Las Vegas Raiders (1-0)
Los Angeles Chargers (1-0)
Tier I - The "Can We Just Speed Up to 2026?" Duo
10.) Carolina Panthers (0-2 = 32-53)
9.) Miami Dolphins (0-2 = 35-66)
Both were relatively better in Week 2 than Week 1, but it's all mirage at this point. The Panthers I fear will be in a position where Bryce does just enough to stay their plan for 2026 which I just don't see being any type of long term answer. The defense is playing like less than the sum if its parts. The Dolphins just need to go ahead and clean house now. I think McDaniel is the type of coach who will do better in second stint somewhere we he learns to grow a bit more command, but it's fairly clear things have run its course. I do wonder if he'll bench Tua at some point as some form of hail mary.
Tier II - The "So Much for Hope" Duo
8.) New York Jets (0-2 = 42-64)
7.) Cleveland Browns (0-2 = 33-58)
7.) Cleveland Browns (0-2 = 33-58)
Both these two had competitive, close losses in Week 1 that they both easily could have won. Well, they took all the good vibes from those performances and decided to lay just absolute eggs. Let's see if Justin Fields misses a few weeks, but more disturbing was the Jets inability to get anything going in the passing game when he was in there against a very gettable Bills defense in its current perssonel iteration. For the Browns, they have to cut bait on the Joe Flacco experiment now. Just give Dillon Gabriel (and maybe at some point Shadeur) some cracks at it. They get nothing in terms of longer term development by throwing 40-year old Flacco out there. Also when do we get the first Myles Garrett trade request / rumor. Wonder if he's already regretting that contract, realizing another team would've given him like 95% as much to play for a winner.
Tier III - The "To QB or Not to QB" Quadro
6.) New York Giants (0-2 = 43-61)
5.) Chicago Bears (0-2 = 45-79)
4.) New Orleans Saints (0-2 = 34-46)
3.) Tennessee Titans (0-2 = 31-53)
3.) Tennessee Titans (0-2 = 31-53)
None of these four teams will likely make the playoffs this year. They've all either had one close loss or two close losses. But the outlook for even the rest of 2025, if not outer years, cannot be more different all due to whether they have a real QB worth evaluating. The Giants don't - even if Russell Wilson had an out of body experience for 62 minutes. Those moonballs are not sustainable in the year of our lord 2025. The Saints similarly do not have their long term answer - Rattler is not that. For the Bears and Titans, well they have the last two #1 picks. Neither has truly impressed yet - and yes the Caleb stuff is worrying - but at least there seems to be some value in what seems like inevitable 6-11 seasons this year.
Tier IV - The "Uh-Oh" Uno
2.) Houston Texans (0-2 = 28-34)
On the one hand, losing to two teams that are 2-0 and are among the better NFC teams (which means these losses mean little for tiebreakers) is not all that bad, especially when your defense looks like it is one of the leagues best units. But the converse view of all this is the OL is every bit as bad as last year, and while Bobby Slowik is gone, that means there's one less person to blame before some of the heat starts getting put on CJ Stroud. Even if the Colts are "for real", I doubt they run and hide in that division so the Texans have time to figure this out. Blocking is a good starting point.
Tier V - The "Sky Is Not Falling?" Uno
1.) Kansas City Chiefs (0-2 = 38-47)
It's so interesting listening to people talk about the Chiefs, and more than that Mahomes's legacy and the "end of the dynasty" talk when the person Mahomes is effectively chasing at this point (Brady) went 10 years in the middle of his career without winning a Super Bowl. Pretty much no one on the 2025 Chiefs will be around when Mahomes will need to really catch up to Brady (late in career). Anyway, for teh 2025 Chiefs - well it shouldn't be a surprise that a Chiefs team without both Worthy and Rice would be a bit fallow. The defense at least had a better game.
Ranking the 1-1 Teams
Tier I - The "Who Are We?" Trio
12.) New England Patriots (1-1 = 46-47)
11.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1 = 53-41)
10.) Minnesota Vikings (1-1 = 33-46)
The Patriots defense was supposed to be good. It made a Dolphins offense that looked lost and broken into a passable unit. Vrabel so far has not been able to instill any sort of punch into that defense - particularly the secondary and coverage units. For the Jaguars, they've been better under Cohen, but still so spotty at the little things. No idea where this Brian Thomas revolt is going to end up. The defense has played well in spurts, but that team had no business losing that game, and I worry it sets a team that should have it sights set on playoffs on the wrong track. The Vikings loss was distressing, as is the fact they have just one good quarter in eight so far. McCarthy also now missing a few weeks of live reps is rough as well. This was always going to be a transition season but I do wonder when we get the first "should they have kept Darnold" stories get written.
Tier II - The "Is This Just What We Are" Duo
9.) Las Vegas Raiders (1-1 = 29-33)
8.) Dallas Cowboys (1-1 = 60-61)
7.) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1 = 51-63)
So the Raiders - maybe it wasn't a sure thing that Chip Kelly, a guy who failed in the NFL pretty notably, and Pete Carroll, whose defense the league seemed to figure out a decade ago, would combine to turn a moribund franchise good? Anyway I only go harsh because also the idea that Tom Brady would be some personnel genius is also laughable. Anyway... the Raiders! As for the Cowboys, they played two diametrically opposite games with the defense showing up in Week 1, the offense in Week 2, but never both teh same. For the Steelers, what has happened to the defense? If you gave me ten guesses, the "Rodgers looks relatively really good, the addition of Metcalf is working like a charm, but the defense has gone to shit, especially the rush defense" would ahve been #9 or #10. Teams are just running away from TJ Watt for great success over and over again. Something has to change - luckily history tells us the Steelers defense will likely improve. But also the age on that unit means maybe it just doesn't.
Tier III - The "Can You Feel the Excitement Building" Duo
6.) Atlanta Falcons (1-1 = 42-29)
5.) Seattle Seahawks (1-1 = 44-34)
This last week is who we thought these team were. Well, maybe not the Falcons pass rush suddenly becoming awesome and it not even being the high picks or Leonard Floyd doing it - that was a surprise. Bijan looks great, and Penix is learning to adjust well to pressure. For the Seahawks, that was just about as good a game as they could have had - defense was swarming, Walker ran really well, and Darnold looked pretty close to the 2024 Vikings guy. They play in the league's best division (two weeks in, at least) and have some really tough games coming up - great stretch to see how good this team is really.
Tier IV - The "Second Year Jitters" Duo
4.) Denver Broncos (1-1 = 48-41)
3.) Washington Commanders (1-1 = 39-33)
This is where your priors still make a meaningful impact as on 2025 performance, these two teams shouldn't be this high. But then again, the Broncos defensive line has been excellent, the offense has generally been very good, and maybe the Colts are a secret juggernaut (probably still unlikely). For the Commanders, the whole "maybe we played a juggernaut" thing is more real with their fallow Week 2 performance, as is the nervousness around this "knee injury" that Daniels seems to have picked up, but I still believe in a lot of what they have. I will say I wouldn't be surprised if my priors are just proven incorrect though and I'm dropping both teams back a bit in weeks to come.
Tier V - The "Hey... These Teams Play this Weekend!" Duo
2.) Detroit Lions (1-1 = 65-48)
1.) Baltimore Ravens (1-1 = 81-58)
1.) Baltimore Ravens (1-1 = 81-58)
When you are a preseason favorite that loses in Week 1, you want to see that team go out and hammer their week 2 opponent. Well? Mission very much accomplished for these two - who both may have had the bad luck of opening the season on the road against two of the best teams in the league. The Lions offense looked every bit as good as the top-of-the-league unit it was in 2024. Goff got time and he was insane. The defense rediscovered a pass rush. For the Ravens, if anythign they were actually still a bit sluggish but the defense became the ball hawking unit they are at their best. These are 99th percentile outcomes for these teams, but still important to show they can pull those off a bit on command when pushed.
Ranking the 2-0 Teams
Tier I - The "2-0 is Supposed to be a Good Thing, Right?" Duo
10.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-0 = 48-43)
9.) San Francisco 49ers (2-0 = 43-34)
2-0 is supposed to be a good thing, right? Well, when you lose in one case your starting pro-bowl QB for three months, and in the other case have already lost your pro bowl QB for a few weeks, and your top TE, adn top WR, well... it just doesn't feel that way. Granted, the best part about being 2-0 is you have a cushion to play with - maybe less true for the 49ers who have two other 2-0 teams in their division that both look some levels of legitimate. But still, 2-0 is 2-0.
Tier II - The "Too Early to Believe" Trio
8.) Arizona Cardinals (2-0 = 47-35)
7.) Indianapolis Colts (2-0 = 62-36)
7.) Indianapolis Colts (2-0 = 62-36)
6.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0 = 43-39)
The Cardinals were a trendy sleeper Wild Card pick (including by me), a team was down to down better than their 8-9 record last year. Well, through two games that remains true, but can they stop this thing where they stop playing halfway through the 4th quarter? That game yesterday had no business being that close in the end. The Colts are fascinating because it may just be that Anthony Richardson was even worse than we thought and Shane Steichen remains the great play caller he was for the 2022 Eagles. The defense also plays better than its talent with Anarumo calling things, which is huge. Yes, Daniel Jones may return to pumpkin mode at some point, but a 2-0 start in that division is huge. For the Bucs, that was a crazy game, but an amazing win. The OL needs some serious help, but reinforcements (mainly Tristan Wirfs) are coming at some point. Until then, they have enough high end talent to keep abreast in the NFC South. Helps that the run game looked like its 2024 self again.
Tier III - The "It's Annoying LA has two good teams with fans who don't give a shit" Duo
5.) Los Angeles Chargers (2-0 = 47-30)
4.) Los Angeles Rams (2-0 = 47-28)
The Chargers look good, they look super competent on both sides. If anything, Greg Roman may be getting guilty of going too pass heavy - which, yeah, is just a shocking thing to say out loud. Herbert just looks really locked in this year - his accuracy can still fail him at times, but he seems so good in the pocket and at least for now in sync with healthy pass catchers. The Rams were supposed to be good, and then everyone started to be cryptic about the 38-year old QBs back. Well, the back seems fine now and they're basically as good as we thought tehy were. The Rams have had a few things go great - such as Davante Adams rediscovering the will to play. They also have a defense that is keeping up its pass rush dominance. The ceiling is super high, but yeah that back remains a bit of a silent ticking time bomb hanging over everything, sadly. It's definitely not one of those stories that will just disappear.
Tier IV - The "Fast Forward to February?" Duo
3.) Green Bay Packers (2-0 = 54-31)
2.) Buffalo Bills (2-0 = 71-50)
Look, the only reason these aren't the #2 and #1 teams is because I have a rule that until the defending champ loses I keep them at #1. But let's be real, these are the best two teams right now. The Packers defense has been ludicrous these first two games - especially after what we saw the Lions do in their second game (and to some degree, the Commanders in their Week 1 game). Love hasn't been perfect, but the offense has still been plenty good which is terrifying. For the Bills, always nice to sleepwalk to a 20-point win without needing Allen to do anything insane. The defense has gotten a huge boost from Joey Bosa and has reinforcements on the way. They have a clear path to that #1 seed given the light schedule they have.
Tier V - The "Well, They're Still the Champs" Uno
1.) Philadelphia Eagles (2-0 = 44-37)
To some degree, you can panic, but the 2025 Eagles have looked very much like what the 2024 Eagles were for long stretches, an inconsistent offense with enough front line talent, and a defense that is just very good and sound. Granted, Barkley and the run game has been a bit slow to start. The offense hasn't gotten out of first gear. The penalty questions aside, the tush push has been sluggish. But hey, they're 2-0, they're 18-1 in their last nineteen games. The defense still looks very good. Eagles fans will complain because of course they will, and there are some legitimate things to complain about, but this is still a damn good group.
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Green Bay Packers (2-0) @ Cleveland Browns (2-0) (1:00 - FOX)
15.) New Orleans Saints (0-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (1-1) (4:05 - CBS)
14.) Miami Dolphins (0-2) @ Buffalo Bills (2-0) (TNF - Prime)
13.) New York Jets (0-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0) (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Atlanta Falcons (1-1) @ Carolina Panthers (0-2) (1:00 - FOX)
11.) Dallas Cowboys (1-1) @ Chicago Bears (0-2) (4:25 - FOX)
11.) Dallas Cowboys (1-1) @ Chicago Bears (0-2) (4:25 - FOX)
10.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-1) (1:00 - CBS)
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) @ New England Patriots (1-1) (1:00 - CBS)
8.) Indianapolis Colts (2-0) @ Tennessee Titans (0-2) (1:00 - CBS)
7.) Houston Texans (0-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) (1:00 - CBS)
8.) Indianapolis Colts (2-0) @ Tennessee Titans (0-2) (1:00 - CBS)
7.) Houston Texans (0-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) (1:00 - CBS)
6.) Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) @ New York Giants (0-2) (SNF - NBC)
5.) Las Vegas Raiders (1-1) @ Washington Commanders (1-1) (1:00 - FOX)
5.) Las Vegas Raiders (1-1) @ Washington Commanders (1-1) (1:00 - FOX)
4.) Denver Broncos (1-1) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-0) (4:05 - CBS)
3.) Arizona Cardinals (2-0) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-0) (4:25 - FOX)
2.) Los Angeles Rams (2-0) @ Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) (1:00 - FOX)
1.) Detroit Lions (1-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-1) (MNF - ESPN)