2018 NFL: Power Rankings

They're bad, but on the whole not as bad as normal

32.) Miami Dolphins

Honestly, I don't think there is a truly dreadful team this year. Simple math would dictate that there will be some team to win 2 or 3 games. But maybe no team goes worse than 4-12. Anyway, I don't get what is happening in Miami. They've jettisoned so much talent from their 2016 playoff team - which already wasn't too talented and not as good as their record. Most of it under the auspices of improving the locker room, something I'm always skeptical of. I don't think Adam Gase is a very good head coach. I don't trust Ryan Tannehill. I think their o-line is a mess, and the defense is in its worst shape since the early Philbin years. I just don't think there's too much to like about Miami.

31.) Denver Broncos

Again, they don’t seem that bad, but the Broncos have lost a ton of talent since their 2015 Super Bowl team, and unless Bradley Chubb can be Demarcus Ware 2.0, the defense seems quite fallow all of a sudden. The OL is no better now than it used to be, and I really don’t think Case Keenum can match what he did last year. Honestly, I think serious questions will start being asked about John Elway – as they should be.

30.) Cleveland Browns

I’ll be surprised if they win fewer than three games – which isn’t saying much, but when they’ve gone 4-44 over the last three years (maybe even more depressing than either their 0-16 or 1-31). It will be interesting to see when Baker Mayfield takes over from Tyrod Taylor. I like Mayfield, I think he can be quite good in a few years. This year, though? Maybe not. If everyone stays healthy, and the defense gels, they could get to 6-10 or so – but having the defense gel is not something to rely on when Gregg Williams is keen to play base defense 70% of the time.

29.) Chicago Bears

If Mitchell Trubisky improves, he and the team can fly up this list, but that is sadly quite an if to me. I realize John Fox was running a 2003 offense, but I’m not going to just assume Matt Nagy is going to transform him. The defense if it can stay healthy can be decent, but that may be where losing Fox hurts honestly. The weapons are still average – it won’t help Trubisky’s development too much that the running backs are by far the best unit on offense.

28.) New York Jets

I really like Sam Darnold. I think the Jets found something here in him, and I expect the Jets, as of right now, to be the next non-Patriots team to win the AFC East. That still may be 2-3 years off. Their defense has slipped, though I expect Bowles to coach them up fairly well. I don’t see any great unit aside from the potential of a solid rookie campaign which will hurt, but there’s also no clear weakness.

Just Stuck In Nowhere

27.) New York Giants

I still have no idea why the Giants picked Saquon Barkley. I have no real opinions on Barkley the player – I assume he is very good. But how can you do that in the deepest QB draft in years. How can you rely on Eli Manning, a player who wasn’t even that good in the 11-5 season in 2016. He’s not good enough to carry a bad team anymore. Sure, we can see some turnaround by the defense, but I figure most of the players that were on that 2016 defense were also on the 2017 defense and are now older.

26.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is clearly influenced by Jameis being out three weeks, but even with him, I’m not sure what the future holds for Tampa. This is Year #4 for Jameis. He’ll probably get at least a Year #5 before the Bucs think about cutting him loose, but he seems to be no better than above average, and the team is not able to coalesce around him. The good players (Evans, David, McCoy) are mostly aging by this point. Also, there’s a bunch of teams now that have younger QBs, and are timed to peak at a more optimal time than Tampa. Luckily for the Bucs, they aren’t alone…

25.) Tennessee Titans

Most of what I wrote about Tampa is also true of Tennessee, the team who drafted the guy right after Jameis in Marcus Mariota. Look, I think Mariota is OK, but he was not that good in 2017 – worse than 2016 in the same shit scheme. My pessimism is more that I have zero expectations for Mike Vrabel the head coach. He seems someone who’s been rushed into that job without having a long history to go off of. That said, that described Doug Pederson as well.

The Interesting Reclamations

24.) Buffalo Bills

I’ll give the Bills credit for sticking with the plan to draft a QB when they finally made the playoffs. The 2017 Bills got massively lucky to make the playoffs. They were not a good team. They did not have a long term plan. I don’t know if Josh Allen is that long term option, but it has a better chance than Tyrod Taylor. Plus, I do like Sean McDermott the coach; hopefully he has the backing of ownership to go out and develop Allen and not make the playoffs the next 2-3 years.

23.) Arizona Cardinals

Similar to the Bills, the Cardinals re-set a lot despite having a competitive team. They were more forced into it with Arians’ and Palmer’s retirements. I don’t know how I feel about Bradford as a stop-gap, but excited to see what happens with Josh Rosen. I really wish Arians was still there – a perfect coach for Rosen. I still like a lot of the team, but the overall competency of the league, and the tough division, and the rookie QB, puts them slightly down.

22.) San Francisco 49ers

I feel like I have to more defend why I have them so low. Primarily it is because I’m not ready to crown Jimmy Garoppolo as the greatest QB in the league. Garoppolo threw a lot of interceptable passes last season and got fortunate. He had some good games, he had a good record. He’s not going 16-0 this season. The team’s talent is still limited. They’ll be better, but against a tough schedule, in a tough division, I won’t be surprised if they go a relatively disappointing 7-9.

21.) Kansas City Chiefs

I feel like the general consensus is that Mahomes is going to be great, and that the Chiefs were 100% right to cast aside Alex Smith (following a year he led the NFL in passer rating). Andy Reid is a brilliant coach. He may well be right. He probably is right when you expand your assessment period beyond just 2018. That said, we’ve been down this road with Reid before, when they let McNabb go in 2010, replacing him with 2^nd year 2^nd round pick Kevin Kolb. That was a disaster – luckily Mike Vick stepped in. There’s no Mike Vick in Kansas City.

God Only Knows

20.) Oakland Raiders

If they actually trade Khalil Mack, or he holds out, fire them all the way back to 27^th. If he reports or they sign him, I truly have no idea what the 2018 Raiders will be. I can’t imagine Gruden is actually dumb enough to use a 1998 playbook in 2018. I think he can be good for Derek Carr, who was still above average last season. This team is better than the 2017 version, though not as good as the 2016 teams’ record. If Mack plays, if they go anywhere from 4-12 to 11-5, I wouldn’t be surprised.

19.) Detroit Lions

For some reason, I don’t have the usual scepticism on Patricia that I normally have for ex-Belichick assistants as head coaches. I do think, though, that we underrate the stability of the Jim Caldwell-era Lions. Stafford is still a very good QB, but I don’t think the rest of the team is there to push them back to the playoffs. There’s also going to be some adjustment period here going from a plaid coach like Caldwell to whatever the hell Patricia is.

18.) Washington Redskins

God, it annoys me how competent each team feels. Ranking some of these teams in the bottom half of the league was really tough. Specifically here with Washington. I like the move for Alex Smith, seemingly a lower-ceiling player than Kirk Cousins – but Alex Smith admittedly was a great QB last year. I honestly think he can improve them. The rest of that team is patently average. If they stay healthy, they can have a great season, but health is impossible to predict, and a team with little depth is terrifying.

17.) Indianapolis Colts

This is purely based on faith in Andrew Luck and Frank Reich; and TY Hilton; and the OL. The defense is trash. I’m still made they passed on Bradley Chubb for Quentin Nelson – no matter how HOF-ready Nelson seems.

Highly Variable Fodder

16.) Seattle Seahawks

It’s hard to believe how different the 2018 Seahawks are from even the 2017 Seahawks. The Legion of Boom is totally dead. The only remaining key defender from their 2013-14 heyday is Bobby Wagner. It’s depressing really. I hate the Seahawks for making me feel old. I feel like I grew up on the Legion of Boom, and they’re gone entirely. Super Bowl XLVIII seems like it was yesterday.

15.) Houston Texans

Even more than Deshaun Watson, getting JJ Watt back in my life is what is making me probably overrate the Texans. Watt was so incomprehensibly good from 2012-2015 it is hard to put into words or stats. His average year from 2012-2015 included basically as many sacks and hurries as Aaron Donald’s last two seasons (h/t to Bill Barnwell for that one). Watson is also a great prospect, and the Texans have an incredibly high ceiling. That said, out of the teams I’ve lumped together here, they probably have the lowest floor too (putting aside the likelihood Luck gets hurt again).

14.) Cincinnati Bengals

Is it weird I’m kind of into the Bengals a good two years after the Marvin Lewis era peaked. Can’t we just get excited for Year 16 of the Marvin Experience! Honestly, I think the Bengals are fairly decent, a team with no obvious holes in their roster. They have had a draft-and-develop program for a numbers of years now, and whether it be William Jackson or John Ross, I like the current set of players ready to take off.

13.) Baltimore Ravens

Is it weird I like the Ravens even more than the Bengals? Seriously. That defense is still good. The alignment of weapons of Crabtree, Willie Snead and John Brown seems better to me than it really should. That shouldn’t work, but it does fit Flacco’s limited strengths. Flacco can ruin all of this, but their defense and special teams was already good enough to win nine games and come within a miracle of making the playoffs.

Intriguing Competency

12.) Dallas Cowboys

Going with my head, the Cowboys should be a really good team. They were a well deserved 9-7 last year with multiple injuries, a drop-off in Prescott’s play, and missing Zeke Elliott for six games (gong 2-4 in those games). My worry though is that their OL is starting to show some cracks (really sad what happened to Frederick) and the receivers are garbage. I am starting to like their defense, which defines competency.

11.) Jacksonville Jaguars

It pains me they are stuck with Blake Bortles. I’ll say they gave him a very fair contract, not overpaying for average play. Average Bortles gives them enough at QB to make a good run again with a defense that looks to be no worse than it was last year. It would be nice if Fournette plays like a top pick, and Bortles show any level of consistency. Probably too much to ask for, though.

A QB + A Little Goes A Long Way

10.) Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers were quietly a great defense last year, and shouldn’t be any worse this year – though the preseason injury to Jason Verrett sucks. Philip Rivers quietly had a great season last year. They should have been a wild card team, if not outright AFC West winner. I really like the Chargers, but they’ve already started having Chargers-esque things happen, like being bit more by injuries this preseason this any other team.

9.) Green Bay Packers

There’s really no reason outside of Aaron Rodgers to like Green Bay. Granted, that was true of the 2015-16 Packers, two 10-6 teams that made it to the divisional round and title game. I have no idea how Jimmy Graham will work out, but their receivers are fairly barren and new. The offense system has been made obsolete almost. The defense will be without Dom Capers for the first time in years. I have no idea if that is a good or bad thing, but in the end, they have Aaron Rodgers, a happy, well-paid one.

8.) Carolina Panthers

There seems to be a consensus that the hiring of Norv Turner was an insane decision. It may turn out that way. That said, I’m intrigued at a few of the similarities between Carolina and Turner’s great San Diego offenses – from having a star TE, to a RB who can catch passes, to a QB who likes to throw deep. The biggest difference is the OL; but then again these Panthers have a defense probably better than the 2007-2009 Chargers. For me, this has a chance to go well, and even if the offense is no better than last year, this is still a 11-5 team that beat Minnesota and New England in the regular season.

7.) Atlanta Falcons

I don’t know who the Falcons are. They are no worse on paper than the team that made the Super Bowl. There’s reason to flitter away their drop of 200 points from 2016-17, be it growing pains with Steve Sarkisian, or just natural regression from one of the great offenses ever. But 200 points is a lot. I fear we make too little of that drop-off. The defense got better, but is quite thin. The Falcons are a very, very good team, but you do start to worry the closest they’ll get is 28-3.

All the Pieces Are There

6.) Pittsburgh Steelers

The 2017 Steelers may have been the most uninspiring 13-3 team ever. IN reality, they were a bad call away from being a disappointing 14-2 team. I honestly don’t know if they’ll be better this year. Roethlisberger is still great, but did at times get more pick-happy in 2017 than he had been the previous three playoff years, honestly starting to remember his pre-Haley wildness. The defense is good, but never replaced Shazier. The Steelers still have loaded talent, but they seem to be stuck between better-than-their-record 11-5 or worse 13-3.

5.) New Orleans Saints

The 2017 Saints were so weird. They broke out of their 7-9 Fisher-esque slumber by having the greatest draft of all time. Now they’ll be missing Mark Ingram and hoping Kamara has a historic season again. The defense was good in 2017, but it will be interesting to see how sustainable that sudden rise is. Do rookie DBs Lattimore and Williams stay really good. Is Cam Jordan as good a second straight year. Finally, there’s Brees, who despite another good season, is showing signs of wear, threw shorter more often than ever. If needed, we may need to see a Brees closer to the 2014-2016 vintage. It all could happen, but it all easily may not also.

4.) Los Angeles Rams

There’s a lot of questions around the Rams for me. The roster is great, but aging at key positions, like their suddenly good OL. Can the trio of imports in Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib and Ndamukong Suh play well (especially Talib and Suh, who aren’t too young anymore). Finally, the big question comes down to how sustainable Jared Goff’s suddenly great play is. Goff was excellent in 2017, but so much of that seems to be specific spoonfeading from McVay – not that this is going way though. The Rams are a great team, in a win-now period that could get extended if Goff stays good and can pick up the slack when their expensive old FAs have to leave. But that is still a few years away.

I'm So Sick Of Them

3.) New England Patriots

Just please go away. This team, even with Tom Brady, by talent should not be nearly this good. But they will be.

NFC Title Rematch?

2.) Minnesota Vikings

Kirk Cousins doesn’t have to do anything different than be a Kirk Cousins-level player and the Vikings will be great, assuming reasonable health. Now, they had more than reasonable health last year, particularly on defense, but they’ve added nice depth (and Sheldon Richardson) to make their defense a bit more impenetrable. Cousins with Diggs and Thelein should be a great match. If their run-game can take a step up you have a truly great team. The defense will fall off, be it 2019 or 2020 or 2021, but for 2018, they are set up so well.

1.) Philadelphia Eagles

The Champs are always #1 for me. The Eagles, had Carson Wentz been obviously healthy for Week 1, may have been my #1 even if I didn’t abide by the ‘Champs are #1’ rule. They are no worse than last year’s team that was good at more or less everything. I like the buy-low Michael Bennett pickup. I like Sidney Jones as a new slot-corner. Having Jeffery out for three weeks is tough, but the rest of the players are still great. A healthy Wentz and they have a reasonable chance at back-to-back.

Bye, Bye Ginobiliiii!

Oddly, I never did this when Duncan retired, or when Parker took his talents to Charlotte, or when Kawhi escaped his personal hell. I may or may not do this when Popovich finally retires. But the retirement of Manu Ginobili is just more meaningful, and if anything, more sad and more final to what it is the last link to American sports best dynasty in the 2000s.

Manu Ginobili was not the Spurs best player, though at his best (2005 - 2007) he wasn't that far off Duncan who was struggling with injuries for the first time. It is easy to overstate his importance, but it is tough to overstate his impact. Ginobili has provided some of the greatest moments in these Spurs runs. He had 11 crucial points, including a dagger three, in Game 7 of the 2005 Finals, a little stretch so important some will argue he should have won Finals MVP.

He had the big three to win Game 1 of the 2008 1st Round against Phoenix. He had a brilliant first half in the 2014 Finals clincher, including a dunk that will live in r/nba infamy, punctuated with a classic Breen-gasm. Manu Ginobili, whether it be long hair flowing in 2003 and 2005, or shaved with bald spot for so many other years, is an iconic figure in the history of the NBA.

Putting Duncan aside, who is a monumental Top-10 player of all time figure, Ginobili is every Spurs fans' favorite player during this dynasty. He had the scampering gymnastics of Tony Parker, but with a three-point shot to boot. He was a wizard passer and driver, and incredibly gifted player who kept staggering athleticism late into his career. He was a gloriously fun player, who made everyone around him better. Ginobili was also smart enough to realize his impact would be better off the bench, being the key cog to a consistently great bench unit. Ginobili was everything.

Ginobili was one of the most unique players in the way he played, his jerky, rhapsodic style, something like a more graceful, kinetic James Harden. His ability to make that step-back three look effortless was stunning. His ability to contort his body to hit reverse layup after reverse layup was amazing. The way he popularized the Eurostep was fundamental to the modern NBA. Manu Ginobili's impact cannot be missed. His imprint is all over today's game.

I do want to pause a bit and talk about what Ginobili's retirement means for the Spurs as a whole. It is crazy jsut four years after their dominant Finals win, the only real rotation player from 2014 still here is Patty Mills. Obviously, Duncan, Parker and Kawhi are gone, but so too are Danny Green, Boris Diaw, Thiago Splitter, Matt Bonner, Corey Joseph and so many others. The Spurs are an intriguing team that could finish anywhere between 2nd-8th, but a team of Aldridge-Gasol-Derozan-Gay-Murray is just something so foreign.

The fact the Spurs may still win 50 games (remember, they won 47 last year basically without anything from Kawhi), and that is a testament to the organizational brilliance that starts with Popovich, but that organizational brilliance would never have been a thing if not for Duncan, but almost as much Parker and Ginobili.

This Spurs era is fully over, an era that spanned 20 seasons in earnest (1997-98 through 2016-17), that gave us nineteen 50+ win seasons (the only exception was a lockout season with just 50 total games - the Spurs had the best record and won the title), five Titles, being microscopically close to a 6th. That era is over, and the most magical player from it is the one who turned the light off for a final time.

Rediscovering my Love for the NFL

These past two years the NFL has been a struggle for me. Not because of the reasons that it has been a struggle for so many - whether it be the protests, or the CTE stories, or domestic violence. I admit those last two do of course make me like the sport a bit less, but I can overcome that. What I couldn't was the Patriots winning another Super Bowl - coming from a 28-3 deficit to top it off, nearly win another, and see the public blindly agree the GOAT QB debate as settled law with Brady on top. But strangely, despite Brady and the Pats still being very much great and a likely Super Bowl participant, I'm feeling more interested, more hungry for the NFL this year.

There's a few leading reasons in my mind for this sudden shift. First is the ccomeback of defenses in 2017 (and to a lesser extent 2016). Sure, the Super Bowl may have changed the way we perceived the 2017 season to be, as it was the game with more yards than any other ever. But in reality, 2017 was the most defense-heavy season since the 2011 lockout changed the way we look at statistics - the year Brees, Brady and Stafford all topped 5,000 yards, and three teams scored 500 points.

In 2010, the average points-per-game was 22.0 and yards-per-game was 336.0. In 2011, that went up to 22.2 and 346.8. It continued creeping up, especially in yards per game, and in 2015, it 22.8 ppg and 352.7 ypg. Both numbers fell in 2016, almost imperceptibly, but then fell big in 2017 - down to 21.7 ppg, and 334.1 ypg - numbers that were last seen in 2008. This wasn't seen as much on the extremes - there were no 2008 Steelers or even 2013 Seahawks like defenses, but mostly in the middle and top, there were no great offenses. Some of this is down to QBs missing games, but not all of it.

Passing stats also fell back to relatively normal levels. Tom Brady led the NFL in yards with 4,577, the lowest total for a league leader since Drew Brees in 2006 (4,418), and the first time no one crossed the 4,800 yard (300/game) mark since 2010. The 34 TDs that Russell Wilson threw were the lowest for a league leader since 2009. Alex Smith's 104.7 passer rating was the lowest league leading total since Peyton in 2006 (101.0). In all ways this was a serious re-set. And I loved it.

Defenses didn't dominate 2017, and they won't in 2018, but for the first time in a while, it felt like a fair fight. We got some really nice low-scoring games. We saw some great defensive performances. We saw loaded defenses in Jacksonville and Minnesota - who both look just as good this year. We saw four teams go 13-3, and only one was truly offense-heavy (New England), and two of the best teams were good on both ends (Philadelphia & Los Angeles). The league looks to be as balanced this year.

We saw team's not have to rely on throwing 45 times a game, or 300 yards a game, or anything else that felt more like Madden than real football. Sure, maybe the new tackling rules ruins all of this (I doubt, since at most it looks like it will impact on average 1-3 plays a game). On the whole, there is no reason to expect it to go away any time soon.

The second reason is the new crop of QBs is finally seeming strong enough to take over from the Manning/Brady/Brees/Rodgers/Roethlibserger/Rivers era of great QBs. Guys like Carson Wentz, and to a lesser extent Jared Goff, look worthy. No one is at that HOF level yet, but that was a truly steriod-era like confluence of brilliance - or for a more apt comparison, like the Big-4 in men's tennis. Players like Marcus Mariota, or the new rookies who all seem competent in their preseason debuts (Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Mayfield). Then there's guys like Prescott and Carr and Watson and so many other intriguing young players.

I think this extends to a new era of coach as well, a turn back to the Walsh-ian tree after the Belichick & Parcells trees becoming stronger the preceding 5-10 years. Doug Pederson heads the list, but now we can see if the same happens with Matt Nagy in Chicago, or can conintue with McVay and Kyle Shanahan for their teams. For the first time in a while, I would say 75% of the league seems to have a very competent head coach.

The NFL is still polarized. It seems inevitable barring a Brady injury the Patriots will win 12+ games for the 9th straight year. It seems equally inevitable the Browns will continue to be bad. But in between there is so much to look forward to in 2018.

It's also getting to a point that my favorite years following the game are far enough away know that I've been forced to move on and look for what's next. My favorite season ever following the NFL is now 10 years old. Arguably my second favorite (2012) is six years old. Most teams have changed coaches or QBs or both. The few that have not have QBs in their late 30's if not 40's. Time moves on. So do my interests, and what I like to see in my football.

The league may not seem healthy, but to me, the games itself are as good as ever. The quality has reached a better equilibrium than three or four years ago. The QBs are all young and interesting. The coaching has gotten better. The sport is better, and even if we are starting the long, slow, death-march to a 6th Patriots Super Bowl, I'm OK being along to watch everything else during that ride.

The Year After, Pt. 2

I shouldn't complain, because they won the World Series last year in the most dramatic way (well, Games 2 & 5 at least).

I shouldn't complain, because they had two of the top 10 prospects in baseball entering this season.

I shouldn't complain because they have the best pitching staff in baseball, and a Top-10 offense despite so many players missing time and/or having suprisingly weak years.

I shouldn't complain, because as I said a few points ago, this team won the World Series last year. How spoiled should I be?

But you know what, when there's a chance they miss the playoffs entirely, losing out to two teams in Oakland & Seattle who they are way better than despite the injuries and everything else, I am going to complain.

We don't know how long this incarnation of the Astros has. Maybe Carlos Correa never improves off his 6-win in 110 games 2017 season - he's having a relative season from hell this year. Maybe Altuve has peaked, a year before his extension kicks in. Maybe Kyle Tucker never fulfills his promise (though we should probably lay off a 21-year old). Maybe the pitching staff is never this good again. ALl these things could happen. The Astros could potentially assemble this insane run of talent and maybe never do better than 2017 - an 101-win season and a World Series win.

That shouln't be the case. This year, the mean projection for the Astros was 101 wins. They'll likely fall short (thought it isn't impossible they end on some crazy run). By run differential they are more or less as good as expected, but in reality they are not, and in an increasingly polarized AL, the A's and Mariners are right there despite having way worse point differentials. This was supposed to be the start of an Astros dynasty - and likely they'll be right there with Boston in preseason projections next year - but it seems like a step backwards.

In a way, we went through this in 2016, the year after the Astros 2015 breakthrough. They struggled out the gate going 17-28. They ended up barely over .500, third place in the division, well behind the AL-leading Rangers (man, two years is forever in baseball). They were still not a great team then,, but better than their record. In truth, you could argue the Astros have always been better than their record - and while modern analytics may underplay the 'clutch-ness' of teams, the Astros, 2017 postseason excepted, have never been all that clutch.

I like the Mariners - I picked them to win a Wild Card preseason. I think the A's are a great story. I have no real animous towards the Red Sox - the rare Boston team I don't innately hate (having the Astros in the opposite conference most of my life, and then beat them last year in the ALDS helps). But right now this season is a disaster.

I truly believe if the Astros are able to hang on, get their lineup healthy, and make the playoffs, even as a Wild Crarfd, they can go on a run. No one can match starters with them. Their lineup is better than what is has shown all season. Their bullpen is still good. The Astros might still be the best team in the AL on paper, and aside from the Yankees, are still the team with the best long-term outlook (Boston, in pure Dombrowski style, has mortgaged the farm greatly to build this 110-win juggernaut). But I'm still complaining.

In a weird way, there is a bit of "what does it all mean" that comes into play as well. I had never seen my team win a World Series before. I saw them get to one, and not win a game. I had seen them put off rebuilding for way too long and put out increasingly depressing teams. Then I saw them embrace rebuilding in a more bastardized way than any team ever. Then I saw them win, and not only win, but win one of the more dramatic World Series ever played and one of the highest quality being the first World Series since the 1960's to have two 100-win teams. But what I've realized is that win doesn't change anything. I want more, we all do.

It may not happen. It may not happen in the most embarrassing way - missing out on the playoffs despite having a riotously good roster. It may not happen because they lose to a Boston team that has been unconscionably good - and if it does, I may rethink my 'not hating the Red Sox' stance. But overall, the fact that it may not happen is dampening the fact that it did happen just last year. I wish it wasn't the case, but at the end of the day, I guess I'm just a spoiled fan who wants more; like everyone else.

The Slow Rise of the Next Gen

Rafael Nadal won his 33rd ATP Masters 1000 tournament - these are a set of nine tournaments that rank right behind the Grand Slams in tennis' hierarchy. Nadal has no equal on that accomplishment - Novak Djokovic is 2nd with 30 (Federer is 3rd with 27 - it is truly astounding how lucky tennis fans have been the last 15 years). This is no surprise, given that Nadal is the #1 player in the world. But what is surprising is that he did this fairly easily at 32, and is well on his way for being year-end #1 two straight years for the first time. To many, this is another piece of evidence showing not only how good Nadal, Federer and Djokovic have been, but how relatively poor the next set of stars are. But before we go too far into that conclusion, we just have to see the man that was on the other side of the net, Stefanos Tritsipas, a 19-year Greek wunderkind who is now ranked #15.

Look, it is impossible to argue that the unending success of the Big-3/4 has seriously hampered 2-3 generations of tennis players. There's the Roddick/Hewitt/Safin era that Federer tossed aside. There's the Berdych/Tsonga/Wawrinka/Ferrer era that was quite good, but never good enough (Wawrinka aside). Then there was the Dimitrov/Tomic/Raonic group, the forgotten generation, that never amounted to anything, most of them pushing late-20's now. The hope is the 'next gen', headlined by Alexander Zverev and Dominic Thiem, two players already in the Top-10, and you can add Nick Kyrgios, Dennis Shapovalov and now Tsitsipas to the list.

None of them have truly made their mark yet. They've combined to make just two Grand Slam Semifinals (Thiem at the 2017-18 French), and just two more quarterfinals. But that group has done well at the Masters 1000 level for 1-2 years now. They aren't going away. Zverev has won three Masters 1000 titles. Thiem has won one. They've made other quarterfinals and semifinals and runners-up. They've done well in the best of three format, able to match up to the big-3 reasonably well, but that hasn't translated to the best of 5. Yet.

I think they are coming. There will be a day, inevitably, where the tennis world isn't dominated by Nadal or Djokovic or Federer. Maybe sooner rather than later. The players who are there to pick up the slack don't have the name recognition, but they seem to have the talent, advancing further up the rankings at an earlier age than the lost generation ever did.

We still don't know which of them will truly 'arrive' first. Thiem has come the closest, but so far his overall success is heavily weighted to the clay, which still seems to be Rafa's domain until he decides otherwise. Zverev has done the best at the Masters 1000 level, but has been truly inconsistent in slams, finally making a quarterfinal this year at the French, but needing to survive three different 5-setters to make it.

We aren't there yet, but we will likely end 2018 with two of the Next Gen in the Top 3 (Zverev has a chance at finishing #2), and potentially a third, with a few more in the Top 32. Tennis has been lucky to extend its most bountiful era in its history long past its normal expiration date, but for once the future beyond that era looks fairly strong as well.

Sixteen Years of the NFL: Ranking the Conference Title Games, Pt. 2

Tier IV – The Great Games

12.) 2008 AFC Championship – (A6) Ravens 14 @ (A2) Steelers 23

Review: In the first year of the newly-revived Steelers-Ravens rivalry, the Steelers beat the Ravens for a 3^rd time after beating them 23-20 in Heinz and then 13-9 in a smashmouth game at M&T Bank capped with a 92-yard TD drive by Ben. This one wasn’t as close, but the hits were just as many. It started out in (smashmouth) style with two Ravens needing medical attention after the opening kickoff. It featured sacks by the usuals: Suggs, Woodley, Ngata, Polamalu, and great play by everyone around on both defenses. Every score seemed like a minor miracle. Any first down for the Ravens (198 yards in the game) seemed like a large miracle. The Steelers led 13-0 and 16-7, but both leads were answered with Ravens’ TD runs by Willis McGahee, keeping the Ravens in a game they were mostly outclassed in by a defense that was just 5% better. Flacco played like a rookie in a Conference Title Game, throwing three interceptions and going just 13-30, but timely red-zone defense kept the Ravens in the game. In the end, it ended the way any Ravens-Steelers slugfest should, with a dramatic pick-6 as the Ravens were driving for a potential game-winning field goal. Troy Polamalu did the honors, cutting in front of a Flacco pass and weaving his way to the house for the capper in a hard-hitting night in Heinz Field. 

Interesting/Memorable Play: Steelers 2^nd round bust Limas Sweed had an interesting two plays. First, he dropped a walk-in touchdown and then, in what is mostly seen as an act of cowardly fright, faked being hurt so he could curry up some sympathy. Two plays later, he laid out Frank Walker with a massive, Hines-Ward-ian block.

Interesting/Memorable Play 2: The Steelers first touchdown came courtesy of one of the strangest plays you will ever see. Ben Roethlisberger, like he does, escaped a sack and spun and heaved a ball downfield off-balance. The Raven defender overran the ball, and Holmes came back and caught it, and then weaved his way for a 62-yard touchdown. The play really should have been a sack or an interception, but somehow, someway, Santonio Holmes did what he did constantly in the 2008 postseason.

11.) 2017 AFC Championship - (A3) Jaguars 20 @ (A1) Patriots 24

Review: The Patriots trailed 14-3. The Patriots also seemed like a lock to win the whole time - so mismatched was Brady vs. Bortles. The Patriots trailed 20-10 at the start of the fourth quarter, and it still seemed like a lock. It wasn't without its fun along the way, though. The Jaguars were able to consistently move the ball, but Bortles in the end was felled by pressure, very un-Patriots-like pressure. The Patriots rallied first with a huge TD right before half, and then back-to-back TDs to Danny Amendola, moving from a 20-10 deficit to an insurmountable 24-20 lead. But the comeback almost never happened. First was a fumble by Dion Lewis that arguably should have become a Jaguars TD, but the whistle blew too early after the Jags recovered. Then, on their drive that made it 20-17, the Patriots were forced into 3rd and 18, before a 21-yard strike to Amendola. The Jaguars final comeback ended when Trey Flowers sacked Bortles - an inevitable end to what was an entertaining game where we learned how close a Bortles-led team could get to beating a Brady-led team.

Interesting/Memorable Play: The Patriots scored a TD to cut it to 14-10 with a minute to go in the first half. Despite having a timeout, the Jaguars decided to have Blake Bortles kneel twice and go into halftime. There might have been some feeling to accept the 14-10 lead, but you can't beat New England playing scared. I'm pretty sure Doug Pederson doesn't kneel there.

Interesting/Memorable Fact: This was the seventh time that Gillette Stadium hosted a Conference Title Game ('03, '07, '11-'12, '14, '16-'17), placing it in a tie with Candlestick Park for the most title games hosted ('81, '84, '89, '90, '92, '94, '97, '11). Obviously, Gillette has the clear upper hand in a race to get to an 8th.

10.) 2008 NFC Championship – (N6) Eagles 25 @ (N4) Cardinals 31

Review: The Colts comeback from 21-3 down in a game still to come on this list was as memorable as any in recent memory, but here, the Eagles came back from a 24-6 halftime deficit on the road and took a 25-24 lead after a 62-yard TD by DeSean Jackson. Too bad for the Eagles, though, as Kurt Warner and the Cardinals put together their only drive of note in the 2^nd half just in time, with a 7:40 long, 14-play march to retake the lead for good. The drive featured a 4^th and 1 pitch-out to Tim Hightower at midfield and a 3^rd and Goal screen pass for a TD to Hightower again. The game itself was a wild affair, with Larry Fitzgerald scoring three 1^st half TDs, including one on a end-around pitchback that I alluded to back in the description of the 2005 Wild Card Game between the Steelers and Bengals. Donovan McNabb and the Eagles answered with three straight TD drives of their own in the 2^nd. In what was the final NFC Championship for both quarterbacks, McNabb was slightly erratic at times, but threw for 375 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT, while Warner was brilliant, going 21-28 for 279 yards and 4 tds with no picks. Fitz, DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis and Brent Celek all had big games. It was a nice shootout that was never really boring (even as the Cards took that 24-6 lead). A nice precursor to the epic shootout that would be in that stadium 51 weeks later.

Interesting/Memorable Play: The game really turned on one brilliant pass. It was the Eagles 2^nd drive of the 2^nd half (after a fumble and then a Cardinals punt), and with 6:41 remaining in the quarter, still down 24-6, the Eagles faced a 3^rd and 18 from their own 31. In what may have been his best pass as an Eagle, McNabb perfectly shot a 50-yard pass to Kevin Curtis, which changed the game completely. If the Eagles won, it might be remembered as one of the biggest plays of the 2000s.

Interesting/Memorable Fact: The Game set a couple records that aren’t exactly good ones. This game marked the first time that both Title Game participants won fewer than 10 games (not to mention the first time since the 2002 AFC Title Game where neither team won 12 or more games), with the Cardinals going 9-7 and the Eagles going 9-6-1. It also marked the lowest combined seeds for Title Game opponents, with the Cardinals being the NFC’s 4^th seed and the Eagles the 6^th.

9.) 2012 NFC Championship - (N2) 49ers 28 @ (N1) Falcons 24

Review: The 49ers did something amazing in this game. No, it wasn't just coming back from 17-0 on the road to win a Championship Game. That was incredible. What was better was doing it without really stopping the Falcons more than twice. The Falcons punted just twice in the game, and only once was in the half. Matt Ryan turned the ball over twice during the 2nd half, where once was when his receiver slipped and the other was a terrible snap. The 49ers, of course, played quite well on offense themselves, capitalizing on a soft run defense with a great game from Frank Gore, who had 90 yards on 21 carries with two TDs. The Falcons kept Kaepernick in the pocket, but he had his best game throwing of any in the playoffs, going 16-21 for 233 yards and a TD with no INTs. Of course, this wasn't close to Matt Ryan, who went 30-42 for 396 yards with three TDs and one pick. Matt Ryan's incredible statline just underscores what a strange comeback this was for the 49ers, who played terrible defense all day. The game actually mirrored the Super Bowl in that way, with the losing team having a large advantage in yardage (the Falcons outgained the 49ers by 104), but the 49ers, like the Ravens did to them, stopped the Falcons in the red zone with a controversial non-call on 4th down. It is hard to for 49ers fans to complain about the Super Bowl since they saw that exact same story play out two weeks earlier. It didn't stop them from complaining, but it happened.

Interesting/Memorable Fact: Another example of how well the Falcons played in a losing effort: against a top pass defense, all three of the Falcons main weapons went off. Julio Jones was the star with 11 catches for 182 yards and two TDs. Of course, Roddy White chipped in with 100 yards on 7 catches, and Gonzalez had 78 yards on 8 catches with a TD.

Interesting/Memorable Play: Another example of how the Falcons stopped the Falcons, and not the 49ers, was what happened a handful of plays before their incomplete on 4th down. Throwing from the 50 yard line, Ryan found Harry Douglas wide open on a wheel route near the 30, with absolutely no one inbetween him and the end zone. What did Douglas do? Fall down trying to catch the well thrown ball and turn a sure TD into a 22 yard gain.


8.) 2014 NFC Championship - (N2) Packers 22 @ (N1) Seahawks 28

Review: In what was a fascinating game of two teams competing to play as badly as possible, it ended up being the Packers who decided to make a few more mistakes than the Seahawks did. The game itself was a wholly defensive affair, with the Packers defense absolutely confusing a terrible Russell Wilson into four interceptions, and the Seahawks playing the Packers tight and picking off Rodgers twice themselves. Those two QBs had a combined 6 interceptions in their first 16 playoff games. The Packers built a 16-0 lead, but it should have been so much more. Twice the Packers kicked field goals on 4th and Goal from the 1 and 2 yard line, and once more Rodgers was picked off inside the 20. They could have ended this game, and also moved it far back on the list. Instead, they didn't and the Seahawks woke up. The Seahawks first bite back came on a beautiful fake field goal for a TD. Then a normal drive ended in a TD to make it 19-14, but with 1:25 left it was still basically over. Except the Packers forgot to recover the on-side kick, that part of the equation fell through and the Seahawks scored quickly enough to not only take the lead but give the Packers enough time to send the game to OT with a fifth Mason Crosby field goal at the gun. In the end, Russell Wilson finally put together two good plays in succession, with back-to-back 35 yard passes in OT. First to get them out of 3rd and 7, and next a strike to Jermaine Kearse to walk off a winner. It was a frantic game that changed a lot of perceptions about how bad Russell Wilson could play and still win a playoff game, and how many things a team can do wrong, from Drive 0 to Drive N to lose a game.

Interesting/Memorable Play: The game could've ended numerous times, but other than the bobbled on-side kick, the real 'agent zero' play was the interception by Morgan Burnett, the 4th pick of Wilson on the day. At the time there was 5:15 left, with the Packers up 19-7. Burnett picked it off at his 40, with open field ahead of him and instead of try a return, he slid to safety. It was understandable, but kicked off a horrific series of events.

Interesting/Memorable Fact: Right after that interception, the Packers had a 99.9% chance to win the game. That ties the highest win probability for an eventual loser in NFL Playoff history, and breaks the record for a 4th quarter. The last team to do it, though, was not too long ago. The Chiefs had a 99.9% win probability up 38-10 in the 4th quarter of their Wild Card loss to the Colts in 2013.


7.) 2011 AFC Championship – (A2) Ravens 20 @ (A1) Patriots 23

Review: This game probably would go in the higher section if either Lee Evans gets that 2^nd foot down in time (or holds onto the ball, but if he got the foot down a little sooner what Sterling Moore does becomes irrelevant) or Billy Cundiff makes his kick and it went overtime. Instead, we got merely a great game between the AFC’s best offense and best defense in 2011. The Ravens used every ounce of resourcefulness that they had to stay with the Pats, three times holding the Patriots to field goals and twice picking off Tom Brady (including a sweet pick that Bernard Pollard tipped to Jimmy Smith off of a ridiculously dumb deep pass by Brady to Matthew Slater). Joe Flacco, after a useless 1^st quarter, got into a rhythm, and ended up with over 300 yards, largely to both Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin had huge big days. In the end, the Patriots did what they used to do in 2001-2006, win a close game where they were possibly outplayed. The Patriots offense was able to run the ball better than what most would have expected, but their passing game was limited by a Ravens defense that tackled exceptionally well, making sure. The game featured everything, including a classic Brady drive (although it came quite early in the 4^th) which ended with a Brady 4th and 1 QB-sneak for the game-winning touchdown, a weird matchup where the Patriots tried covering Anquan Boldin with Julian Edelman on their final drive, and in the end, some kicker-related luck bailing the Patriots out.. If not for that last part of that last sentence, this could have been the 1^st of two classics on the best title game day in recent history.

Interesting/Memorable Play: Right before the Ravens last drive, the Patriots were in almost the exact same position they were in five yearas earlier. The Patriots had the ball with 4 minutes to go needing one first down to effectively ice the game. Just like last time, they couldn’t get it. Just like last time, it was a great safety defensing a pass on 3^rd and 4. Last time it was Bob Sanders nearly pick-sixing Brady, here it was Ed Reed playing great coverage on Aaron Hernandez. Sad the similarities didn’t perfectly continue in the ensuing drives.

Interesting/Memorable Moment: After the game, Jim Nantz, before letting Tom Brady speak, rhapsed poetic about Brady being the 2^nd QB to make it to 5 Super Bowls and basically stopped just short of giving Tommy a Happy Ending. Then, in one of my few favorite Brady moments, Tommy took the mike and immediately debunked Nantz’s shit, saying “I played like crap today.”

Interesting/Memorable Moment 2: One of the few memorable images of the end of the game situation that I like to see is that beautiful picture of Vince Wilfork (who played stellar) with his helmet off and steam rising from the top off his head.

Tier V – The Epics

6.) 2015 AFC Championship - (A2) Patriots 18 @ (A1) Broncos 20

Review: The last game in the Brady-Manning rivalry played out in a way that was entirely unexpected, and entirely incomprehensible to anyone who had documented and lived through what Brady-Manning meant. For once, it was Manning's side whose defense came to the party, whipped the Patriots lineman, harrassed the QB, forced timely interceptions and wrapped the game up by making one last great play. The last game between these two titans were not about them, but about Denver's historically good defense outplaying the Patriots defense. The Broncos offense started strong marching right down the field for a TD, but after that the defense just took over. They sacked Brady four times, and hit him 18 other times. The total 22 hits was the most any QB took in any game, regular or postseason, in 7 years. The rush was relentless, the coverage nearly as good, as they held Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola in complete check. If not for an inhuman game by Rob Gronkowski, who had 144 yards on 6 catches, the Patriots might never have scored a TD. Instead, the game was finally decided by Denver's defense making two straight 4th down stops, both highlighting one aspect of their defensive dominance. The first came on a 4th and 1, when Demarcus Ware didn't bit on the playfake and harrassed Brady into ruining a nice little throwback play. The second was another rush forcing Brady to throw a lob to a triple-covered Gronkowski. What makes this game a true epic, though was the last drive where the Broncos couldn't make 4th down stops. On the Patriots final drive, Brady threw 10 passes, three of them complete, and the other seven almost all plays where the rush forced Brady to throw up a lob that was lucky for not being intentional grounding. The Patriots trump card in Gronk turned a 4th and 10 and a 4th and Goal into positive plays, but on the final real play of the game, one last great pass rush forced Brady to roll and throw against his body. Aqib Talib, finally healthy enough to complete a Championship Game, batted the ball into the waiting arms of Bradley Roby to end it. When it was over, Manning got a 3-2 lead in his head-to-head playoff meetings, one Brady and the Patriots would never get a chance to match, and for the 2nd time in three years, the Broncos knocked out New England in an AFC Championship, this time because of Manning's team finally bringing the hammer.

Interesting/Memorable Play: The game really turned on Brady's first interception, which was thrown in the shadow of his own end zone to Von Miller, who dropped brilliantly into coverage and undercut Gronkowski. Miller was the star of the game, adding his interception to 2.5 sacks.

Interesting/Memorable Fact: Never escaping controversy, the Patriots play in this game spurred yet another rule change. No inquiry this time, but the intentional grounding rules were slightly changed in the ensuing offseason, seemingly allowing Brady's "Toss up the ball to any general direction when being sacked" play an intentional grounding.

Interesting/Memorable Play: It wasn't a play, but a moment, but after the game, Manning basically repeated to both Brady and Belichick the following sentiment, "This might be my last rodeo, so it sure has been a pleasure." Him saying this to Belichick got picked up clearly by the NFL Films mics, but the CBS game mics picked up a softer record of Peyton saying the same to Brady too.

5.) 2011 NFC Championship – (N4) Giants 20 @ (N2) 49ers 23 (OT)

Review: Other than Lambeau Field, no stadium in the NFL has as much 'mystique and aura' as Candlestick Park, and with the new stadium coming soon, this could easily be the last playoff game played in the 'Stick, and damn was it great. As the rain slowly went away, the game become more and more special, a truly awesome spectacle of defensive football played in a sparkling, dark night by the Bay. Both defenses dominated, with the Giants sacking Smith three times, and the 49ers repaying the favor six times. Justin Smith absolutely killed David Baas, Chris Snee and Kevin Booth. It was just staggering watching Eli Manning drop back 64 times and getting hit repeatedly, but keeping his team in the game just enough. For the 49ers, the story was, once again, Vernon Davis, who had three catches for 112 yards and a pair of scores. Alex Smith returned to mostly what we think of Alex Smith, going 12-26, but much of that has to do with the insane pressure he faced, and the incredible inability of any of his receivers to get open (The 49er receivers combined for one catch for three yards). Still, with the two Davis TDs (one catch and run for 72 yards and one 27-yard deep post), they led 14-10 midway through the 4th quarter. The 49ers forced a Giants' three-and-out capped with an Aldon Smith sack, when Kyle Williams went back to punt. Then, his name forever became etched in San Fran history right next to Roger Craig (at least when it comes to fumbling), as the punt bounced off of his knee. The Giants recovered, and six plays later, Manning fired a 17-yard TD to Manningham on 3rd and 15. The 49ers then proceeded to dominate the Giants offense the rest of the day, sacking Manning two more times, but only put up a field goal to tie the game. They almost got their fumble (in what would have been eerily similar to the Craig fumble scenario), but Bradshaw's fumble was ruled dead as forward progress was stopped. Then, to cap off this play was Act III: OT. The new rules were, again, deemed unnecessary, as both teams couldn't get anything going. But after the Giants second-punt of OT (set up by a Ahmad Brooks sack), Kyle Williams again fumbled, and the Giants recovered. The only drama left was Lawrence Tynes, who has a history of both huge makes and bad misses, but he nailed his 2nd NFC Championship Winning Field Goal in OT in 5 years, ending a game that no team deserved to lose.

Interesting/Memorable Play: Kyle Williams (who I learned later is the son of White Sox GM Kenny Williams) was only the main returner for the 49ers because Ted Ginn Jr. was hurt in the Saints game, and I'm sure he, more than anyone, would've wanted Ginn to play. That said, it was his 40-yard kick-off return that set up the 49ers at the 50 for their game-tying field goal in the 4th quarter.

Interesting/Memorable Moment: Before the OT coin-toss, the game ref does a little meet-and-great with the players, telling the rules, giving them the timeout and challenge scenarios, and all that generic garbage. Well, Ed Hochuli decided that instead of being rote, he would take the time to recite Shakespeare, giving us a 1 minute 11 second long introduction to OT. The best part of the moment was the audible groan that came on the crowd at about the 0:40 mark of the speech.

4.) 2013 NFC Championship - (N5) 49ers 17 @ (N1) Seahawks 23

I can't wait for the 2015 NFC Championship game. The last four times the NFC has had the late title game, they've been classics (spoiler, they rank #5-#2 on this list). This is the only one of the four to not end with a walk-off field goal in OT, but it didn't make it any less great. I still argue Carolina was as good as San Francisco, but this matchup seemed a little predestined. Thankfully, despite getting gutted the last two times traveling to Seattle (losing 42-14 and 26-3), the 49ers showed up and made this a game. They showed up from the first play, with Aldon Smith stripping Russell Wilson. The Seahawks defense held firm early on when Kaepernick looked like the only person on the field who could do anything, running peerlessly through the defense. Kaepernick racked up nearly 100 yards rushing in the first half. Of course, the Seahawks gave up just 10 points in that half. It took Seattle forever to get going on offense, but the Seahawks finally hit a play before the half when Wilson evaded a few sacks and launched a bomb. The 2nd half was a great Greek Play. First was Marshawn Lynch's great run to tie the game. Then a few defensive battles. Kaepernick threw a laser TD to Boldin right over Earl Thomas's head to take a 17-10 lead, but that would be all. A 4th down TD to Jermaine Kearse on a bomb tied it, and then Kaepernick fell apart. Three 4th-quarter turnovers ruined their chances. But still, after a goal line stand, the 49ers had a chance. Kaepernick was driving them. Crabtree was making a few catches. They had 30 seconds and 20 yards to go, and then Kaepernick decided to challenge the best corner in teh NFL. The best corner won, tipping it to Malcolm Smith, ending a classic in front of an awesome 12th man crowd. The best NFL games seem like events from a different world, a strange unique setting,. This was definitely one of them, taking place in the isolated Northwest. What a special game.

Interesting/Memorable Play: The play will be remembered for NaVarro Bowman's scary injury, but the reason the injury will be replayed and replayed was Bowman, after essentially tearing all the knee, recovering a fumble that was not given. The rule changed in the off-season, and the justly the Seahawks were stoned on the ensuing 4th down.

Interesting/Memorable Play 2: The last play was a great individual moment by Richard Sherman, but of course what is more notable was what happened after the interception, with Sherman and Crabtree getting into a little hissy fight and then Sherman's great interview with Erin Andrews. Sherman acted like a dick, but an awesome dick. Thing is, though, Crabtree had a pretty decent game.

3.) 2009 NFC Championship – (N2) Vikings 28 @ (N1) Saints 31 (OT)

Review: Well, what became maybe the 2nd most famous Championship Game of this era, has now become easily the most infamous. Truthfully, my opinion of this classic is skewed a little because of the events of 'BountyGate', but for this, I will try to forget what I now know. The game itself was a case of the Vikings doing everything in their power to both win and lose the game at the same time. It was a study in drama, with both teams having many moments where their fans must have felt it was all doomed. The 1st half was mostly normal, with the teams trading touchdowns, as the Vikings opened the game with back-to-back TD drives capped off by a 18-yard run by Peterson and a touchdown toss to Sidney Rice. The Saints got their two with a screen pass for 38-yards to Pierre Thomas and another TD pass to Devery Henderson. Then, on a seemingly innocous punt right before the half, the game became a greek tragedy. Reggie Bush muffed a punt. That set off a string of unlikely, and for most Minnesotans, harrowing events. Set up at the 5-yard line, the Vikings gave the ball right back as Favre and Peterson screwed up a handoff. The 2nd half was more of the same, with the Vikings thoroughly dominating play, outgaining the Saints 235-48 in the 2nd half. Yes, you read those numbers right. The more shocking side was the Vikings defense just swallowing up the Saints, forcing four three-and-outs in the Saints 6 possessions in the 2nd half. The Vikings themselves moved the ball right down the field on all but one of their six 2nd half drives, but other than two touchdowns on angry Peterson runs, they ended in infamy. Four 2nd half turnovers, including a fumble by Bernard Berrian at the Saints 5 yard line, and a fumble by Percy Harvin at the Vikings 10, and a interception by Brett Favre (on a play that should've been called roughing the passer) all played a part in the Vikings inability to win a game they absolutely deserved to. They still had a chance, though. After giving their win away, they had a chance to still win, despite losing the turnover battle four to one. On their last drive, the Vikings drove down to the Saints 33 with over a minute to go, when their true meltdown occurred. First, came a 12-men-in-the-huddle penalty, and then, on 3rd and 15 and the prospect of a 56-yard field goal, Favre rolled out and tried to make a play, but Tracy Porter undercut the route and picked it off. To OT it went, and a Saints drive that could've ended twice, but after a bad pass interference call gave the Saints a 1st and 10 at the Vikings 29, it was all over. Garrett Hartley nailed the 40-yarder to give the Saints a win they didn't really deserve, but considering the Vikings gave it away, it wasn't as if the Vikings deserved it any more.

Interesting/Memorable Play: Why did the Saints OT drive have controversy? First, on a 4th and 1 jump rush by Pierre Thomas, the ball appeared to be dislodged for Thomas's arm. He did 'recover' the ball, but by then he was back behind the yard line that he needed to get to. A case could be made it should've been a turnover on downs. Two plays before that, Brees (who was only 17-31 on the day - again, just a bad game for the Saitns offense) overshot Colston, but Ben Leber knocked the ball out of Asher Allen's hands. Even in OT, the Vikings had their chances.

Interesting/Memorable Play 2: That Favre interception resulted in over-criticism for Favre, because had he just thrown it away, it was still a 56-yard field goal, but I can understand why Favre didn't try to run the ball. He had been battered all day. BountyGate or not, it was a beating that elicited a response of "how mean the Saints are" from my Mom. Favre's ankle resembled a misshapen plum after the game. They beat him down, yet he still went 28-46 for 310 yards. It was, in all honesty, the last great game of Favre's career.

Tier VI - The Games that Defined the Decade

2.) 2007 NFC Championship – (N5) Giants 23 @ (N2) Packers 20 (OT)

Review: For one night, it seemed like nowhere in the world mattered as much as Green Bay, Wisconsin. During a asininely cold night in Green Bay (the temperature stayed steady between -1 and -3 degree, with the wind chill between -20 and -23) the Giants and Packers played out a true epic. The Giants set the tone early, with a field goal march to open the game, highlighted with Brandon Jacobs running over Charles Woodson, a pointed statement to the Packers that this would still be a highly physical fight despite the frozen conditions. The Giants added another field goal on a drive that, much like the rest of the game, featured a lot of Plaxico Burress. Matched up against bump-and-run extraordinaire Al Harris, Burress abused the pro-bowler, with 9 catches and 110 yards in the first half alone. The Packers offense was largely stagnant, but scored a dramatic 90-yard touchdown from Favre to Donal Driver: the longest touchdown in Packers playoff history. Then, despite the temperature still being low enough to make it the 3rd coldest NFL playoff game ever (behind the Ice Bowl and Freezer Bowl), the game itself heated up. The Giants and Packers and Giants again drove for touchdowns in a tightly played third quarter. The Giants first TD drive was the most memorable, as they got two straight 3rd Down conversions via penalties, as Harris was called for Pass Interference, and then Nick Collins called for roughing the passer. All this set up a 4th Quarter with the Giants leading 20-17. The Packers quickly tied the game with a field goal set up by a crazy play where Favre, after eluding a sack, blindly tossed one deep and was picked off by McQuarters, only for LT Mark Tauscher to force a fumble which was recovered by the Packers. From that moment on, the Giants dominated the game, but just couldn't put the Packers away. They stoned the Packers run game (Grant 11-19 on the day), and force Packers punt after punt, but the Giants couldn't capitalize. First, midway through the quarter, Tynes pushed a 43-yarder. They traded punts before the Giants forced another Packers 3-and-out, where the craziness reached its apex. On the punt return, McQuarters was stripped, and three Packers had a good chance to recover the ball around the 50. The Packers were that close to potentially stealing the game (they were outgained on the day 377-264), but Dominik Hixon jumped on the ball. After gaining two first downs, the Giants were in position to win the game, but on the last play of regulation Tynes shanked a 38-yarder giving the Packers one more chance. The Packers did win the toss, but on Favre's final throw as a Packer, he threw behind Donal Driver and Corey Webster picked him off. Three plays later, with the Giants now facing a field goal longer than either of the two 4th Quarter misses, Coughlin called on Tynes one more time. The third time really was the charm, and Tynes just nailed the 47-yarder. The Lambeau crowd that was loud throughout fell into an eery silence. They must all have felt that they waited out four hours of an epic football game in epic weather just to see the Giants come in and end Favre's dream season, and in the end, his Packer career.

Interesting/Memorable Play: Plaxico Burress was just insane. He caught every type of pass against  Harris. Quick posts, fade routes, fade stops, crossing routes, deep throws, quick outs. It was just masterful. During the game, after making his 8th catch, he went over the the Packers sideline and shouted "You Can't Cover Me! This Fucker Can't Cover Me!". And the Packers switched Woodson on him for a play, and Burress caught another one. Just an exceptional game.

Interesting/Memorable Moment: Lawrence Tynes would get his 15 minutes of fame, appearing on Dave Letterman the next week. He was, surprisingly, a good guest, quipping that after he missed the 2nd field goal he was "thinking what it would be like to live in Green Bay" in fear of what the NYC crowd would do to him.

Interesting/Memorable Moments: The cold did wreak havoc on the game, and it led to some great moments. First, was Michael Strahan's perfect speech before the game, where he stated "the past is the fucking past. This is the present. Cold is temporary, a Championship is Forever." The cold is probably best remembered, though, for what it did to Tom Coughlin's face, as he became as red and frozen as a strawberry popsicle.

Interesting/Memorable Fact: Something that really helps this game was just how aesthetically beautiful. The Packers green jersey is quite brilliant, and the Giants road uniforms (despite, oddly, not featuring blue) are the better of the two. Either way, with the uniforms, the almost white field and the  dark, isolating feel of Green Bay, the game itself just looked like you were watching an epic film more than a football game.

1.) 2006 AFC Championship – (A4) Patriots 34 @ (A3) Colts 38

Review: This might just go down as the most famous non-Super Bowl in the modern NFL. It was the game that best personified the Manning/Brady rivalry, as it was the first time both really played well in the same game, and that combined with a little comeback, some crazy scores and a great finish equated two the best Championship Game maybe ever. It all started out so normal for Colts fans, as the Patriots looked like the Patriots from their dynasty days, and the Colts looked like little sheep. After trading punts, the Patriots sandwiched a Colts field goal with two TDs that both featured 4th down conversions during the drive. Then, already up 14-3 midway through the 2nd, Asante Samuel picked off Manning and raced back for what looked to be a game-stopper. The Patriots compounded this dominance by sacking Manning twice on the next drive (although they nearly allowed a 97-yard TD to Marvin Harrison), and driving on their next possession inside the 20, until a little offensive-pass interference pushed that drive back. The Patriots had to punt, and the Colts put together their first real fluid drive of the game right before the half. They had to settle for a field goal, but the game was back to normal pace, and, as many Patriots would later attest, Manning had figured it out. 32 points in the 2nd Half later, that much was obvious. The Colts first scored TDs on back-to-back possessions to start the 3rd quarter, erasing the 15 point deficit in 11 minutes. The Patriots answered with a crazy scrambling TD toss after a long kick-off return by Hobbs. The Colts answered that with a TD drive that included a beautiful sideline post route to Dallas Clark. That score happened early in the 4th Quarter, which would prove to be among the most dramatic quarters in NFL history. First, the teams traded punts and then they traded field goals. The Patriots were aided by good special teams returns, but also didn't get what looked like a pass interference call which forced them to kick a field goal to make it 34-31. Then, looking at 80 yards to potentially change his whole career, with just 3:43 on teh clock, Manning threw three straight incompletions. It was Manning fulfilling so many's worst impressions, as he "failed in the clutch." Luckily for Manning, Brady and the Pats, for what would be the first time late in a close playoff game, choked harder. Needing just one first down to essentially wrap up the game, the Pats were first called for a 12-man in the huddle penalty (something completely forgotten about the game), then after two quick completions, the Pats had a 3rd and 4. Four yards away from another win against the Colts. Four yards away from beating the Colts in their own building, and a date with an eminently beatable Chicago team. The Pats went for the kill, as they spread the field and tried to hit Troy Brown on a route that he's run hundreds of times, but Sanders read it and nearly picked off Brady. Manning got one more chance to perform big in the clutch, and that he did. Against a furious pass rush, Manning completed a quick 11-yarder to Wayne, a deep post for 32 to Fletcher off his back foot and a 21-yarder to Wayne. Then, with 1st and 10 at the 11, the Colts did the most un-Colts-like thing: run three straight times, pounding it down the "physical" Pats. Addai scored on 3rd and 3, finally giving the Colts the lead. The Patriots would go as far as midfield on the next drive, but Brady finally threw a pick at a 'clutch' moment, as Marlin Jackson caught it and slid to the ground, hugging the ball. The RCA Dome exploded like never before, and the rivalry, and league in general (I'll get to this) was never the same.

Interesting/Memorable Plays: Three lineman scored touchdowns in this game. One was the Colts pulling a Belichick on the Pats, with Manning tossing a 1-yard pass to Dan Klecko, but the other two made for an eery coincidence, as both Logan Mankins and Jeff Saturday recovered fumbles by their running back in the end zone for touchdowns.

Interesting/Memorable Player: Reche Caldwell had a notoriously awful game. He had just two catches, and two infamous drops. One was a wide-open drop in the end zone. The other was more infamous, as the play started with teh Colts having only 10 guys on defense, and leaving Caldwell wide open. Caldwell furiously waved his arms trying to get Brady's attention, but never could. By the time the ball was snapped the Colts were racing over the Caldwell, but he dropped a simple catch. Of course, nothing is more memorable from Caldwell than his deer eyes.

Interesting/Memorable Fact: This was the largest comeback ever in a conference championship game, with the Colts coming down from 21-3. The Colts also set a record for most points in the 2nd Half of a Title Game, with 32. From the 2:00 Warning of the 1st to the end of the game, the Colts outscored the Pats 35-13, and outgained them 289-115.

Interesting/Memorable Fact: I'll write more about this later, but this game was arguably the game that started the NFL's paradigm shift to offense-first teams. The previous six teams to win teh Super Bowl before 2006 (Ravens, Pats, Bucs, Steelers) were all defense first teams that allowed under 300 points. Including the '06 Colts, the last six (Colts, Giants twice, Steelers, Saints, Packers) have been more mixed, with four allowing more than 300 points, including the three of the four highest totals for  Super Bowl winning teams. The game also signalled the end of the defense-first Patriots that won Super Bowls. Fuming over the offenses inability to put up more points in teh 2nd half, the Pats went out and traded for Stallworth, Welker and Moss and turned into an offensive juggernaut. The modern pass-happy NFL started that night, and all because Brady couldn't complete a simple 4-yard pass to Troy Brown.