or People vs, OJ). He took a truly horrific era for a marginalized community, presented it with realness, pathos and empathy throughout and turned out a truly tremendous show that ended with more optimism than usual. Now the 'than usual' is improtant, because the show was still largely depressig, with AIDS becoming a more and more real concern of the LGBTQ community in what was now the 90s, but the family atmosphere that started from the show's inception carried through still. It's always hard to judge final seasons that are very clearly known to be final seasons, because it becomes just a endless stream of goodbyes and sendoffs and big moments, but Pose kept it lowkey at times too with small wins. Ultimately, I am more than happy I watched this incredible show to learn more about this undeserved culture, and see so many incredible performances play out with such emotional resonance. For that, thank you Ryan Murphy.

7.) It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia (Season 15, FX)

To some degree, getting just eight episodes was a bit sad, but man they packed so much incredibleness in those eight episodes. The four parter in Ireland was a masterpiece mostly for seeing Charlie immediately almost awaken from a 15-year slumber when meeting his long lost dad. From Mac's coming out two seasons ago to this, Sunny continues to do somber and real moments so well. It also does farce - everything about the Monkey beer, and Mac putting 'purple' as the place he wants to go and seeing Dennis go to 10 was just beautiful, as was the period episode in the 90s with Dennis having to watch Frank bang a whore to learn about the 'business'. Honestly, the last few episodes in Ireland, from everything around Mac trying to find god and Dennis and Frank's inability to have a father son moment was all just a great set-up for Charlie's amazing realization that not having a dad scared him. The show is a comedy, and its comedy is golden, but seeing Charlie scream in the rain "I needed you to pick me up" was far more heartbreaking and dramatic a moment than Sunny has any right of being.

6.) Mare of Easttown (HBO)

It's been a while since HBO did a nice old who-dun-it miniseries that has, I'm hoping, no real chance of coming back. In past year's we had The Night Of and further back True Detective, but Mare of Easttown might have been the best because I never really cared who killed and/or kidnapped girls (funnily I had a friend who called the final killer like a quarter way through the season...). No, I just wanted to live withi the world of Easttown. Kate Winslet was great, Jean Smart even better but even the kids, the bit characters, the series of random perfectly cast northeastern Pennsylvanians with such great accent. The show so well peeled back the layers on Mare's upbringing and how it effects everything she does. She was a great character in a show of them, never open or closed enough to fail. The show was fantastic as a miniseries, the type of show HBO is just so good at pulling off.

NFL 2021: Week 16 Power Rankings & The Rest

Before we get to it, you know what, I'm now all for the 17-game, 18-week season. I still would've preferred a 16-game, 18-week season with two byes, but having that extra week of games is awesome. It won't be when records get shattered that otherwise wouldn't, but it will in the sense that right now I would already be a bit sad that the regular season is nearly over, especially with the Week 16-17 being interspersed around Christmas, but instead, we're not done baby!

Ranking the AFC Teams

Tier I - The "Pain Station" Trio

16.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  2-12  (196-370)

15.) Houston Texans  =  3-11  (207-372)
14.) New York Jets  =  3-11  (250-428)

I don't think I've ever seen a conference with these collection of records where you have three truly decrepit teams, and then everyone else will win seven or more games. Because of our 17-game schedule likely one or two of the seven loss teams will end with a 7-10 record, but if not for that we may have had only three 10-loss teams in the conference. The less said about these teams the better. The Jags have reason for hope because Urban is gone. The Texans have reason for hope because, well, I don't know to be honest.... The Jets, I guess Wilson was better than usual on Sunday, but them too I don't know. Forward looking the Jags have hte brightest future, but for 2021 purposes, they're the worst.

Tier II - The "Let's just hope they go away" Trio

13.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  7-7  (299-374)

12.) Cleveland Browns  =  7-7  (292-305)

11.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  7-6-1  (291-335)

So there's this giant jogjam of seven and eight win teams, of which four will reach the playoffs. I know for all of our luck at least one of these three will make it in, but I really hope none do. For the Raiders, I feel bad given their year losing Gruden, then Ruggs (both deservedly so), but aside from Carr to Jones, there's really little much else to work with. The Browns are just in Covid hell, and maybe Mayfield comes back and leads a three win resurgence, but again this is unlikely. Their secondary has fallen apart, even with most of them healthy. The Steelers won't die, but you have to really hope it they just do.

Tier III - The "Let's hope they don't go away" Duo

10.) Miami Dolphins  =  7-7  (285-312)
9.) Denver Broncos  =  7-7  (285-243)

I'm pretty sure for most of the first part of the season I had the Dolphins in that group up with the Jets and Jags and co, if not towards the bottom of that group given their awful point differential. Well, six wins later, admittedly most against awful QBs, the Dolphins have almost brought their point differential to zero. The Dolphins with Tua are reliably a team that will score 20 points, as are Denver. Both teams are probably wild card fodder, but deserve to be here given their strength on defense and resiliency. Doubt either makes it given schedules, but do keep your eye on Miami @ New England as the last agme for them.

Tier IV - The "Probably better (injury) luck next year" Duo

8.) Baltimore Ravens  =  8-6  (334-315)

7.) Tennessee Titans  =  9-5  (337-309)

Likely neither will go too far, even if both may well make the playoffs. The Ravens could be 10-4 right now if two gutsy two point conversions go their way, but it just isn't their year. The combination of so many guys on IR, Lamar now missing games, a few covid absences, and so much else has conspired to just knock them off. With Tennessee, it is a bit of the same, with their 8-2 start looking so far ago now with Henry, Brown and Jones all out at the same time. They probably need just one win to win the division but they are a very likely wild card exitee.

Tier V - The "2027 AFC Championship Game Preview" Duo

6.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  8-6  (369-303)

5.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  8-6  (379-370)

I realize these two played a few weeks back and it wasn't all that competitive, but I am really into the idea of Herbert vs. Burrow as a nice little rivalry. Many moons ago when I started this blog, Palmer vs. Rivers was a fun game a handful of times, and this is the same just 12 years later. Both QBs have had great second seasons - even if Burrow has done it more quietly. Both have some talent around them, but have a good enough ability to keep their teams relevant for many years to come. Their play this year can get them to the playoffs, but wake me up in three years time when they're both hopefully ruining everyone's shit.

Tier VI - The "Real Contenders, Pt. 1" Trio

4.) New England Patriots  =  9-5  (367-227)
3.) Indianapolis Colts  =  8-6  (398-300)
2.) Buffalo Bills  =  8-6  (394-293)

The Patriots finally looked mortal, mostly because a team was able to take advantage of their surprisingly porous run defense that had cost them during their 2-4 start. Also Mac Jones had to go to his second read far more than usual, which had him struggle far more than usual. The defense remains great. For the Colts, they have such a high ceiling, but really need their WRs to remain healthy to give the offense anything close to that ceiling. The Bulls have the highest ceiling, and are back in control of their destiny - win out and the division is still theirs. I still think they are the second best team in the conference, and have the only team whose peak can match the team that, somehow, found themselves free and clear as the #1 seed....

Tier V - The "Who are we kidding, the only contender" Uno

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  10-4  (385-296)

... and here we are. Still, that win over the Chargers was huge. They had won six straight but most were unimpressive aside from two blowouts of the Raiders. They won this in OT, but their offense cruised against a non-Raiders defense, and their own defense is just so solid now, even without Chris Jones playing. He should be back, though they have their own Covid concerns right now. I still feel the Chiefs are quite clearly back to being the best team in the AFC now.

Ranking the NFC Teams

Tier I - The "Pain Station, NFC" Duo

16.) Chicago Bears  =  4-10  (240-349)

15.) New York Giants  =  4-10  (238-331)

We'll get to the worst team by record in a minute - because these two are teh worst. Would absolutely pick the Lions over either. The Bears just need to fire Nagy already, especially with the new rule where teams that fire coaches midseason get a head start on interviews. Much like the Jags getting rid of Meyer, the Bears moving on from Nagy can only help Fields. For the Giants, at this point we've almost put Jones to pasture. I still like some elements of the Giants, particularly their always decent defense, but the offense is broken, mostly due to a never ending string of skill position injuries that either keeps players out year on year, or whatever happened to Saquon.

Tier II - The "Pour one out for Danny C" Uno

14.) Detroit Lions  =  2-11-1  (243-366)

I don't know if any coach has ever gotten the priase for coaching a four or less win team than Dan Campbell is going to get. The Lions were rolled a few times, but also came within ridiculous field goals (remember Tucker's 66-yarder?) from winning a few more games. Their point differential is not good, but also better than a normal two-win team. They play really hard for Campbell, and I hope they actually give him the time to build something in Detroit. I do wonder whether they have to quickly make a move to move on from Goff.

Tier III - The "Tom Brady really just gets it all" Duo

13.) Atlanta Falcons  =  6-8  (258-384)
12.) Carolina Panthers  =  5-9  (271-313)

These teams are just unbearable at times. The Cam Newton return has been as ugly as feared, and while that defense is still decent it can't last playing 40 minutes a game. Without McCaffrey the offense has no ability to keep the bal. The Falcons have no real ability in any way, their point differential laughable for a team that has six wins. They're a clear contender to do even worse next year, and you wonder if they just need to turn the page on the Matt Ryan era at this point.

Tier IV - The "Just not good enough" Duo

11.) Seattle Seahawks  =  5-9  (282-282)
10.) Washington Football Team  =  6-8  (283-351)

Two playoff teams last year that are absolutely not making it back, and just chuck it down to not being good enough. For the Seahawks, this year is somewhat mirroring a similar season by the Packers in 2018, before they finally got rid of Mike McCarthy and it rejuvenated the franchise. They need something similar with Pete Carroll - the team by point differential is still better than a 5-9 team. For the WFT, at this point with Garrett Gilbert they just don't have the horses. I still like what Ron Rivera is building but they just need a plan at QB that isnt' based on blind hope.

Tier V - The "Wild Card Really Hopefuls"

9.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  7-7  (364-308)
8.) New Orleans Saints  =  7-7  (313-285)

I don't think either team makes it, and I don't think I want them in. The Eagles have had good moments but their struggle to put away Gilbert was a bit of a sign. To me, there are a lot of similarities here between this team and the 2016 Eagles in Wentz's first year that went 7-9 with a lot better underlying numbers. For the Saints, it pains me to think where they would have been had Jameis not torn his ACL - certainly not on the outside of the playoff bubble given how good the defense played all year. What Dennis Allen has been able to do these past three years in New Orleans is nothing short of amazing, even with the good personnel they have from years of strong drafting.

Tier VI - The "Wild Card Hopefuls" Duo

7.) Minnesota Vikings  =  7-7  (361-342)
6.) San Francisco 49ers  =  8-6  (360-314)

I would call these teams low floor, low ceiling, except I think both are quietly pretty high-variance. The Vikings defense alternates between looking like their great unit from 2017 or 2019 to a terrible one. Cousins can never string more than two good games in a row, and they really need Thielen back. For the 49ers, their just a solid team, and I do think fits the low floor, low ceiling quite aptly. I do wonder if they could beat any of the five ahead of them in a road playoff game, but I don't see them getting blown out. Seeing Nick Bosa back and healthy has been great this year. But better than that has been their OL continuing its dominance despite some injury issues.

Tier VII - The "NFC Contenders, Pt. 1" Trio

5.) Los Angeles Rams  =  10-4  (386-303)

4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  10-4  (410-306)

3.) Arizona Cardinals  =  10-4  (378-384)

I honestly forgot the Rams are just a four loss team, the losses to the 49ers and Titans seeming like ages ago. I still worry about any team that is able to hold Kupp and how the Rams can react, but their tp players are all still playing great. For the Bucs, we can look past that game, just like last year's 38-3 loss to the Saints at home proved to be fairly meaningless, but what we can't look back is losing Godwin, and seemingly Fournette as well, for the year. Getting Brown back should help, but if Evans doesn't return 100% from that hamstring this offense suddenly looks a lot more mortal, even against teams that aren't the Saints. Speaking of a team that looks a lot more mortal... I'm hoping we can chalk that loss to Detroit as a "well, everyone has one of those..." type games, but I worry abotu the offense getting too off cycle too much and over-relying on Kyler magic.

Tier VIII - The "Yeah, I'm ok with this as the NFC Title Game" Duo

2.) Dallas Cowboys  =  10-4  (401-293)

1.) Green Bay Packers  =  11-3  (359-302)

A potential Cowboys @ Packers title game would be simultaneously nauseating and incredible. Yes, the hagiography would be ridiculous, but the potential matchup of two well balanced teams, seeing Rodgers against what has quietly been the league's best defense for a while now, all in cold, filled, Lambeau would be amazing. Of course, we never get amazing and are probably as likely to get some wild card fodder heading to Tampa or something ot he sort, but enjoy dreaming about this matchup for now if you want. THe Cowboys offense should get better as the weapons continue to return, but to reach their full potential they just need to go full bore with Pollard. For the Packers, getting healthy including finally getting Zadarius Smith and David Bakhtiari, would be such a great late season boost as well.

Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  13-4

2.) Indianapolis Colts  =  11-6 (shocked myself)

3.) Buffalo Bills  =  11-6

4.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  10-7

5.) New England Patriots  =  11-6

6.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  11-6

7.) Tennessee Titans  =  10-7

NFC

1.) Green Bay Packers  =  14-3

2.) Los Angeles Rams  =  13-4

3.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  13-4

4.) Dallas Cowboys  =  12-5

5.) Arizona Cardinals  =  12-5

6.) San Francisco 49ers  =  10-7

7.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  9-8

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11)  @  New York Jets (3-10)  (1:00 - CBS)

15.) Detroit Lions (2-11-1)  @  Atlanta Falcons (6-8)  (1:00 - FOX)

14.) Chicago Bears (4-10)  @  Seattle Seahawks (5-9)  (4:05 - FOX)

13.) New York Giants (4-10)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (7-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

12.) Washington Football Team (6-8)  @  Dallas Cowboys (10-4)  (SNF - NBC)
11.) Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)  @  Houston Texans (3-11)  (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-4)  @  Carolina Panthers (5-9)  (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Denver Broncos (7-7)  @  Las Vegas Raiders (7-7)  (4:25 - CBS)

8.) Miami Dolphins (7-7)  @  New Orleans Saints (7-7)  (MNF - ESPN)

7.) Cleveland Browns (7-7)  @  Green Bay Packers (11-3)  (Sat - NFLN)
6.) Los Angeles Rams (10-4)  @  Minnesota Vikings (7-7)  (1:00 - FOX)
5.) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (10-4)  (4:25 - CBS)
4.) San Francisco 49ers (8-6)  @  Tennessee Titans (9-5)  (TNF - NFLN)

3.) Indianapolis Colts (8-6)  @  Arizona Cardinals (10-4)  (Sat - NFLN)
2.) Baltimore Ravens (8-6)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)  (1:00 - CBS)

1.) Buffalo Bills (8-6)  @  New England Patriots (9-5)  (1:00 - CBS)

The Nostalgia Diaries, Pt. 28: The 2008 NFL Season

Maybe it was a product of just having more free time, or maybe a product of discovering Football Outsiders and 18to88.com (my two All-Time Go-To football sites), or maybe it was not having Tom Brady around, but the 2008 NFL Season was my favorite individual regular season in my time watching football, and I could make the argument that it was one of the most exciting, enticing and interesting seasons of my lifetime. It was a great year with a brilliant mix of great offense, great run games, great defenses and great stories. It was a year that changed football, a year with no great team after a season defined by great ones ('07 Patriots, Cowboys, Colts). It was a year that had the most uninteresting chase for perfection in the '08 Titans after the ultimate one. It was a year with ultimately a bad postseason (redeemed by a Great Super Bowl), but a great regular season.

The season would be invariable changed by what happened that July and then an event that took place at 1:20 PM the first Sunday of the season. The second event was Tom Brady tearing his ACL, ending the Patriots season. The Patriots themselves rebounded well under Matt Cassel and finished 11-5, but didn't make the playoffs (we will get to the team that did in a while). Many people complained when an 11-5 team was left out, but it was the Patriots fault for losing each game they played against AFC Playoff Competitors. The other event was the first true Brett Favre saga. Favre retired in a tearful, beautiful press conference in March, saying that he basically was burnt out. The rumblings then started in June, rumblings that Favre wanted back in. Then became the 2nd biggest QB decision of the past 10 years (the bigger one is the one Jim Irsay made last March), and Ted Thompson picked to keep Aaron Rogers, and let Favre go, with the one condition that he couldn't go to Minnesota. Favre eventually picked the New York Jets, setting in place the first major change for the 2008 season.

The 2008 season started in earnest in Week 3 & 4, with two games that would define the season. The first was in Foxboro, as the 2-0 Patriots took on the 0-2 Miami Dolphins. The Patriots, winners of 21 straight regular season games, took on the Dolphins fresh off a 1-15 season. The Dolphins, with nothing to lose, decided to open up their playbook, and release the 'WildCat' to the world. With this direct-snap offense, the Dolphins changed the fortunes of their team, but also started the Greatest one-season football trend that I have ever seen. In that game, the Dolphins scored four TDs of WildCat plays in a 38-13 beatdown of New England. By the time the season was done, the WildCat would help spur the Dolphins to an 11-5 season, and permeate its way all across the league. Almost every team without a true star QB had some variation of the package (my favorite was a WildCat pitch to Troy Smith, the backup QB for the Ravens, where he thew a deep bomb to Joe Flacco). No one ran it like the Dolphins though. No one practiced it as much, had as many variations, used it so much and so effectively. The Wildcat was the Dolphins. It made Ronnie Brown less of a bust, it made Chad Pennington into a star QB for a season, and it made the Dolphins make the playoffs a year after going 1-15.

One week and seven hours later, the 2-0 Ravens took on the 2-1 Steelers in Heinz Field. The Ravens were two games into the Flacco-Harbaugh era, and were a surprise 2-0 after firing Brian Billick in the offseason. The Steelers were among the best teams in the league, one of the teams that took the place of the Patriots when Brady went down. They played a close, tight game that night. The Ravens jumped out to a 13-3 lead. The Steelers answered withT two quick TDs to go up 17-13. The Ravens tied it at 20 late, and the Steelers finished the game winning with an OT Field Goal. In the game, Joe Flacco threw for 191 yards. Roethlisberger threw for 192. Neither team gained 250 yards on offense. With Brady out, the Patriots-Colts rivalry stopped for a year, and little did we know that a stronger, more bloody and hate-filled rivalry would take its place that night. The Steelers-Ravens rivalry started in earnest that night, and it hasn't stopped since.

The 2008 Season was also defined by the differences between all the top teams. 2007 was defined by pass-first teams dominating. All the teams that went 13-3 or better (Pats, Colts, Cowboys, Packers), had crazy efficient passing games. In 2008, teams were defined by so many different strengths. The only team to go better than 12-4 was the Tennessee Titans, who were built off a great run game (LenDale White and rookie Chris Johnson), and a stout defense. The other bye teams (Giants, Panthers, Steelers) were all built off running the ball or defense. The Giants ran the ball so well with their Earth, Wind and Fire attack (Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw), and it was keyed by their dominant o-line. The Panthers ran it even better, as DeAngelo Williams finished the season with a dominant run. The Steelers had the best defense in the NFL in any measureable way. They had the league's best pass defense, 2nd best rush defense, best defense in yards allowed and best defense in points allowed. They had players playing great at every level, and full health for that season. They were absolutely dominant, not allowing a single 300 yard passer or 100 yard rusher the entire season. Only one team even gained 300 yards on them, and that was the 13-3 Titans, and they only got 322. Remember, in this same season the first assault at Marino's record was made as Drew Brees ended up 36 yards short. This wasn't some bygone era of running and defense. The Steelers dominated essentially the same NFL that exists now. And it was beautiful.

The '08 Season was, as many seasons are, partly defined by the events of the NFC East. Every year people expound about it being the best division, the toughest division. That probably wasn't true in 2008, but it definitely was the most dramatic, arcane and interesting. It was a 17-week jaunt that included a surprising start by Washinton, an epic collapse by the Cowboys, a dramatic comeback by the Eagles, and a dominant Giants team. The Giants were not very interesting for much of the season, because their dominance that followed their win in Super Bowl XLII was just that. The Giants started the season 11-1 off of an o-line playing about as well as any o-line ever. Eli Manning was careful, limiting his interceptions better than ever before. The Giants were a machine, retroactively making the events in Glendale seem less and less like a fluke. And then, on November 28th, Plaxico Burress decided to bring a handgun with him to a nightclub and shot himself.

It ended Burress' Giants career, but also sidetracked the NFL's best team in 2008 to that point in the season. The Giants were 10-1, and would win their next game, but they then dropped two games straight, scoring just 14 points in both, to the Eagles and Cowboys. They did man up and win a 'winner-takes-#1-Seed" game against the Panthers in Week 16, a dramatic 31-28 win in OT, and one of the best games of the year, and then nearly beat the playoff-bound Vikings with their 'B-Team' in Week 17, but the Giants were nowhere near as complete without Burress. In the end, the lost to another NFC East team, one that had it a little more interesting.

The Eagles and Cowboys traded blows all season long. It started in Week 2, when the Cowboys beat the Eagles 41-37 in a wild game, most remembered for DeSean Jackson dropping the ball early before crossing the goal-line. The Cowboys got off to a fast start, until Tony Romo got injured and missed three games, where the Cowboys went 1-2. He came back and the Cowboys continued their good play, and moved to 8-4 following their Thanksgiving win over the Seahawks. The Eagles won on Thanksgiving as well, blasting the eventual NFC Champion Cardinals 48-21 in the night game. It was a marked win because it was the game that followed one of the lowest moments in the Andy Reid era (until this year, that is), when Donovan McNabb was benched in an awful 36-7 loss to the Ravens. That loss to Baltimore followed a 13-13 tie with the Bengals, where McNabb admitted not knowing that NFL games could end in a tie. It was that type of year for the Eagles, but after all that they weren't that far away.

The Cowboys, after being 8-4, started an epic tailspin. First up, they blew a 13-3 lead in the 4th Quarter to the Steelers in Pittsburgh. It was a memorable game for me. I can almost remember everything about it, like Troy Polamalu's interception on the very first drive, both QBs being pounded all day long by good defenses, and that comeback by Pittsburgh. They scored a TD to tie it, then DeShea Townsend picked off Romo to end it. The Cowboys rebounded with a win over the Giants the next week to stay ahead of Philly. Then came a crazy last two weeks. First, on Saturday Night, the Cowboys hosted the Ravens in the final game ever at Texas Stadium. NFL Network pulled out all the stops, giving the audience the mash crew of Bob Papa, Deion Sanders and Marshall Faulk. The game was kind of close, but the Ravens just made every big play. First, Ed Reed picked off two ducks by Romo. Then, after the Cowboys closed it to 19-17 with over 4 minutes to go, Willis McGahee had a 77 yard TD run. The Cowboys answered with another TD, and then on the first play of the last drive, LeRon McClain had an 82 yard TD run. I can still remember Deion Sanders "You've Got To Be KIDDING ME!!!" call when McClain burst free. The Cowboys closed out Texas Stadium with an awful 33-24 loss. The Cowboys were still in the driver's seat, though, after the Eagles lost 10-3 to Washington, making the Week 17 game against Philly almost meaningless for Philly. But, the Texans upset the 9-6 Bears, and the Raiders upset the 9-6 Buccaneers, making the 9-6 Cowboys @ the 8-6-1 Eagles a de-facto playoff game. The winner won the #6 seed (and the right to play Tarvaris Jackson).

It was one of two 'win-and-you're-in' Week 17 games, as the Sunday Night game was the 8-7 Broncos hosting the 7-8 Chargers (who were 4-8 at one point, while the Broncos were7-4), and neither was close. The Chargers smashed the Broncos 52-25. The Eagles win was a little more interesting. I was sitting in a hotel room in Orlando while my family was out shopping, and with the fireworks from that game, it may well have been in Disneyworld. The Eagles won 44-6. That is no misprint. 44-6. They were only up 17-3, when Tony Romo threw an interception that the Eagles converted into a TD. Then, on the kickoff, up 24-3 right before half, PacMan Jones fumbled, and the Eagles added a 50-yard Field Goal. Then came the real haymaker, as the Eagles returned back-to-back Romo sack-fumbles for TDs of 73 and 96 yards to make it 41-3 and essentially end the game. It was probably the most schaudenfreudianly great game in Cowboys history, and the most satisfying regular season game of Andy Reid or Donovan McNabb's life. It was a great, crazy way to end what was a crazy year in the NFC East.

The '08 Season was also marked by some great, incredible meaningful but not always statistically brilliant, QB play. It was a weird season where the best QBs statistically (Philip Rivers, Drew Brees and Kurt Warner) played for teams that went 8-8, 8-8 and 9-7. No, the 2008 season's QBs that got the most attention weren't the best statistically, but they were just the most interesting. 2008 started the trend of starting rookie QBs immediately. Until 2008, it still was normal for rookies to sit on the bench the first year. Even the high-water mark for rookie QBs, Ben Roethlisberger, sat on the bench until Tommy Maddox got hurt. In 2008, the Atlanta Falcons, fresh off the end of the Michael Vick era, selected Matt Ryan with the 3rd pick in the draft and started him from Day 1. The Baltimore Ravens selected Joe Flacco later in the 1st round, and started him from Day 1. Both went 11-5. Both have been consistently good in their careers, but they were special as rookies.

Joe Flacco had less to do, as he had the help of a special defense. The Ravens were pretty much 2nd in all the stats on defense the Steelers were 1st in. They had their own once-in-a-generation player playing at his best, as Ed Reed had maybe his best season. It started slow, but Reed was dominant over the 2nd half of the season. Over the last 8 games, Reed had 8 interceptions, returning one for a record 109 yard TD against the Eagles. He also forced and recovered a fumble for a TD. In my mind, Ed Reed, and that Ravens team, as well as the Steelers and Titans, in the 2008 season made me love defense and what it was capable of doing. Seeing the 2008 Ravens defense play with that unending swagger, seeing the likes of Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Bart Scott, Haloti Ngata, and the Boss himself Ed Reed play at their best. That's why I love defense. The Ravens were back, and it had little to do with Joe Flacco that year.

Matt Ryan was different. He inherited a 4-12 team that lost its QB one year, and lost its coach, Bobby Petrino, the next. The notoriously flaky Atlanta fans were pretty much out on the team coming into the 2008 season, and even with a couple of shrewd moves like hiring Thomas Dimitroff, Mike Smith, bringing in Michael Turner, no one expected anything from the Falcons. Then, Matt Ryan, the #3 pick of the draft, threw a TD on his first professional pass, and it was off. The Falcons were never dominant, but with a smart, safe QB and a bruising runner (372 carries for Michael Turner), the Falcons went 11-5 and made it back to the playoffs. It was a brilliant resurrection of a franchise that was 20 months from having their QB put in jail for dog-fighting, and then 10 months from having their head coach snake out in the night to Arkansas. Matt Ryan and Mike Smith resurrected that franchise, and it hasn't stopped since.

The final QB of 2008 was Peyton Manning, is it always will and should be. Peyton Manning entered the season with an inflamed bursa sac that required immediate, emergency surgery in early August. It was the first time Peyton Manning had any sort of medical concern (which is ironic, given the events of three years later), and he missed the entirety of the preseason. Peyton returned for the opener, which coupled as the opening of Lucas Oil Stadium, and looked exceedingly rusty in a sullen 29-13 loss to the Bears. He followed that up with an incredible comeback win in Minnesota, bringing the Colts back from 15-0 down in the 3rd to win 18-15, despite getting no protection or running game. That was just a brief respite from a stumbling half-season of football, as the Colts began the season 3-4, with back-to-back road losses to Green Bay and Tennessee to end the streak. They sat out of the playoff picture, two games behind New England, who was their next opponent, despite New England not having Tom Brady.

Then came one of the more important Colts-Patriots games in their run, as the Colts barely beat a Brady-less Pats team, winning 18-15. That was the first act in an incredible 2nd half performance for Manning, and one of the great rides I've ever been on as a sports fan. Putting aside Manning's shaky start, that was not a great Colts team. Like every other Colts team since the beginning of time, the Colts were injured. The played games without either starting corner and Bob Sanders. They had Dallas Clark go out for some time, and Joseph Addai get hurt. They had Marvin Harrison playing as a shell of himself. They had nothing but Manning, and a crafty pass defense that allowed just 6 TDs all year long (which is kind of absurd). And that Patriots win was the catalyst to the most memorable Colts regular season run of my life.

A little backstory was that I made a bet with my friend Albert when the Colts were 3-4 that they would go at least 11-5. I had one game to play with. The Colts made that uneccessary, going from 3-4 to 12-4, winning nine straight and other than a couple easy breathers (35-3 over Cincinnati, 23-0 over the Titans in a double-rest game), they were all close. Right after New England was a trip to play the Steelers in Heinz Field. It may be my favorite non-Patriots related Colts regular season win I have seen, as a Colts team without their starting corners or Bob Sanders or Dallas Clark went into Pittsburgh and beat the eventual Champs, coming back from 17-7 down in the process. Manning barely completed half his passes, but threw for 3 TDs and no picks, including a game-winning 17-yard swing pass right over Troy Polamalu's head into Dominic Rhodes' lap. It was beautiful, as was Eric Foster's goal-line stop on 4th down when the Colts were tied at 17. It was win #2. That was followed two weeks later by a 23-20 win in San Diego (yeah, the Colts could beat the Chargers once), with Vinatieri nailing a 50-yarder to do it. Then came Manning's MVP clincher, with a flawless performance to beat the Jaguars to nail down a playoff spot. It wasn't Manning's best football, but it was close. In those last 9 games, Manning went 209/290 (72.1%), for 2,248 yards (7.8 y/a), with 17 TDs and 3 INTs, for a 109.7 passer rating. The Colts went 9-0 in those games. Manning deservedly won his 3rd MVP in a season where he defined what valuable meant. His play made that Colts team go from 3-4 to 12-4.

It might be that Manning factor that made me love 2008 that much, but I think it was more about the fact that the 2008 season was a season without the bullshit that football talk is built off of now. In 2008, the top QBs didn't have great win-loss seasons, so we weren't barraged by the 'QB X is the greatest' stuff we routinely get now. Back then, there were great running games, great defenses. In the regular season, there were many ways to win. There was new blood, in Atlanta, and Baltimore, and Arizona of all places. 2007 was defined by the best blue blood teams playing extremely well for the whole season, with New England going 16-0, and Indianapolis, Dallas and Green Bay not far behind. 2007 was built for the millionaires, while 2008 was for the everyman. It was a season where Jake Delhomme could QB a 12-4 team, where Chad Pennington was the runner-up for MVP, where Kerry Collins QBed the only team that won more than 12 games.

In Week 15, the Steelers and Ravens met in M&T Bank Stadium. The Steelers were 10-3, the Ravens were 9-4. The winner would take over control of the AFC North. The news that the Titans lost to make them 12-2 right before the game started was huge, as the Steelers knew if they beat Baltimore, they could then beat the Titans to steal the #1 seed. Everything was on the line for the NFL's best rivalry, and the game was brilliant. Neither offense did anything. Both defenses dominated. Flacco was picked off twice. Roethlisberger was sacked twice, once by Ray Lewis and once by Ed Reed. It was a field-goal filled game, and late in the 4th quarter, the Baltimore fans were going insane as the Ravens had a 9-6 lead with the Steelers backed up on their own 8 yard line with 3:26 to go. Then, in 12 plays, Roethlisberger led the Steelers into the end zone, going ahead 13-9, breaking the hearts of everyone in a raucous M&T Bank, and wrapping up the AFC North. It was one of the best games of the season, a true epic. And it was a game that ended 13-9, with just 513 yards of offense and one TD combined. And it was one of the best games of year. 2008 was that type of season, and that is why I loved it.

Top 20 TV Shows of 2021, #15 - 11

15.) Mythic Quest (Season 2, AppleTV)

I watched both season 2, and season 1 (which came out in 2020) this year, though this ranking is purely based on my opinions of Season 2, which I found a slight step down from Season 1 despite some really interesting places they took the story. The potential takeover angle definitely grew Danny Pudi's character far more than Season 1 was able to, and the breakdown of the two testers was a really nice romantic arc for a show that has steadfastly avoided that for its main roles. I'm interested to see where a Season 3 would go now that Iain and Poppy have left Mythic Quest but what I really hope the show continues to do is lay into how weird that industry is. Also maybe even more of the period episodes - I don't think this years one of the genesis of CW was as good as the one in Season 1, but man can they pull those one-off episodes off just magically.

14.) I Think You Should Leave (Season 2, NETFLIX)

I watched the first season in 2019 when it came out, but didn't rank it for some unknown reason. It was fantastic then, and even if Season 2 didn't hit the unbelievable heights of Season 1, it was still a phenomenal sketch show so brilliantly constructed by a man who SNL did no favors. Even this many months later just thinking about sketches like 'I'm an Asshole', the professor who eats his meal, Coffin Flop and Dan Flashes are enough to put a wild smile on my face. If there's any small criticism of the show is how similar of structure most of the sketches have - in particular just going so far into awkwardness. In the end though, Tim Robinson has a great show from memeable moments, to great delivery, to a seeming unending well of ideas. Can't wait for what's next.

13.) Curb Your Enthusiasm (Season 11, HBO)

I have no idea how this show remains this good at coming up with so many amazing scenarios to tear down eleven years into its run. Case in point was the idea if you can say a divorced woman is grieving when her ex dies. The show was so good in this season even if the main plot was a bit up and down - everything to do with Maria Sofia was golden, but Larry's weird tryst with the councilwoman was a bit grating. Individual episodes just remained brilliant though, with the episode with the Klansman, everything to do with Gabby and so much more. At this point I assume Curb will come back, and as always I'll be right there to lap it up.

12.) Lupin (NETFLIX)

Admittedly, post its first half season at the start of the year, I mentally was expecting Lupin to end up higher. The back half released later in the year was still good and mostly wrapped up Season 1 in a fair, memorable way, but I do think the cons, the acts, the ridiculousness got slightly too much. Especially his escape from the bathroom at the rest stop, the one that the show never went back and explained. The show itself though was just so much fun, both with everything that Assane Diop did and even the more tertiary characters - by and large every person with the police was entertaining. I'll forgive a few slight overdone elements of grandeur for a show that was just consistently entertaining.

11.) The Serpent (NETFLIX)

I had no idea of the story of Charles Sobhraj, and I'm surprised abotu that because he in theory should be one of the more notorious serial murderers in the 20th century. But I will forever thank The Serpent for enlightening me to him, as so brilliantly played by Tahar Rahim. He embodied Sobhraj's quiet ability to pull people in. The show itself did well to focus just on Sobhraj and the two Dutch diplomats the furiously tried to ID him. The show got some admittedly fair critiques for the time jumping creating a story that was too hard to follow, but that just added to the mania of Sobhraj's reign of terror. In the end, The Serpent fairly told a story of a monster without ever trying to portray Sobhraj as any less than one. We didn't need an introspective look at Sobhraj's life. What we needed was a show that explored crimes and did so with real authenticity.

Top-20 TV Shows of 2021, #20 - 16

It's time for the 8th annual ranking of my favorite TV shows. The first year I did this was in 2014, with streaming still in its very nascent stage, and it was a list of 10 shows topped by Season 1 of Fargo. Over the years it expanded to 15 then 20 shows (2017 onwards), mostly as streaming took off and more than 50% of the list would be streaming shows. This year was an interesting one with a lot of shows that took 2020 off because the pandemic interrupted schedules coming back. Also my 2020 list was very mini-series heavy. Because of these two factors, 16 of my shows from the 2020 list are not there this year (below), and peak TV is just continuing to deliver in every way.

So, let's take it away from a Peyton-ified write-in all the way finally to my #1 - to which that show will join Fargo (S1), Veep (S4), The People vs. OJ Simpson, The Young Pope, Succession (S1), Chernobyl and Tiger King.

Changes for 2020

Show ended/was a miniseries

#17 - I May Destroy You

#13 - Fargo (assuming it's done)

#10 - Schitt's Creek

#9 - The Queen's Gambit

#6 - Bojack Horseman

#5 - The New Pope

#4 - The Last Dance

#3 - The Good Lord Bird

Didn't air in 2021

#18 - The Mandalorian

#16 - Perry Mason

#11 - The Flight Attendant

#8 - Better Call Saul

#7 - Babylon Berlin

Wasn't as good in 2021

#19 - The Daily Show with Trevor Noah

#14 - How To with John Wilson

#1 - Tiger King (it really didn't need a Season 2)

Write-In: The Manningcast

I put Inside the NBA on this list back in 2014, the first year I did one of these. I generally don't put these shows on the list, and I don't want to go crazy and rank the Manningcast, but let's talk about it for a second (in reality, can absolutely see me doing a whole piece on the Manningcast). Peyton and Eli have created something that almost immediately because must-watch TV for football fans. They are funny, they are sharp, they can explain the game well, and they care... a lot. Seeing Peyton fume when a QB does something dumb, or when a coach is being too passive, is fun. Seeing both brothers interact was always going to be good, but their ability to wrap in guests and almost without fail making them interesting, if not funny, is such a great credit to their ability. I hope this is not a one-year experiment.

20.) Beartown (HBOMax)

This is a show probably watched by very few people - a Swedish-language show about a local youth hockey team being rocked by a sexual assult scandal. While on its face this seemed like a #metoo show, and it waded well into that territory of why especially for teenagers, going public is so tough. But what the show also did well was expose small-town Sweden and how incredibly tied into the town's fabric hockey is. Think of it as something of the Swedish Friday Night Lights. As a show it deftly touched on celebrity, on overbearing sports parenting, on the cold isolation of Sweden, and of so much else. At times it was a bit heavy-handed and dreary but it kept to plan in that barren canvas of Sweden.

19.) Invincible (Season 1, Amazon Prime)

This animated show about a father/son dynamic of superheroes which turns on its head when the father turns out to be the bad guy was far more complex, witty and honestly dramatic than it had any right being. The graphics weren't the greatest, and the season dind't conclude in a super satisfactory way - granted setting itself up well for a Season 2. But beyond those minor faults lay a show that had the sharpness, say, of an Archer, and enough realistic superhero pathos to make it work. Also, despite it seeming obvious, anything that JK Simmons does is absolutely perfect.

18.) Loki (Disney+)

Loki is the only Marvel tv show to make my Top-20, and frankly none of the others were close (granted Hawkeye has started promising and I may regret not having them in this list. Anyway, Loki was the one of these new shows to find a good balance in what it means to be a tv show. The episodes felt connected but singular, there was a clear drive with the TVA all the way through to almost introducing the multi-verse in more certainty. Also, hte acting was really great. Owen Wilson fit in perfectly from the start, and Tom Hiddleston is just born to play Loki just perfectly. The world didn't need Falcon and the Winter Soldier, and it probably didn't need WandaVision. After Loki's death in Infinity War, we all did need more of the trickster, and this show paid that off well.

17.) Gentified (NETFLIX)

This show was probably my #21 in 2020, narrowly missing out with a great, light show around a Mexican family finding their way through Los Angeles, running a successful but cash-strapped Mexican restaurant. It graduated well to far more serious themes, without losing an inch of its heart, in a great Season 2 centered around their patriarch, Pop (Casimiro), fighting deportation. At times it felt a bit heavy handed how far and wide the show stretches distress, from deportation to LGBTQ issues, to economic anxiety, to the 'tiger dad' that shows up halfway through, but it all works because it is so well acted, none better than Pop who does most of his work in Spanish but is somehow even more impactful the few times he switches to English. It's a small show, but a damn great one.

16.) What We Do in the Shadows (Season 3, FX)

The show has quickly found its niche as a dependable, constant source of laughs without having to worry too much about the plot. Granted, they did try a bit more plot this year, with the vampiric council, Nandor losing a bit of love of being a vampire, and of course the expiration of Colin Robinson. But then in the finale we get Colin reborn as a baby and you just realize again that the show is not about plot, about seeing these four idiots succeed, but far more about just being funny. There might not have been any Jackie Daytona type moment this season but the show remained just a stellar source of laughs.

Marvel Losing It's Way

For 11 years, from Iron Man in 2008 through to Avengers: Endgame in 2019, Marvel was about the most faultless arts/media property. I'm not a Marvel fanatic in that I know the comics or the backstories or whatever, but I watched all the movies, several multiple times, enjoyed nearly all of them, and actually found myself watching Endgame in theatres twice, something I truly had never done in teh past. It was that memorable, that good a payoff for eleven years of investment (or really nine, I don't think I was an out and out fun until the first Avengers movie). They were peerless.

Two years later, with four movies having been released post Endgame (including Spiderman: Far From Home), and four-plus TV shows (WandaVision, Falcon & Winter Soldier, Loki, What If?, and now Hawkeye) I find myself thinking what was once unthinkable: did Marvel outstretch itsef?

I should note, none of the properties I've seen since WandaVision effectively kicked off Phase 4 of Marvel are outright bad. At worst they are blandlessly mediocre (Falcon and Winter Soldier), but all of them just seem a bit off, and more worryingly the only ones that resonated with me featured a lot of people from the era of Marvel it will always try to escape from.

This seems most resonant having really enjoyed the first two episodes of Hawkeye, after finding myself really enjoying Loki. These people I did grow up with, I do still care about. But then again, Sang-Chi is the only movie of the new phase I've enjoyed so far, almost precisely because of how disconnected it was to the larger Multiverse pot. And in reality, I think that is where things are losing me.

Simply put, I think the Multiverse as a concept is just a bit too broad, a bit too far, a bit too mystifying to reasonably do. The band-aid was ripped with Endgame, but at least it still seemed somewhat followable (for as much as quantum-based time travel could be). But with what really started in Loki, and was leaned into fully in What If? and is almost assuredly showing its face in the next Spiderman and the next Dr. Strange movie (if not many other Marvel TV and movie properties), I think this might be too far.

The physics of a multi-verse is about as advanced as you et, and far more so tha what can be reasonably expected for any comic fan. Granted, I do understand this has some basis in the Marvel comics, but again I'm not a comic guy. I'm a movie guy, and seeing these intergalactic, multi-universal problems have taken what is already such a broad conflict board (e.g. Thanos killing trillions across billions of planets) into hyperdrive.

I realize this is very close-minded of me, and honestly maybe I'll end up loving the Multiverse as a canvas-slash-big bad. What I don't appreciate though is with the Multiverse we've seemed to lose any semblance of who is stronger than who and for what reason. In the Infinity Saga there used to be a general sense of powers and a bit of a power ranking - pun intended, in this case. Whether its Wanda in WandaVision, or the Timekeepers in Loki, or basically everyone in What If? powers seem arbitrary, endless and limitless.

I also there's a bit of overload here, with so much content being endlessly thrown at us (granted, some of this crunch is due to Covid delaying the few things that would've come out in 2020), that I do wonder if the quality control is like it used to be - or is Marvel seemingyl happy to throw out a bunch of 'B's instead of focusing on the 2-4 'A' movies it used to.

It's hard to say it;s a bad thing that Kevin Fiege and the Movie folks got more control of the TV side of things. Apart from maybe Jessica Jones, I never got into the earlier Marvel TV content. The shows are better now and it probably is a net positive that there is a connectivity to the movies, but it is asking a lot of us to wathch all that and figure out where the connections are. 

Ultimately, there's enough good will here to keep me invested for a while longer, but I for usre see a world where it gets a bit too much, the storylines a bit too intricate and tightly wound (a negative, in this case), and a bit too strained for even me to keep giving it my time. I just hope we get past that Thor movie before it happens.