2025 NFL: 10 Half Baked Predictions

1.) The Chiefs have their best offensive season in years, Mahomes is an MVP Finalist (if not winner) and they fail to reach the Super Bowl

This one seems pretty clear. Rashee Rice should be back after 5-6 games. Xavier Worthy should be better in year 2. The line seems more settled than in the last couple years. Mahomes is still the best QB in teh NFL. I can absolutely see him having a masterful season. The Chiefs need him to, as on paper their schedule is way harder this year than last. That said, I do think this is also the year their AFC Title Game streak ends, as their defense has a bit too many holes, and more to the point, at some year this has to end, no? Mahomes is the best QB since the Manning/Brady/Rodgers contingent that won 12 MVPs between them (5/3/4 for that trio). They won a grand total of zero Super Bowls in theri respective MVP seasons.

2.) The 49ers are resurrected and win the NFC West

I'll admit, this was a more out there take before the Rams started slow-rolling a recurrence of Matt Staffords back injury and what-not, but I still think this is worth commentating on. The 49ers were the big disappointment of last year. Yes, a host of injuries did them in, but they weren't doing all that well before teh injuries. Many have compared this to the 2020 49ers season, where after a Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs they went 6-10, adn the year after were right back in the NFC Championship Game. This team is different, but I think the season, at least in the regular season, goes about the same. Purdy is a very good QB. I think McCaffrey will be healthier. Yes, the losses on defense are troubling, but I like Robert Saleh as a DC coaching up some youngsters. And finally, I think some are overrating the rest of the division. I do see a 11-6 or 12-5 season on the way.

3.) The Raiders are one of the worst teams in the league

Yes, this is a bit enabled by my hatred of Tom Brady - the most ballyhooed very minority owner ever. By most reports, he owns like 5% of the team, adn someone we're suppsoed to believe this win-above-all-costs-including-my-family asshole is going to magically make one of the worst franchises successful? Also, unless Pete Carroll has decided to change the way he calls defense, I can see that side of the ball struggling. The OL is tough, and Geno can still throw some picks. Couple that with a very tough division and schedule I can see a trainwreck type season in store.

4.) The Cowboys finish higher than the Commanders

The Commanders were not 12-5 good last year. Granted, they were like 10-7 good. I'm in no way saying they were a bad team. But they had everything go right, including a hail mary win and a few other ridiculous wins too. I don't see them falling much below where they were last year, but they don't have to do so for a Cowboys team that ideally will have a healthy Dak Prescott to pass them. I believe in Dak and the core of the Cowboys. I think the hiring of Brian Schottenheimer was uninspired, but much like the Mike McCarthy one that came before it, uninspired is usually still decent for a year or two. The Cowboys have a lot of challenges in more of a 3-4 year window, but for the next year or two this team is still top heavy enough to be good.

5.) The Cardinals finish higher than the Rams

Again, with Matt Stafford now sleeping in hyperbaric chambers or what-not, this doesn't seem too hot. For the second straight year, I'm going to put some weird stock in the Cardinals, on Jonathan Gannon finding some diamonds in teh rough of that defense, and Kyler doing better in year two in that offense, and more than that, Marvin Harrison doing better in year 2. No WR as reputed as him coming into teh NFL has not turned into a great WR in quite a while. He was definitely a disappointment in Year 1, but I'm willing to chalk that up to randomness and say the true ability is still there.

6.) Caleb Williams has a better season than Bo Nix

Caleb Williams had a rough rookie year. That much is obvious. His OL was rough, but he had weapons. There was no real cohesion to that offense. Ben Johnson should help fix that. Bo Nix has good weapons, and a good OL and a good playcaller in Sean Payton. Not much has changed on the Nix side of things, but I think the combination of Ben Johnson, and having another year in the NFL, will calm things down for Caleb. I do think Ben Johnson can reign in that "extend every play too much" trait that Williams has had dating abck to USC. There's a reason he was seen as a generational prospect, and Nix an overdraft at #10. Yeah, maybe the football world was wrong on both accounts, but I just don't see that as likely.

7.) The Bucs just remain Really Good

The Bucs quietly had a great season last year by underlying numbers. They lsot early in the playoffs, which was disappointing, but decided to run it all back. Yeah, there is a risk in running it back with what is a generally aging team, and there's a further risk in trusting the Mayfield-led offense that will be on its third offensive coordinator in as many seasons. Of course, maybe the two OCs only looked so good because of the composite parts the Bucs have. I love Mayfield in that offense. I like the prospect of the run game and still like the strength of that defense. The Buccaneers to me are still clearly the best team in that division, unless Penix has a huge rise in year 2. I don't see that happening, and more than anything against a weak schedule, see the Bucs challenging for the #2 seed.

8.) The Packers finish 3rd or 4th

Yeah, this might be my hottest take. Everyone loves the NFC North - and with good reason. Three 11+ win teams last year, two of them winning 14+. The last place team with the generational QB and hot coach. Many are predicting one of the two 14+ wins team to tumble - either the Lions from continued talent and OC/DC drain, or the Vikings turning to a rookie in replacing Darnold. Maybe one of those things happen, but I doubt both do, and that combined with my Bears love see me thinking the Packers being the most disappointing team of the season. Lost in that campaign last year was that many units took a step back. Jordan Love is not all taht young, and I'm not sure Matt Lafleur can coach the bad stuff out of him. The lack of a true #1 option is still there. The defense is good not great. I see way too many people talking them up as one of the best rosters in the NFL, and while there are no obvious huge weaknesses, I also see no world-beating units either.

9.) Two AFC South teams make the playoffs

People mock the AFC South, and for good reason. What with the constant Saturday 4:30pm Texans Invitational last year (and in 2023, 2019, 2018, 2016, 2015, 2012, 2011 before that...), and the general ineptness of those franchises over the past decade. The AFC South hasn't sent two teams to the playoffs since 2020 (Titans and Colts). I think that ends this year, and honestly I can see any two of the Texans, Jaguars and Colts making it. There is talent on these rosters. The Texans should be close to a lock to at least make the playoffs. If one of Trevor Lawrence or Anthony Richardson gets some consistency, their teams are good enough to make the playoffs as well (Lawrence is better than Richardson even at this stage, a lot better actually... but the Colts roster outside of QB is better than the Jags). Call it a weird hunch, or a sign I don't buy people's love of teams like the Patriots, but I think the South gets two wild cards. Wouldn't be shocked if both are gone by Divisional Weekend, though.

10.) The Bills or Ravens make history with their Coach / QB combo

No Coach/QB combination that won a Super Bowl together took more than 5 years to get it done. Many won in Year 5, from Flacco and Harbaugh, to Manning and Dungy, or Year 4, from Brees and Payton to Hurts and Sirriani. Go further back and time and tiem again it is the same. That would seem to bode poorly for the Bills and Ravens, who are now in Year 8 of their respective Coach/QB combinations. In fact, no Coach/QB combination that ever even made the Super Bowl took that long to get to their first. But all those types of streaks are meant to be broken. Maybe it is my long time hope that every all-time great / HOF type player gets a ring - or in this case at least gets the chance to get a ring. If you had to put a gun to my head out of the two, I would take Buffalo, but in reality I just want one of the two to get it done.

The House, Pt. 5: The End

In our long, protracted goodbye to our house, the only house I've really ever known, I only cried once. It wasn't even a ton of tears, but definitely real. It was right at the end, as we were about to walk out of it for the last time. It was about 10:45pm, the Wednesday Night before the Thursday where my parents were relinquishing it. This was after our packing and closing took a bit too long and harried, and I had made five straight trips to the storage unit with remaining boxes and wares.

We were all together, my Mom and Dad, my Sister and her husband. The house was hauntingly empty. That's not a surprise. It was supposed to be empty. It had to be. Yet it was still so jarring. We stood in our eating kitchen, all looking up at the wall at a place that stood a picture of teh Sacred Heart for 32 years, and prayed. My mom led the prayer, and in the middle she started tearing up. We all did. My sister notably cried out "I don't want to leave" after. I hugged my Mom and Dad with more vigor than in yaers probably, and then did the same with my sister. Telling each other we would be back.

I was back four days later. Granted, it was just to the backyard, to pick up some remaining pots and tools and stuff left behind. The new owners were travelling (and aware that we were coming back). But it already felt a bit different. There's solace in knowing that after this six month period where the new house is being built, we will again be either a 4-minute drive or 22-min walk away. But it will be that distance away from something that is very much not ours anymore. 

Going back to that last moment of tearing up in prayer, I truly am surprised that this was the only time in the entire process where I cried. It helps taht the strain of the moving process only heightened the reasons why I felt it was the right time (my parents would not have been in position to physically do as much of the move in five years). But also that this was done in stages. There was the rush from March through Mid May (when the open house was) where we had to pick a whole lot of stuff, rifle through boxes stretching across decades tucked away in corners of the basement, and get the house ready for the open house - including taking a whole lot of furniture away. From May 15, it wasn't truly our home.

The second stage was my favorite which was basically Memorial Day through July 4th, where the house was sold in this process. There were insepctions and some drama around that, but we didn't do much packing - instead just enjoyed the house every weekend. It was glorious. Of course, from me coming back from India two days early to squeeze one additional weekend at home, I was definitely counting them down. When we got past July 4th, there were two more weekends left, adn way too much to do to wallow in pain and sadness.

I wrote in "The Basement" post that I would feel a wave of emotions coming up the stairs the final time. That would be July 19th (or July 20th morning). And yeah, it was definitely a "moment" - but I wasn't sad. I was happy, I was content with a life and three decades in that basement, and more than that getting more use out of it these past five years than I would've expected. Same with the last night spent in my bedroom (July 21st). It wasn't until that collective moment that this was it that it really did hit. We had some incredible memories, incredible times, incredible laughs, joys, celebrations in that house.

My Mom often compared our move as being a positive event compared to when she and her siblings couldn't get their mother to move out of their childhood Mangalore home (a home I've written about a few times). That at least we were moving at a time when the memories would largely be all positive, instead of their house turning into a bit of disrepair. My sister and I didn't really agree with this line of thinking, mainly because even at 32 years of age, our house is far more stable and livable than Lighthouse Hill was. But all the same, I understood it. My Mom and her siblings regretted not moving out earlier. We shouldn't regret moving out at the perfect time.

There's also the prospect of helping to design up the new house - something we started already in its design process (helping pick out flooring and finishes) and continued with nearly twice-weekly trips over to the house in various fornms of construction, from when it was dirt with concrete outlines, to a slab, to a real structure now with some pipe-work. I went there with my parents on July 24th - the next time any of us will see it is likely if I make a trip around September 7th or so. God knows what progress may have taken place in that six week interim. I'm already excited by it. But then, I also need to wrestle with teh question of if I do take a trip to visit the new house, do I take the quick detour to see the old one.

By then, the new owners will have likely moved in (though they do have some repairs to do, namely new flooring). Who knows what state my Mom's garden will be. Who knows what cars will be on teh driveway. It won't be the same, that much is for sure. It may be better if my last memory is walking out the front door of that empty house.

In a way, that brings me full circle, as one of my first memories is that. One of my first memories I can conceive of is myself and my sister just giggling and tumbling over and over again on the carpet of a blank room - so excited to be in this big palace that was ours. Now, in my memory it was a completely empty house, but more than likely it was just far more sparsely furnished, as it is unlikely that this took place in the fall of 1993. More likely it was a couple years later, but it is such a pure memory. Giggling and laughing at an empty house we moved into, proceeding for all of us to poor 30-32 years of memories into it, so much so that we were all crying and tearing up as we moved out. There's probably no better way for the first memory and last memory to exist.

The Return of the Carlos

Carlos Correa getting drafted #1 in the 2012 Draft was the moment the arrow started to turn for the Astros. Granted, they were in teh midst of a 2nd straight 100+ loss season, and would lose 110 games in 2013, so there was "lower" to go, but at least 2012 and 2013 were intentional tank years. The reason they got Correa in the first place was because they were also the league's worst team in 2011, which was not intentional. But their gift for that awfulness was Correa.

When a surprisingly hot 2015 Astros team called up Correa in May, it was the official start of the Astros run. He was the rookie of the year, the 20 year old phenom who ahd a two homer game in the playoffs. He also had an error late in Game 4 when the game was tied that led to the Royals big comeback. I think few remember how close teh 2015 Royals were to losing to Houston.

Correa was great in his remaining Astros years, but also hurt a lot. Sometimes due to freak injuries. Sometimes due to wear and tear, which wore and tore him more than it does others. He was still really good in 2016 and 2017 (6.7 WAR in 109 games), and had a 7.3 WAR season in 2021, when the Astros made their third World Series in five years. But Correa, like all the Astros on that team, ended it meekly losing badly to Atlanta. Then came free agency, which took forever, but the Astros quickly took themselves out of the running.

It's hard to remember that it's already been three full seasons since Correa played for teh Astros. It shouldn't be hard to remember this fact, in a way. Especially since in 2022, his first year in Minnesota, the Astros won the World Series, with his replacement at SS winning the ALCS and WS MVPs. But in the years since, the Astros dynasty has started fading - even if the team kept winning. They made it to Game 7 of the 2023 ALCS, and probably would have won that year's World Series, but lost to Texas. Last year, they rallied to win the division, only to fall super meekly to Detroit. Then this offseason they traded Kyle Tucker, because clearly they were not going to pay him, and let Alex Bregman walk. Of course, 110 games into the season, they are leading the AL West, and just two games behidn Milwaukee for the best record in baseball, but the dynasty was over in a sense.

Why is the dynasty over? Because Jose Altuve is the only player remaining who was on the 2017 Astros team; technically Lance McCullers also, but he's hurt again. If you go to the 2019 team that lost to the Nationals, you add just Yordan Alvarez and Framber Valdez (granted, thsoe two are rather important). Even compared to 2022, only four players remain that started Game 6 against the Phillies (Altuve, Yordan, Pena, and Chas McCormick). Few pitchers remain too. 

I'd come to terms with the fact that the dynasty Astros are over. That this is still a good team, but one clinging to life after years of emptying the farm system to get major leaguers. In a way, trading for Carlos Correa doesn't change any of this. He's 31, and having the worst year of his career. Granted, when he was healthy, he had one of his best just last year, but that is a rough sign. It wreaks of "getting the band together" to make people happy more than it makes sense. But maybe, just maybe, there is some hidden glory in this.

Carlos Correa represented a lot. As I started, his being drafted represented the Astros tear-down in full. As did his callup. His, well, in your face way of playing represented the Astros at their peak, from their 2017 Glory, to theri 2017, well, cheating. He was the leader of that team. And the Astros let him walk. Maybe it was all for the best that they did, but his leaving also cemented another thing: the Astros were not going to give anyone term.

There's a line is Astros circles that's quite cynical, but basically goes like this: we didn'y pay Springer to pay for Correa, who we didn't pay to pay for Bregman, who we didn't pay to pay for Tucker, who we didn't pay to pay for Yordan (which at least in this case, we did pay for Yordan). All those things are true, but all explainable in the sense that Jim Crane seems to be perfectly happy spending money, but draws the line at giving more than 5-6 years. That was a tenet of infamous GM Jeff Luhnow, and the one thing Crane has kept on believing as he washed hands of that regime. 

It's not fair to say the Astros don't spend. They've been one of the higher payroll teams for years now. They just spend based on their tenets. But what the Correa trade shows is there is some heart and sentiment here after all. Correa fills a need in the sense Isaac Parades, who was having a good year, is seemingly out for the season with a bad hamstring tear. Correa will mvoe the 3B, something many thought was always inevitable for him anyway. Maybe coming back to Houston rejuvenates him. Maybe it doesn't, but given they traded effectively nothing away and the Twins are picking up 1/3rd of his salary, it doesn't matter. The joy of having Carlos back is enough.

Out of all the Astros from the core team to walk, Correa stung the most. I loved him as a player. I got his jersey. I was in awe of the prodigious talent and the way he carried himself. Yes, he's never turned into the MVP type player that many projected after he had one of the better age 20 seasons ever, but he's still been very good. He was the guy who was supposed to retire an Astro, much like his old double-play mate Altuve, who very mcuh looks like he will retire as one. Well, suddenly it seems Correa might as well. The reunion may not bear fruit. This team is still quite flawed. It still sucks that they traded Tucker and let Bregman walk, But the Astros are still in first place, and got Carlos Correa back home, and life just seems a bit better as a baseball fan.