NFL 2020: Week 12 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Dreaming of Trevor" Duo

32.) New York Jets  =  0-10  (149-302)

31.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  1-9  (202-298)

At this point it is so clear who the bottom two teams are, but in reality the Jags are really bad, but something a bit forgotten by just how bad the Jets are. Anyone relative to the Jets seems ok. And in reality the Jags, easily the worst looking team on paper heading into the year, is playing harder and keeping most games closer than the Jets. There is a chance they can snatch the #1 pick if they end up with the same record as the Jets - which would be awful for the Jets fans but probably more deserving for the Jags.

Tier II - The "Are you kidding me?" Uno

30.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  2-7-1  (213-270)

Man, that was just awful. I had such strong flashbacks to the last #1 pick QB the Bengals had, when Carson Palmer tore his knee. Granted, that was in a playoff game with a Bengals team fully on the rise. This is not that. This Bengals team is far away from that 2005 vintage. The Bengals though have some talent around them and now should be able to get a top pick around Burrow. I still believe in Joe, but it is clear he needs much better protection to avoid a David Carr-esque career.

Tier III - The "It still astounds me the NFC East is this bad, Pt.1" Duo

29.) Dallas Cowboys  =  3-7  (235-318)

28.) Washington Football Team  =  3-7  (200-227)

It is so staggering how bad the NFC East is as a division. Like the most likely out come is a 6-9-1 or 6-10 winner - and if anything that needs a team to go 3-3 to finish. These two are to me less likely. Getting Dalton back could bring some stability to the Cowboys. For the Football Team, the defense remains quite strong but they haven't been able to remain competitive with any team above .500 so far. In the end, it will come down to which team can steal division games and I think these two are just unlikely to do so.

Tier IV - The "Low-end Spoilers" Trio

27.) Denver Broncos  =  4-6  (206-267)

26.) Detroit Lions  =  4-6  (227-287)
25.) Atlanta Falcons  =  3-7  (252-275)

None of these three teams is very good, with likely 6-10 or, at best 7-9, finishes ahead. The Broncos defense continuing to be decent in absence of Von Miller is still surprising, Lock is a mess, but there is enough talent around him that they could have a bright future. A lot will depend on guys like Jeudy. For the Lions, there a hyperactive team that can easily put their shutout behind them and play well... only to maybe get blasted again. The Falcons are just what they are - what's been most sad is a bit of a loss in Ryan's play of late. I'm more certain than ever that either Ryan or Stafford (or both) will be elsewhere next season. Hopefully for the love of Detroit, so will Matt Patricia.

Tier V - The "Seriously, this shit again NFC East" Uno

24.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  3-6-1  (220-254)
23.) New York Giants  =  3-7  (195-236)

Again, it's incredible how bad this division is. I think a lot of this NFC East reverence is not just a memories of a long-gone 1980s brilliance, but more that when NBC took over Sunday Night Football and turned that into the premier showcase, the NFC East had a nice run from 2006-2010, especially those first two years having both Wild Cards. Of course, that did not in any way last.... Alas, the Giants to me are the best team in this division, with a defense that plays at a competent level each week. If they can protect Jones and Jones can cut his turnovers at all, they should win the division. I don't know if we should credit Joe Judge too much for a rookie seaosn going 7-9, but that might be a great accomplishment.

Tier VI - The "High-end Spoilers" Quinto

22.) Carolina Panthers  =  4-7  (253-272)
21.) Minnesota Vikings  =  4-6  (264-278)
20.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  3-7  (260-273)
19.) Houston Texans  =  3-7  (227-272)

18.) San Francisco 49ers  =  4-6  (238-234)

There's an outside shot for the Vikings or 49ers to make some late run, but in reality all five of these teams are too far out to reasonably expect playoffs. That's what happens when there is somehow just on 5-5 team after 10-games. The Panthers are among the more schizophrenic teams in the league. The Vikings could have theoretically been more in the race had they not blown that game, but they've done well to stabilize the defense. The Thielen covid issue is just the worst time. The Texans still have talent and Watson has remained great but they just had too big an issue to dive out of. For the 49ers, Mullens will remain key for them - it's a testament to their team building they are treading water with the spate of injuries they've faced.

Tier VII - The "Maybe it isn't too late?" Duo

17.) New England Patriots  =  4-6  (209-238)

16.) Chicago Bears  =  5-5  (191-209)

The Bears are the league's only 5-5 team which is hilarious. It may seem interesting, putting them one loss behind the Buccaneers for the last wild card spot (especially given they have the head-to-head win), but less so when you remember they were 5-1. The defense is still excellent however. For the Patriots the defense is a disaster, but Newton's growing rapport with Damiere Byrd and returning control of the offense gives them a chance to be a version of the Raiders - aim for significant ball control to pull games out. Both are good enough to either make a chase or ruin a lot of dreams.

Tier VIII - The "Fun but probably not great Wild Card teams" Trio

15.) Miami Dolphins  =  6-4  (264-202)

14.) Cleveland Browns  =  7-3  (238-261)
13.) Arizona Cardinals  =  6-4  (287-238)

The Dolphins got a little sobering dose of reality there - life is harder when you aren't pulling a return or defensive TD each game. The Tua benching is weird, but it's good they're going rihgt back to Tua with no issue. He is their future, even if they may not be a playoff team this year - they never were supposed to be one. For the Browns, they keep winning despite Mayfield doing next to nothing. While they are closing in on their first playoff season in eighteen years, the fact that Mayfield is such a little part of that is a problem. For the Cardinals, Murray has been fine and the team has good talent but it might be a year early in the NFL's best divsion.

Tier IX - The "More fun and maybe great Wild Card round teams" Duo

12.) Buffalo Bills  =  7-3  (272-265)
11.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  6-4  (286-276)

The Bills have been on a bye ever sinee their loss in the Hail Mary game, and return still a game up on the Dolphins. The Bills are a very good team but its beyond time waiting for their defense to fix itself. For the Raiders, we never expected the defense to fix itself. Both teams are being carried by offenses with QBs playing out of their minds at the moment. It's enough of a sample size to not think that will change. For Carr, he's been playing well for two years now, but his renewed sense of throwing deep is something to behold. Both teams have fairly easy schedules to take advantage of and truly should be playoff teams at this point.

Tier X - The "Ships passing in the night" Duo

10.) Baltimore Ravens  =  6-4  (268-195)
9.) Tennessee Titans  =  7-3  (279-259)

That said, because of the presence of these two teams, very likely one of these four teams will not be in the playoffs (or the Colts drop out). The Ravens not making it are shocking, but that's what happens when you drop a few winnable games (this one, the Steelers game) and have a bunch of injuries and strange drops in play (more talking about guys like Hollywood Brown as much as Lamar). The Ravens are still by most metrics a top team but it's been a while since they looked like one. For the Titans, this was a good recover after a tough loss to the Colts, right ahead of another one. At this point we have to see this team as what it has been from teh second that Tannehill took over last year - a flexible play-action and smash-mouth offense that consistently puts up 24-34 points a game. That is still a very good play.

Tier XI - The "Middle tier NFC contenders" Trio

8.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  7-4  (320-253)

7.) Seattle Seahawks  =  7-3  (318-287)

6.) Green Bay Packers  =  7-3  (308-258)

The Buccaneers have the best resume of these teams in this tier in terms of the number of blowout wins. Hell, they just had one eight days ago. Problem is they've also had more stinkers than either of these two (two poor losses, compared to one for the Seahawks and Packers). All three I think are still a little bit behind the two NFC teams I have above them. They have more weaknesses, be it the ongoing inability for Brady to look comfortable in that scheme, and of course the Seahawks and Packers overall defenses. What separates Seattle and Green Bay is they have bigger trump card - in that Wilson and Rodgers are operating at a different level than Brady is right now. It might just be that simple.

Tier XII - The "Just solid, good, teams" Trio

5.) Los Angeles Rams  =  7-3  (243-192)
4.) Indianapolis Colts  =  7-3  (276-208)
3.) New Orleans Saints  =  8-2  (295-222)

All three of these teams - even a Saints version without Brees for a few more games - are just good in all phases. They probably have lower ceilings than the three teams before them (though I would argue that is untrue for the Saints - they of the 38-3 win over Tampa), but they have very high floors. Rivers has settled down his game and is starting to build a rapport with TY Hilton. The Rams offense is very good, if a little too in love with jet sweeps and the like. It's really the defenses of these three that give me great hope and comfort. Brandon Staley (Rams) and Matt Eberflus (Colts) have coached great, great defenses around a few blue chip players (Donald & Ramsey, Buckner & Leonard). For the Saints, it took a while for their defense to come together but it certainly has the last five or so games. This is an area of play where I think each of these teams has an outside shot of a Super Bowl if their play can reach their ceiling - what helps is I think they can avoid upsets better than the three below them.

Tier XIII - The "Could we get a 16-0 v 15-1 Title Game?" Duo

2.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  10-0  (298-174)

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  9-1  (321-214)

There's a bit of an undercurrent right now that the Steelers are a 10-0 team flying under the radar. I get that, mainly because until the last few weeks they've not always dominated teams. But now they have a point differential, and by far the best defense in the league, befitting a 10-0 team. That said, I do think we're sleeping a bit on the Chiefs as well - a defending champ that is rolling at 9-1, also with a good point differential, and an offense that can play out of its mind at its best. These two won't play in the regular season but we could be in line for an incredible playoff matchup between these two.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Miami Dolphins (6-4)  @  New York Jets (0-10)  (1:00 - CBS)

15.) Cleveland Browns (7-3)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9)  (1:00 - CBS)

14.) New York Giants (3-7)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (2-7-1)  (1:00 - FOX)
13.) Houston Texans (3-7)  @  Detroit Lions (4-6)  (THX - CBS)

12.) Carolina Panthers (4-7)  @  Minnesota Vikings (4-6)  (1:00 - FOX)

11.) Washington Football Team (3-7)  @  Dallas Cowboys (3-7)  (THX - FOX)
10.) Arizona Cardinals (6-4)  @  New England Patriots (4-6)  (1:00 - FOX)

9.) Seattle Seahawks (7-3)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (3-6-1)  (MNF - ESPN)

8.) Las Vegas Raider (6-4)  @  Atlanta Falcons (3-7)  (1:00  - CBS)

7.) New Orleans Saints (8-2)  @  Denver Broncos (4-6)  (4:05 - FOX)
6.) San Francisco 49ers (4-6)  @  Los Angeles Rams (7-3)  (4:05 - FOX)

5.) Los Angeles Chargers (3-7)  @  Buffalo Bills (7-3)  (1:00 - CBS)

4.) Chicago Bears (5-5)  @  Green Bay Packers (7-3)  (SNF - NBC)
3.) Tennessee Titans (7-3)  @  Indianapolis Colts (7-3)  (1:00 - CBS)

2.) Baltimore Ravens (6-4)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (10-0)  (THX - NBC)

1.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4)  (4:25 - CBS)

NFL 2020: Week 11 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Dreaming of Trevor" Duo

32.) New York Jets  =  0-9  (121-268)

31.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  1-8  (199-271)

Neither of these two teams is any good, and both nicely lost close games in their last time out. Both are squarely in the tanking for Trevor Lawrence mode at the moment - with the Jets able to do it right before needing to pick up a 5th year option for Sam Darnold that will be not picked up at the soonest possible moment. For the Jaguars too, Minshew-Mania was cute and all, but they need a real QB to have a chance. Fr both teams, the chance to have a real top-flight QB would be franchise-altering - but you have to worry the few times either team dipped their toe in the top of the 1st round pool it went off the rails quick (Sanchez, Darnold for the Jets; Bortles for the Jags)

Tier II - The "Well, we're settled at QB, right?" Trio

30.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  2-6-1  (204-250)
29.) Dallas Cowboys  =  2-7  (204-290)

28.) Houston Texans  =  2-7  (200-252)

None of these three teams are outright awful (assuming the Cowboys under Garrett Gilbert are somewhat able to hold their form) - at least compared to the two below them. The Bengals mainly need an OL and a rebuilt defense, but I trust in a future of Joe Burrow. The Cowboys still have the question around Dak, but this is shaping up as a repeat of 2015 - a 4-12 season that sandwhiched 12-4 and 13-3 seasons. Of course that isn't the case if they let Dak go. For the Texans this too is a right off. What is really threatening for them is the potential usurption of the franchise under the control of Jack Easterby, someone too loony for Belichick but is Baby Billying his way to control in Houston apparently. With Watson there still is a whole lot of potential but they have a chance to get out of the mess the O'Brien era left them in, and they are not starting on teh right path for that.

Tier III - The "Well, we're not settled at QB, right?" Duo

27.) Washington Football Team  =  2-7  (180-218)

26.) Denver Broncos  =  3-6  (186-254)

So these two teams probably have QB decisions to make. Drew Lock is just in year 2 (as is Dwayne Haskins, I guess) but was so bad last week against the Raiders it begs the question if he will never truly get better. Certainly both teams have to look hard at QB decisions this offseason - weather it is taking risks on a Darnold resurrection, or the draft. For the Football Team though, there is still a chance at the playoffs so they could argue they have bigger things to worry about but that seems so far away at this point.

Tier IV - The "Half Alive Sleepers" Quadro

25.) New York Giants  =  3-7  (195-236)
24.) Carolina Panthers  =  3-7  (233-272)
23.) San Francisco 49ers  =  4-6  (238-234)

22.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  2-7  (226-245)

Again other than the Giants, with their NFC East benefit, none of these teams are playoff contenders but are all alive enough to play a close games. The Giants are a few turns away from actually being quite a bit better - close loses to the Steelers, Bears and Buccaneers - all three games turning on Daniel Jones turnovers. If he can solve that issue, the rest of the team is actually fairly decent around him. For the Panthers, their defense has really regressed as the season has gone on, and needs a lot of investment to bring it back. The 49ers are still having an unfortunate season from hell - the real decisions are anyway this offseason around their QB spot. For the Chargers, they may be having the most optimistic, fun 5-11 season ever. This season is terrible in terms of outcome, but Herbert looks like a solid long term starter, there is still talent across this lineup, and they'll end up with a good pick out of it.

Tier V - The "Soft underbelly of the NFC" Trio

21.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  3-5-1  (203-232)
20.) Atlanta Falcons  =  3-6  (243-251)
19.) Detroit Lions  =  4-5  (227-267)

The NFC has a lot of middling teams - these three define that. All three are good enough to pull of random wins (and again, the Eagles could still host a playoff game). The Falcons offense has still had great games - easily they could be the decider in who wins the NFC South between the Bucs and Saints. The Lions are not a good team, but they've already beaten the Cardinals and can pick off a top team again. All three have questions on the QB. For teh Falcons and Lions there is enough rumbling you expect one of the two to leave their respective long term homes. For the Eagles, you get the feeling they woudl look to do that with Wentz if they could - though I still reamain firm it is amazing how little the Eagles have given Wentz to work with - somewhat due to poor injury luck - since 2018.

Tier VI - The "Ships passing in the night" Quadro

18.) Chicago Bears  =  5-5  (191-209)
17.) Cleveland Browns  =  6-3  (216-244)

16.) Minnesota Vikings  =  4-5  (236-247)
15.) New England Patriots  =  4-5  (189-211)

The Bears and Browns started fast (technically, the Browns still are a fast-starter). But injuries and reduction in play of defenses adn running games are starting to expose issues at the QB position. On the other side, the Vikings and Patriots started slow but the rest of the team is starting to play better. For teh Vikings, it is their defense that was atrocious at the start slowly working in their new secondary players, coupled with a pass rush that is getting more aggressive as it gets more trusting of its DBs. For the Patriots, it is an OL coming together, and the growth of Jacoby Meyers as Newton's favorite target. Both might be too far off the pace in a normal season, but with three wild cards, both have reasonable shots of sneaking in if they can pull off a few wins against the weaker parts of their schedules.

Tier VII - The "Maybe they're real!?" Trio

14.) Tennessee Titans  =  6-3  (249-235)
13.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  6-3  (255-241)
12.) Miami Dolphins  =  6-3  (251-182)

The AFC is a bizarre conference, with a 9-0 team, an 8-1 team, and then six different 3-loss teams. These are teh ones to me that I can foresee one of the two completely dropping off, one going 11-5 or so, and then one going about 9-7 or so and squeaking into the playoffs. Hard to predict which will be which. The Dolphins have a shockingly good point differential, though thats largely based on unsustainable defensive and special teams returns. The Raiders defense is still atrocious, but their offense is good enough at ball control to shorten games. For the Titans, it defintiely seems like their 5-0 honeymoon is over - a lot of that due to injures and a smoke and mirrors defense getting old, but Tannehill and Henry are good enough. If I guess, the Titans fall off, the Dolphins go 9-7 or so, and the Raiders ride an easy schedule to 11-5.

Tier VIII - The "Great NFC West Battle... for 2nd place?" Duo

11.) Seattle Seahawks  =  6-3  (290-266)

10.) Arizona Cardinals  =  6-3  (266-210)

They play this Thursday (quick preview of the next section - the primetime games are GREAT this week), and man if it is anything like the last game they played we are in for something beautiful. That game was the turning point of the season for Russell Wilson, who's doing a great Drew Brees circa 2012 impression these last few weeks (or Phil Rivers). For the Seahawks, it isn't just Wilson, but a defense that is not getting any better, that I can't get over with them ahead of the Cardinals who have shown an ability to win games they play poorly in, with an offense that is a bit more multi-dimensional than 'have Wilson do some shit.'

Tier IX - The "Let's just hang on!" Duo

9.) Buffalo Bills  =  7-3  (272-265)
8.) New Orleans Saints  =  7-2  (271-213)

Both of these teams are in turbulent times. Obviously the Saints have it a bit more acutely with Brees out for some amoutn of games. Winston is a decent backuip but he gives the Saints risks in the one place Brees hasn't for a long time - turnovers. Last year they excelled when Brees was out but that was with a perfect QB when trying to play low-risk football and let a talented roster take over. For the Bills, it is a defense that still hasn't risen up to close to their level last year. The oddest failing is the sudden drop-off in pass rush, something that Sean McDermott has rarely faced. You trust him to be able to manage it over time but ten weeks is a decent sample size. It is so weird to be at this stage and have full trust in their offense and Josh Allen but little on the otehr side. How quickly things change.

Tier X - The "Just solid teams" Trio

7.) Los Angeles Rams  =  6-3  (216-168)
6.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  7-3  (296-226)

5.) Indianapolis Colts  =  6-3  (242-177)

The top-end of the league this season just has a lot of very good teams this year. These three are all solid on offense and defense, and are showing signs of 12-4 potential. The Rams are still a little unpredictable given how much of their early success was getting the four NFC East teams. That said, their defense is fairly undeniable at this point, and Goff with leads is fine. The Bucs are so tough to read since I don't know if any team has mixed so many poor performances with great ones. The defense still hasn't been great since Vea went down - one half against the Panthers doesn't change that. For the Colts, they've been a steady good so far, and I think there is the most confidence - but that confidence is a mix of a high floor with probably the lowest ceiling of the three.

Tier XI - The "Let's not overreact!" Uno

4.) Baltimore Ravens  =  6-3  (244-165)

Do you know who the Ravens remind me of? So many teams in the last 15 years or so that had great regular seasons one year, lost early in the playoffs, came back and had "middling" seasons and then in the end were fine. Be it the 2005 Steelers, 2006 Colts, 2012 Ravens, or even the 2019 Chiefs. People are overreacting, dissecting an offense that isn't a world-beater but still fairly good, and a defense that has remained great. They still have an efficient offense. My worry is the injuries on offense - particularly to the OL and now top blockign TE, hamper them. That said, this is the script so many have faced - and a 'down' year still looks to be 11-5 with a 433-293 point differential.

Tier XII - The "Flawed but Great" Duo

3.) Green Bay Packers  =  7-2  (277-224)

2.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  9-0  (271-171)

Aside from my team at #1, to me these two have the highest ceiling of any team (maybe you can argue the Cubs). The Packers have it with the highest ceiling offense. Aside from that windy disaster against Jacksonville and the dreadful game against Tampa, this has been one of the most efficient, consistent offenses in a while - maybe second or third in Rodgers career behind 2011 and 2014. They are finally healthy and have such high upside. For the Steelers, it is the defense, with an offense that can score 30 fairly easily. What could hurt them at some point is their abject inability to run the ball, but Roethlisberger's quick offense has picked it up as a quasi-run game anyway.

Tier XIII - The "Are we sleeping on the Champs?" Uno

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  8-1  (286-183)

They are still the best - but somehow under the radar. Mahomes isn't, he of the 25 TDs and 1 INT. Aside from teh low INT number he actually has been no better than either of the past two seasons, but that still leaves him as the best QB in football in an offense perfect for him. What is more under the radar is the strength and consistency of the defense. It doesn't always show in the numbers as Spagnuolo has a proclivity to get blitz happy which gives up some big plays, but they're also coasting to some degree. Starting this week with teh revenge game against the Raiders, the Chiefs have the chance to have a pretty special 2020 season.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Byes: Buffalo Bills (7-3),  Chicago Bears (5-5), New York Giants (3-7), San Francisco 49ers (4-6)

14.) New York Jets (0-9)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (2-7)  (1:00 - CBS)

13.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-6-1)  @  Washington Football Team (2-7)  (1:00 - CBS)

12.) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-0)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)  (4:05 - CBS)

11.) Dallas Cowboys (2-7)  @  Minnesota Vikings (4-5)  (4:25 - FOX)

10.) Miami Dolphins (2-7)  @  Denver Broncos (3-6)  (4:05 - CBS)

9.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-5-1)  @  Cleveland Browns (6-3)  (1:00 - FOX)

8.) Detroit Lions (4-5)  @  Carolina Panthers (3-7)  (1:00 - FOX)
7.) New England Patriots (4-5)  @  Houston Texans (2-7)  (1:00 - CBS)

6.) Atlanta Falcons (3-6)  @  New Orleans Saints (7-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

5.) Tennessee Titans (6-3)  @  Baltimore Ravens (6-3)  (1:00 - CBS)

4.) Kansas City Chiefs (8-1)  @  Las Vegas Raiders (6-3)  (SNF - NBC)

3.) Green Bay Packers (7-2)  @  Indianapolis Colts (6-3)  (4:25 - FOX)

2.) Los Angeles Rams (6-3)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3)  (MNF - ESPN)

1.) Arizona Cardinals (6-3)  @  Seattle Seahawks (6-3)  (TNF - FOX)

NFL 2020: Week 9 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Tanking for Trevor" Trio

32.) New York Jets  =  0-9  (121-268)

31.) Dallas Cowboys  =  2-7  (204-290)

30.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  1-7  (179-247)

I'm throwing the Cowboys into the Tank for Trevor category because with Dak an impending Free Agent, I can easily see Jones go ga-ga for Trevor Lawrence (or Justin Fields), especially as the Cowboys look so headed for 3-13. The Jags seemingly are better than their record, but it is funny the team we all that was closest to tanking before the season went out and won their first game and then lost all their next games. The Jets are so laughably bad that their close loss to New England says a lot more about New England. Gase is defintiely DOA - I'm starting to think Darnold is too more for his durability concerns than play at this point.

Tier II - The"Just Hang In There" Quinto

29.) Denver Broncos  =  3-5  (174-217)
28.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  2-5-1  (194-214)

27.) Washington Football Team  =  2-6  (153-188)

26.) Houston Texans  =  2-6  (193-242)

25.) New York Giants  =  2-7  (168-219)

Ok, there's a lot of below-mediocre but not purely bad teams (and yes, I'm including the Giants in this - a team whose only wins came against one of the other teams in the group). The Broncos haven't really gotten any better with Drew Lock returning but I still somewhat believe in him long term and that defense is still fairly talented. The Bengals, I definitely believe in Joe Burrow, who just needs help. Some of the younger weapons are decent around him but the OL is a mess. The Football Team needs a QB, but the defense also needs to be more consistent game to game. The Texans still have some talent but man they need some solidarity in their leadership. The Giants have lost a slew of close games. Daniel Jones's turnovers are a problem but aside from that I do think they are building a decent core. OL is a problem there as well. To be honest OL concerns is the common theme across all these teams.

Tier III - The "Is it Time to Cut Bait" Duo

24.) Detroit Lions  =  3-5  (197-240)
23.) Atlanta Falcons  =  3-6  (243-251)

The Lions drafted Matthew Stafford in 2009. The Falcons drafted Matt Ryan in 2008. Somehow Stafford is three years younger than Ryan, but both Matts have been there for a decade-plus now. Both are fine QBs, capable of winning a reasonable amount of games with drek around them, and even 10-11 games with good talent around them. The Lions and Falcons are far away from having good talent around them. At some point both teams need to rebuild, and I'm curious if either pull the trigger this offseason. It will take a lot of mental fortitude to do so, and may incur a big cap penalty, but 13 or 12 years is a long time to have let this run.

Tier IV - The "Honestly, it's Sad" Uno

22.) New England Patriots  =  3-5  (166-194)

Yeah, them being excited for beating an 0-8 and laughably bad Jets team with a 51-yard field goal at the gun is not what I expected 2020 Patriots to be about. The Patriots are going through such a turn now with injuries, and opt-outs. Cam is fighting for his life with less to throw to than Brady had last year. The defense has fallen off a complete cliff which I have to admit is a bit shocking. Unless we get SuperCam this team is done and the playoff streak is over easily.

Tier V - The "Man, 2021 could be Fun" Trio

21.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  2-6  (205-216)
20.) Carolina Panthers  =  3-6  (210-216)
19.) San Francisco 49ers  =  4-5  (225-207)

All three teams are likely not playoff bound in 2020, the Chargers and Panthers having lost a lot of razor close games, and the 49ers having lost just everyone on their team. That said, both teams are still well positioned for next season. Specifically hte Chargers - assuming Herbert maintains this level of play going forward. Herbert has been great, and the team has been good, but they've somehow managed to blow game after game. What it really reminds me of in a way is the 2016 Eagles, a very talented team that lost a slew of close games but put it together in Year 2. For the Panthers and 49ers, there are larger question marks given the long-term viability questions around Bridgewater and Garoppolo, but the rest of those teams are talented and still fairly young. If there are any teams worth following despite their sub-500 record and completely blocked playoff prospects, these are the three.

Tier VI - The "The Ceiling is the Floor" Duo

18.) Chicago Bears  =  5-4  (178-190)

17.) Cleveland Browns  =  5-3  (206-237)

In a normal season, I doubt these two are normal playoff competitors. However, with the presence of an extra Wild Card spot, and because of how up-and-down this season seems like, they both have a chance. The Bears need their defense to overplay itself to have a chance now that Nick Foles is no longer overcoming the woeful OL. For the Browns, it isn't the OL, it is a combination of Mayfield needing to be more consistent, and their offense fidning ways to stay ahead without Odell Beckham, Jr. The defense's talent is woefully underperforming as well aside from Myles Garrett. That team being on pace to give up 474 points - even counting this being an abnormal scoring year - is shocking.

Tier VII - The "Maybe it's not Too Late" Duo

16.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  3-4-1  (186-205)

15.) Minnesota Vikings  =  3-5  (217-234)

I probably shouldn't have the Eagles in this spot as they are the likely NFC East winner at this point. Then again, have you seen their schedule? They get to at least 5 wins just playing out the NFC East string, but if they win the division at 5-10-1 I actually do think we get reform on division winners being at lesat guaranteed a home game. The Vikings are likely not playoff competitors, but their schedule gets notably easier the second half of the seaosn. A 9-7 finish is not out of the question at all for a team whose defense is getting better game after game. A team starting 1-5 and making the playoffs isn't even that notable - with the Colts doing it just two years ago. Chances are each team is what it is - the Vikings destined for 8-8, and the Eagles destined to be the most laughable division winner ever.

Tier VIII - The "Fun, Flawed Contenders" Quadro

14.) Miami Dolphins  =  5-3  (222-161)
13.) Arizona Cardinals  =  5-3  (234-180)
12.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  5-3  (218-229)
11.) Tennessee Titans  =  6-2  (232-201)

There's a lot of teams with two or three losses - in my memory it seems like there are more than normal (have no idea if that is true). These four to me are all combinations of high-variance, potential great games but also potential blowouts too. The Dolphins point differential is surprisingly good but its being weighted up by that weird 49ers blowout and a slew of return TDs. The Raiders probably have the highest floor of these teams because their offense is basically 'high-floor' in a bottom and can shorten games enough for the defensive deficiencies to not matter as much. The Titans have the highest ceiling but their smoke and mirrors defense is largely getting exposed this year with their glaring lack of pass rush when they don't blitz.

Tier IX - The "Fun, Less Flawed Contenders" Quadro

10.) Seattle Seahawks  =  6-2  (274-243)
9.) Los Angeles Rams  =  5-3  (193-152)

8.) Buffalo Bills  =  7-2  (242-233)

7.) Green Bay Packers  =  6-2  (253-204)

Here we have two high ceiling teams in Seattle and Green Bay, who've shown they can be blown out (and I would call Seattle's loss to the Bills a blowout), and two high-floor teams in the Rams and Bills, both of whom have been picked off by worse teams on their down days. All four teams should make the playoffs at this point - though with the rams the fact they are 1-3 outside the NFC does scare me. The defense that Brandon Staley has built is quite commendable however. The Packers defense getting this much worse is a bit mysterious, espeically with a good unit on paper. The Seahawks are just a disaster on that side of the ball, and they'll need to improve their turnover rate to keep this up. The Wilson offense alone however should get them to 10 wins anyway. The Bills are an interesting team on how quickly they've flipped to an offense first juggernaut. Their dropoff on defense is even stranger than the Patriots. There's games like last week where they did a great job on one of the best offenses for 30 minutes, but those runs of great play are too short and too infrequent.

Tier X - The "Old Man QB, Pt. 1" Duo

6.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  6-3  (250-203)

5.) Indianapolis Colts  =  5-3  (208-160)

My next four teams had QBs drafted in 2000, 2004, 2004 and 2001. Yeah, I don't get it either (let's remember in that last batch was a guy drafted in 2005). They're at all various levels of success. The Bucs have had good play but Brady's play under pressure is still incredibly worrisome, especially if their OL is the way it was the last two games. Their defense hasn't been the same against the run since Vita Vea went out. For the Colts, Rivers stats were mostly fine until that awful game against the Ravens. Their defense is stout, and consistent but the offense needs some jump - especially if TY Hilton doesn't come back to life. The Colts and Bucs are both defense first teams with good upside on offense - if anything I think the Colts floor is higher, mainyl because their OL is better,

Tier XI - The "Old Man QB, Pt. 2" Duo

4.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  8-0  (235-161)

3.) New Orleans Saints  =  6-2  (244-200)

And now we get the other two old QBs, who personally I think are playing better. There's been a lot of talk about Roethlisberger not throwing deep, but to me that's a factor of him throwing quick. They've made a concerted effort to throw quick and it has mostly worked. The defense is still very good. Yes, it is troubling they've had challenges putting away bad teams (be it even the Giants all the way back in Week 1) but 8-0 without playing their best in many games says a lot. For the Saints, this isn't so much about trusting Brees has effectively come back to life, but rather their defense has. With Davenport back and Marcus Williams and Marshon Lattimore playing at level again, that defense can be the unit that was so good last year. Their offense isn't really any worse than it was in 2019 - their defense just needed to catch up to that level.

Tier XII - The "Back in the Saddle Again" Duo

2.) Baltimore Ravens  =  6-2  (227-142)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  8-1  (286-183)

Yeah, I still think these are the two best teams - even if the Ravens are very much behind the curve for even winning their division. The Ravens have a great point differential, with a great defense, despite their offense not nearly being as good this year. I don't think there is anything structurally wrong with them aside from a higher than normal turnover rate - see their game against the Steelers which they easily should have won until their turnovers. For the Chiefs, well what is to say. They played a 'C' game against a decent team and won. Mahomes is quietly having a stupid good season. The defense has remained strong throughout even with a few injuires starting to arise. The Chiefs are the league's best team, and truly in my mind it isn't really that close at the moment.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Byes: New York Jets (0-9), Dallas Cowboys (2-7), Kansas City Chiefs (8-1)., Atlanta Falcons (3-6)

14.) Washington Football Team (2-6)  @  Detroit Lions (3-5)  (1:00 - FOX)

13.) Houston Texans (2-6)  @  Cleveland Browns (5-3)  (1:00 - FOX)

12.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7)  @  Green Bay Packers (6-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

11.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-5-1)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (8-0)  (4:25 - FOX)

10.) Minnesota Vikings (3-6)  @  Chicago Bears (5-4)  (MNF - ESPN)
9.) Baltimore Ravens (6-2)  @  New England Patriots (3-5)  (SNF - NBC)

8.) Los Angeles Chargers (2-6)  @  Miami Dolphins (5-3)  (4:05 - CBS)

7.) Denver Broncos (3-5)  @  Las Vegas Raiders (5-3)  (4:05 - CBS)
6.) San Francisco 49ers (4-5)  @  New Orleans Saints (6-2)  (4:25 - FOX)
5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)  @  Carolina Panthers (3-6)  (1:00 - FOX)
4.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-1)  @  New York Giants (2-7)  (1:00 - FOX)
3.) Buffalo Bills (7-2)  @  Arizona Cardinals (5-3)  (4:05 - CBS)

2.) Seattle Seahawks (6-2)  @  Los Angeles Rams (5-3)  (4:25 - FOX)
1.) Indianapolis Colts (5-3)  @  Tennessee Titans (6-2)  (TNF - FOX)

Four Long Years

I can still remember the catatonic state of mind that was November 8th, 2016. I entered the day so ready to see Trump lose. I was never a huge Hillary fan, but saw a trailblazer in her quest to be the first woman President, and saw an orange-faced maniac, idiot fool on the other side. It seemed so obvious. It wasn't.

Those agonizing hours, with the early start of returns in the rust belt seeming fallow. Soon it would get worse and worse of a nightmare, Trump's slow win moving to an eventual inevitability. Even when it was more and more assured - despite CNN's best efforts to give us hope - I couldn't believe it. Forget his politics. I didn't care that it was a republican winning - but moreso a racist, sexist, misogynist, idiot. That last one was the most pressing. We've had racist President's before. We've had womanizers. We've had horrible people/ We never had a lazy idiot who never wanted the job.

I remember the dark feeling that hung over the air in the days following his election. I remember having a meeting with a client - a mother of two, half-latina American. She was almost in tears. I remember hoping, just hoping, we understimate Donald Trump - we didn't.

The last four years have been an embarrassment. From the early days of his presidency with the Muslim Travel Ban. From the latter stages with his abhorrent handling of the pandemic. For all the madness in between - the "Cofveve"s, the slew of embarrassments in the global stage (him pushing past presidents of other nations). The weird love of dictators - the way he took a susceptible part of America and radicalized it. Trump was a disaster from the start, and worse of all he was our disaster. Even at that point, more people in America disliked him than liked him but that didn't matter - he was our President. 

Four years later, we vote him our. As so many people have said, this is a "Welcome Back" for our country, an opportunity to repent for our ills of electing an idiot, and beg for forgiveness to be a leader. I know the next four years aren't going to be perfect. Biden will already enter a political environment with staunch opposition from the Senate, from divisions within his own party of how far to push legislation. It won't be perfect - the Tea Party 2.0 is likely around the corner, putting aside any sort of Trump TV type movement. The fight isn't done, but the initial battle is over.

Trump represented everything wrong with America - the unearned brashness and attitude, the myopic nationalistic point of view, the stupid fake machismio. All of it was just the worst. The last four years was a series of idiocy that started right from the top. Add to it evil as well - the bans, the children in cages, the stripping away of women's and LGBTQ rights. The stoking of tensions on racial violence and police violence. All of it was just an unending, unbearable mix that reflected so poorly on America.

That all ends now. At the top we have a decent, smart, strong, generous man. He isn't perfect - sure, but he's so immeasurably better. Joe Biden is my President; Kamala Harris is my Vice President. After four long years it is just great to be respectful for and proud of my President again.

We've lived four years in some never ending horror show. A lot went well in my personal life in the Trump era - from buying an apartment, changing jobs, growing older - series of vacations and memories. But I know I'm lucky to have been out of the line of attack for so much of the Trump administration's series of horrors. I know people who've directly been impacted. I've seen the images of kids in cages, of violence in teh streets, of nazis holding tiki-torches, of his borish, fat puddling mass of shit on screen over and over again. Enough is enough - and I'm so glad my country felt the same.

A weight has been lifted on all of us. The USA can go back to being a leader and have an equal seat at the table. We can quickly undo a lot of the issues of the worst impulses of the Trump campaign - the feckless decisions to pull out of various climate accords or roll-back regulations. All of that gone. We took a weird turn for four years, but we can proceed further into the 21st Century with pride of what America is. We survived this four year incarceration in our own homes, awoke from our never ending nightmare. It took four years but we've made it to the other side.